November Elections: Who Do You Like?
Let’s start a new direction on the elections. The primary is over. It’s time to talk about some of the important races in the November General Election. We are closing the threads on “Primary Results” and “Election Central” and moving discussion to this new thread.
Here are some of the key races to get your comments started:
Governor: Charlie Crist vs. Jim Davis.
County Commissioners: Darlene Weesner vs. Jim Payton and Barbara Fitos vs. Randy Harris.
County School Board: Joyce Romanski vs. Ron Crawford.
State Representatives: Macky Thurman vs. Larry Cretul and James Walker vs. Dennis Baxley.
State Senate: Steve Oelrich vs. Ed Jennings.
County Issue: Approve a one-cent tax, effective January 1, 2007, to be added on to the existing sales tax for seven years to fund county roads.
There are other races/issues, so feel free to offer your point of view on any of them.
Who’s going to win and why? Tell us what you know about any of the candidates that would help us make a better decision on whom to vote for.
Click on the link below to participate in a “Straw Vote” for each of the above races and the sales tax proposal:
http://www.insitefulsurveys.com/Survey.asp?SI=722026712023
posted by Blog Master @ 10:21 AM
181 Comments:
HARRIS MUST GO!!!
I thought the road tax was for 10 years?
Glad you are showing the poll results after we vote. Didn't like waiting for a week or two like was done in the last poll.
blogmaster
just a suggestion, we need to give more notice to third parties. how about putting max linn on your straw poll. he is running for govenor for the reform party and jessie ventura and ross perot's campaign manager have moved to florida to help in his campaign.
I'm not voting for any incumbents, except one. We need to clean house!
So tell us who is getting your incumbent vote?
Ron Crawford is the only incumbent I'm voting for.
Many political polls are already showing Charlie Crist winning over Jim Davis. This comment from a Tampa blog (The Buzz) may tell us why:
“The problem in Tampa bay is that we know Jim Davis and Charlie Crist so its easy for us to make the choice. Jim Davis is a nice low energy man with strong family roots in Tampa, but roots don't win elections. Voters in Tampa Bay know the truth about Davis. He is a lightweight that talks a good low key game but can't deliver. He hasn't been able to accomplish anything in DC and can’t claim any success in Tallahassee. Charlie Crist can claim successes at every level he has been elected.
Tampa bay voters are reflecting what we all know Crist is the real deal with a charming personality, people like him, Davis is a dullard with a weak personality and no accomplishments. He has never stood up against his party and goes along to get along. A Davis as governor is a disaster waiting to happen. You can’t beat somebody with nobody and Davis is the ultimate Democrat nobody.”
Governor: Rod Smith, wait he didn't make it to the general election, OK then Jim Davis, barely.
County Commissioners: Get real, the only choice here is Jim Payton.
However, if you want progress and less "do everything on the cheap" if at all and then pay big time for it in the future when you really have to fix the problem you had better vote for Barbara Fitos. 12 years will be plenty enough for Randy and he was "asleep at the switch" as our current problems came about without a solution. Name one positive thing he did other then sell County property to his developer buddies.
County School Board: Joyce Romanski unless you think defeating Ron puts more power in Kurt's hands.
State Representatives: Larry Cretul. Dennis Baxley. They both have seniority and can help Marion County better than newcomers.
State Senate: Ed Jennings.
County Issue: Approve a one-cent tax, effective January 1, 2007, to be added on to the existing sales tax for seven years to fund county roads.
Vote yes or your home taxes will certainly have to go up.
Someone started this column with Harris Must Go! My question is why and who is going to be a better candidate to replace him? Fitos... (LOL)!
Added Max Linn to the poll.
Bobby, do you really think this guy has a serious chance to become Governor?
Governor: Charlie Crist
County Commissioners: Jim Payton
County School Board: Ron Crawford.
State Representatives: Larry Cretul and James Walker
State Senate: Steve Oelrich
County Issue: No to Sales Tax
So I guess you are not going to vote in the Fitos vs. Harris election?
Harris has my vote but I think Fitos takes this race:
Fitos 52%
Harris 48%
The women are the ones electing women right now. That's the trend.
Unless the county does a huge sales job, the sales tax goes down. I heard someone say this morning that in their head they know they should vote for it, but in their heart, they will vote against it.
With tax bills coming out the week before the election, it will be a very hard sell. Their timing could not be worse, what with $2.50 a gallon -- guess it could be worse, it could be $3.00 a gallon.
Darlene gets more votes than she ever has, but since 55% is a land slide, Payton in a landslide.
Fitos also gets more votes than ever, but with the commission advertising that it is the school system and everybody else that has caused those tax bills voters will have a week before the election, Harris will likely win. It will be tight, but not as tight as less than 51% as he once won.
By the way, to their credit (or discredit as a friend argues) the milage rate has dropped from 6.3 or so to 4.7 or so this year. Problem is that most people do not understand milage rates and just look at the total on their tax bill -- the majority of which the county commission has no control over at all.
As for the comment above about the fairgrounds etc . . . .
Selling that property and the Dunnellon Airport was the worst single decision the county commission has made in 45 years.
The second worst decision was selling the same property 45 years or so ago. Fortunately, we got it all back, but selling such an asset to pay down two or three percent bonds was in a single word STUPID!
They do not make land any more, and what area in the world except Marion County would want several hundred acres of vacant land in the heart of the county (or city)? Answer? every single county and city in the world except Marion County.
This is a great opportunity year for the Dems, but they wont argue the right issues.
And while I think Joyce Romanski is a fine woman and probably was a great teacher, I will vote for Crawford (with whom I have had many arguments over the years) because, Yes, I do think Mrs. Romanski would put more power in Kurt's hands, and any fair minded person must agree that is not good for education. She is his last opportunity to get three votes on the school board.
--pwf
Rep. Marco Rubio, the incoming House speaker from Miami, has labeled 16 "battleground seats" as the most "highly competitive" in the state in the 2006 election cycle.
Six GOP House members made the list: They are Reps. Larry Cretul of Ocala, Pat Patterson of DeLand, Dorothy Hukill of Port Orange, Shari McInvale of Orlando, John Quinones of Kissimmee and Susan Goldstein of Weston. In Cretul's House District 22 race, his challenger is Macky Thurman of Dunnellon, the son of Florida Democratic Party chair Karen Thurman.
Thurman and the Dems better have a big bank account!!
Don't laugh at Max Linn. He will get votes from many of us who don't like Crist or Davis.
hey blogmaster:
if you dont put max linn on the poll you do the same thing that the big media does, keep a third party from getting any kind of ink. i personally dont think he can win but nobody thought jessie the body could win. he did have name recognition, something that max linn doesnt have. but its everyones responsibility that has any kind of media source to help educate the public. put him on the poll and you might be surprised how many votes he gets. go to his web site and look at his platform, you might be suprised. if you dont put him on he would fit in on this website, politically homeless. hope you do for a true poll. did anyone think thurow, a libertarian, had a chance but you still put him on the poll.
SOMEONE MENTIONED THAT IF THE SALES TAX FOR ROADS DOES'NT PASS, OUR PROPERTY TAXES WILL GO UP. ARE YOU SURE ABOUT THAT?
Anonymous said: "State Representatives: Larry Cretul. Dennis Baxley. They both have seniority and can help Marion County better than newcomers."
Huh?
Cretul, maybe, though I can't point to anything that he's really taken the lead on. But maybe. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
Baxley? He's the chair of the House Education Council. Our school board comes to him and asks for help and he says (and it's in the Star Banner if you don't believe me) "Everybody's whining that there's no money," and "Other school systems are doing it." With Baxley in power our schools should get everything they ask for.
Walker will do more for Marion County from his foxhole in Iraq than Baxley even thought about the last six years.
Anonymous said: "Thurman and the Dems better have a big bank account!!"
There's a reason that the Republicans have targeted Cretul's seat as critical. Demographically, he's got no business holding it. If Perry McGriff wasn't such a lousy campaigner, Cretul would never have been elected. Cretul knows that he's on shaky ground and he's taking the race very seriously. Look how much money he's got in the bank. He's saving up for a real heavy duty campaign next month.
If Macky Thurman wins, it won't be because of anything he did. It's just demographics, and it's going to take every dime the Republicans can throw at it to hold that seat. It's Thurman's to lose.
A 19.3 percent increase in city property taxes was approved Monday afternoon in a 9-1 vote of the Pensacola City Council.
City residents also pay county taxes and could be hit with further property tax increases Thursday afternoon when the Escambia County Commission considers increasing its property tax by 23.9 percent.
Could this be shades of what happens to us in Marion County, especially if the road tax goes down?
Yo, anonymous . . .
The Cretul seat is Thurman's to lose????
Thurman will be lucky to poll 40% of the vote.
I've been told on this blog that I know nothing about politics, but I know this: if you say it is Thurman's to lose, you are saying the people in that district are dumber than those who keep Corinne Brown in office. Even if the seat was McGriff's to lose (and it was and he did) even the Dems in Gainesville will tell you Cretul has done more for the University as a Representative than Perry ever did and they do not want to lose that excellent representation. Cretul has forged relationships in Gainesville, and with the Dems here, and he will probably lead the ticket in total votes in that area. But I want him to think he is going to get beat! He is the hardest campaigner you ever saw when he thinks he is in trouble.
He has turned into one of the hardest working members of the legislature, and one to whom leadership turns to solve problems.
(And no, *slim, I have not been paid to do any work in his campaign, so find another reason to disagree.)
--pwf
I don't think OcalaSlim would argue with you on that, but who knows?
pwf -
I don't disagree with you that Cretul will do the work to win, but I'm telling you, Democrats and Independents are going to come out and vote Democrat this year.
Cretul's only real mistake was getting involved in the same sex benefits issue at UF. It will energize the base in Gainesville. That probably won't be enough to overcome the work Cretul will do down here, but he won't get 60% of the vote.
I see this one really close, but in the end, the Republicans pull it off. Not quite as close as the 35 votes Larry won by in '02, but within 1%. Saying it was Thurman's to lose wasn't quite right I guess, but if the Dems had a stronger candidate in the race..... who knows.
If the Dems had stronger candidates anywhere . . .
But they do not.
And, believe me, the GOP will spend some kind of money to keep all their seats. There are some real issues that the Dems could win with, but they will not work on those issues, instead using something stupid.
I disagree about Larry getting involved with the same sex issue in Gainesville. He did that because he belives it, and for every vote it brings out against him, it will produce two votes for him. That is one of those stupid issues the Dems will use.
--pwf
Very important!! Little discussion has been given the half dozen constitutional amendments that will be on the ballot! Please visit and pass along this link that details all of them:
www.votesmartflorida.org/mx/hm.asp?id=homeails all of them.
The strongest Dem candidate is James Walker. And watch the party spend all its effort on Thurman. Mama will see to that. A real shame that they can't see how good Walker could be for the Democratic party.
The US Senate race is a joke. Why on earth would Harris give up a cushy job in the House, which she could realistically hold for the next 20+ years.
Nelson has this thing sewn up. Independent pro-life candidates just make the landslide for Nelson that much bigger.
hey blogmaster:
i recieved a blog on thebobbydshow.blogspot.com blog asking how do they link to your site. i am not very savy on these things could you please send me an email and somehow get in touch with me so i can do that and if you could explain to me how to do the polls that would be great also. thanks for putting max linn on, as you can see he is getting some response. bobbyd
OK, a couple of responses to anonymous questions on the need for a "yes" road tax vote and why it's wise to vote for Cretul and Baxley. There is close to a Billion dollars in road repairs, improvements and new construction needs in Marion County. Unless we are going to be content with just "bitching" about the roads we need to come up with the money from somewhere. A sales tax is less regressive than taxes on your home because not everybody pays those types of taxes but non-residents pay about 20% of a sales tax. It's your choice, keep bitching about the roads or do something about it and let some non-residnets help to pay for our problems. Of course you may ask, where has Randy Harris beenfor the last 12 years; fiddling while Marion County burned?
As to Cretul and Baxley the "plum" State Committee assignments go to those that have been around for a while and have had the time to build powerful networks. Long term members get the Committee Chair positions and nobody newly elected will see that happen to them. Cretul and Baxley have been hampered in their success because of the Jeb Bush veto pen but thankfully another Bush bites the dust because of term limits!
The Bush veto pen? And do you think Baxley's going to have any success under Charlie Crist or Jim Davis? Crist will absolutely remember Baxley's personal attacks as Tom Gallagher's bulldog, despite Baxley's very weak call for "unity."
Two more years of Baxley will get us absolutely nowhere. As Mr. Baxley pointed out in regards to Sen. Argenziano, there are rules to the political game in Tallahassee, and you know what they say about paybacks.
I might be a member of the minority party, but because of recent events I'll be one of the highest profile Democrats. I have no qualms with using that for Marion County's advantage.
Exactly the reasons you'll get my vote.
Payback will be hell for Baxley if, or should I say when, Crist becomes Governor.
That amendment link Chris posted isn't working. Try this one:
http://www.votesmartflorida.org/mx/hm.asp?id=home
This is a good guide for everybody.
blogmaster
once you vote on the poll how are we able to see the results. after we vote we see them but once you vote and go to the survey spot it says thanks for voting and there is no results. how can we see whats happening.
thanks
Governor: Crist
Commissioners: Harris and Payton
MCSB: Crawford
ST Rep: Cretul and Baxley
Baxley is certainly the best choice; he at his peak influence! Not to mention all of his other great qualities. There is no way Walker is going to be able to accomplish more from the back row of the chamber or a fox hole in Iraq (He's no Carey Baker). However, I do appreciate his willingness to protect America overseas.
As far as this issue with Crist and Baxley, they both know how important each other is to the other(Crist needs the truly conservative votes to win the race which Baxley can provide and Baxley needs Crist in the Governor's seat to keep everything that has been accomplished in the past 6 years together. The payback philosophy, is only done by people with no class who do not represent their party well(Argenziano).
Representative Baxley, unlike Mr. Walker, gets that Marion County is a part of the State of Florida and that while working on issues that focus primarily on our county is good, he also works well with other state leaders to propose/pass legislation that is good for the entire State.This is better and more effective for our cause.
Dennis is a nice guy and all of that but he has not in reality, got much done. Lets get a new guy in there and start over. Besides Dennis is one of those devisive far right guys. We do not need any more of those.
FOR ONCE JFULLER HAS SAID SOMETHING I CAN AGREE WITH.
I don't agree with much of what she say's but Emily is bright and witty. How refreshing!
Welcome Emily and please share more of your thoughts! We don't care who brought you to the dance, lord knows you don't wnat to know who brought me! LOL
hey emily
thanks for the plug and ocalaslim, emily is a man. he goes by cecil and is a nice guy but for some reason like most liberals dont want to meet for lunch and get to know each other better. why are so liberals intolerant to peoples religious beliefs, well i guess thats life. i would again like to invite everyone to the lunch bunch held at logans roadhouse. the speakers will be denise baxley and james walker. each will get about 15 mins to speak and then answer questions. appetizers will be provided by logans. it starts at 12:30pm and runs about 1 1/2 hours. call daystar radio 369-8950 and leave your name and number and how many are going. the room hold 55 and seats are going fast. thank you. and again how do we find out who is winning in the poles once we vote.
BobbyD I have been to bunches of Republican meetings here and around the state. Not once was a prayer EVER offered up to any god except Jesus Christ. With over two dozen major religions in this county you'd think that just once in a while the prayer would be, ya know, generic.
Religious tolerance? Liberals? Its YOUR far,far right that are intolerent. Always have been always will be.
Yeah I know, Christianity is practiced by over 60% of our population. What about the other 40%? Ask yourself, are you a religious bigot? Me say yes.
Here we go again. If slim and bobby d wanna argue, please go somewhere else. It was funny at first, but, frankly, now it just bores me.
Let's get back to the elections. Anybody got a good Darlene Weesner story?
ocalaslim:
1st thing, why would you continue to go to meetings that you didnt feel welcomed. i dont go to the republican executive club meetings for that reason, why put yourself through the torture. 2nd: your comment about me being a religious bigot is laughable, you obviously dont know one thing about me. if you would have excepted my luncheon invitation you might have found out about me before making such comments. if there is one thing im not is a religious bigot and anyone who has ever listened to me for any length of time knows i am extremely understanding of others faiths and beliefs. i might not agree with them but i always leave the conversation open for discussion. i dont know any radio program in marion county who has had two separate imams on there show for open dialoge, i am a roman catholic and do a caller driven radio program on an evangelical christian station and we discuss daily the differences among our faiths. you can call me many things, arrogant, stupid, uneducated, unsympathatic, loud and obnoxious, but a religous bigot i am not. ask rabbi keyes from the messianic temple who comes on my radio program to promote his type of christianity. ocalaslim, before you try to defame someones character you should at least have the common courtesy to try to find out who that person is. maybe thats why you wont print your name and stay in hiding........
I agree with jackie wilson; this is a politically homeless blogsite; neither one appears too homeless. To accurately quote former Mayor of Carmel, CA, Clint Eastwood "if you go far enough to the right you'll see the weirdos from the left!"
I emailed OcalaSlim and told her BobbyD has his own blog and she should argue with him there. She agreed. I hope BobbyD takes his off-subject discussions there too!
I don't know the address of his blog. Could someone post it?
jfuller:
i agree and i have never started the "off-subject discussions", just tried to defend myself when i have been accused of things that i am not. my blog is thebobbydshow.blogspot.com. but ocalaslim or anyone else doesnt have to go to my blog to discuss things. anyone is welcome to come into the daystar studio any day between 10-12n and discussion things on a 30,000 watt radio station. i have no problem with sharing the time with others, especially those who disagree.
I would love to see Randy Harris have to deal with Darlene Weesner as a Commissioner. There would be some real "fun" interchanges between them! Of course that depends on both being elected,,,which I don't think is looking too good for either.
It was no match when he debated with Judy Johnson, and in fact made those of us who grew up a generation or two ago when men always treatyed women (even those we disgareed with) with courtesy and respect. It would not even be a close match. Darlene knows her subject but she does not do any where as good a job presenting it as did Judy, and Harris nailed her every time. This wouldn't even be fun to watch. -- pwf
If we want to do something about the idiots, elect Barbara Fitos. She might not be the most passionate politician you'll ever meet, but she knows her stuff. The technical stuff. The legal stuff. The things that our current commissioners tend to ignore until the county attorney reminds them that there are laws and procedures that have to be followed.
She's level headed - not the nut that Weesner is. She's not a tree hugger, but won't just roll over and let the developers have their way. She's respected in the business community and committed to growing the local economy in ways that the Republicans should be.
AND - She's a woman, and we saw the kind of impact that has this year.
Her only potential downfall is that she's running a bit too mild a campaign. She needs to open up a can of whoop-*** on Mr. Harris.
OK, once again I'll agree with jackie wilson's comments. pwf thinks Randy will pull it out in the last (10) days but I'll go out on a limb and predict that each election will be harder to "pull it out" for Randy because his negatives are as high as an elephant's eye. His core of a couple thousand votes may not be enough if Barbara drops a few on him and he can not respond, just like Bill Glass did to Parnell (and almost Andy) two years ago. Barbara doesn't have a record to defend but Randy does! Randy, I'm afraid pwf is wrong this time, moderate women will carry the day this election and NONE of them will be voting for you.
I'd love to hear some discussion on the ballot amendments.
Yes, Mr. Harris is in trouble. I know several Republican women who are voting for Fitos.
Maybe she has a good chance, but she still needs to tell us why she will be better. What is she going to do for my tax bill?
Someone asked about the Amendments on the ballot.
Amendment #8 on Eminent Domain is the only one of the eight that seems even remotely worth being on the ballot. I’m voting yes.
Check out Max Linn’s sense of humor about the FCAT:
http://www.maxlinn.com/fcat.html
Funny and somewhat true!
Republican Charlie Crist raised nearly $1.2 million for his campaign while Democrat Jim Davis raised less than $149,000.
Both candidates for governor reported campaign contributions Friday for the period of Sept. 9-15.
If Crist keeps up the good fundrasing results, you can turn out the lights and the party is over for Davis!
STRAW POLL UPDATE!
Results as of today (113 participants):
GOVERNOR:
Charlie Crist 49%
Jim Davis 37%
Max Linn 14%
COUNTY COMMISSIONER (Dist. #2):
Jim Payton 52%
Darlene Weesner 48%
COUNTY COMMISSIONER (Dist. #4):
Barbara Fitos 51%
Randy Harris 49%
SCHOOL BOARD (Dist. #5):
Ron Crawford 61%
Joyce Romanski 39%
STATE REP. (Dist. #24):
Dennis Baxley 50%
James Walker 50%
STATE REP. (Dist. #22):
Larry Cretul 60%
Macky Thurman 40%
STATE SENATE (Dist. #14):
Ed Jennings 49%
Steve Oelrich 51%
ROAD TAX:
Yes 47%
No 53%
Fitos over Harris. No way! Your survey is botched.
Dont bet the farm anonymous . . .
There are many Republicans out there who are not happy with their county government, andf the absolutely unbridled taxation and spending. And lots upset over that $50 million palace for the judges. He beat Terry Carey twice by about a point or less (once) and this race will be just as close. She raises $100 K and has someone other than the no nothing Dems advise her, and she wins. If they advise her, she loses by a nose but dont bet the farm. She needs to get rid of the artistic signs and I can only guess about her artistic ads. This race can be won by blunt, direct talk, but Dems wont do that.
If Rod Smith decides not to actively support Jim Davis, Charlie Crist will become the new Governor.
It doesn't matter if Smith supports him or not. Crist will be our next governor. Davis just doesn't have the "intangibles" to convince anyone other that the hardcore Dems to come out and vote.
Crist wins big - 60-40 at least.
I think you have it right on Crist winning big. Davis has not shown any substance to why he should be elected.
Since this is a blogsite, visited by the politically astute, I'd like to hear in percentages who will win in the County Commission races and why. The un-scientific poll conducted by the blogmaster has both races real close and the election is only six weeks from Tuesday and many are already voting early.
Star Banner reporter Susan L. Car gave Randy Harris a great endorsement article today. Her article comparing Harris and Barbara Fitos provided the reason to vote FOR Harris and NOT Fitos. Fitos has no ideas or plans on anything. Thanks to the Banner for giving us the skinny on Fitos.
Mo matter what the blog straw poll is showing about Fitos, wait until the Harris troops turn up the heat on her! Harris will win.
Early voting starts October 23 through November 4.
I’ll stick with Payton and Harris. We need someone like Harris to keep the group focused on costs of government and someone like Payton to keep Harris from going too far astray. With two moderates (Stone and Kesselring) and two conservatives ( Harris and McClain), Payton is the balance. I just can’t see having Fitos and/or Weesner on the Board. We don’t need a left tilt to the Board and that’s what would happen.
I've got a real problem with the people who call themselves "fiscal conservatives," but are perfectly willing to just push the "cost of government" off on the next generation. There are things we have to spend money on, especially if Marion County is going to continue to grow as fast as we are.
There's nothing "fiscally conservative" about voting against every budget for the past 11 years (think he'll vote for this one?) while continually allowing exceptions to the comprehensive plan for developers who just happen to make very large political contributions.
Ignoring the problems of growth, and letting the bill come in years from now to fix the problems, is no different than the quarter trillion dollar federal deficit that GW Bush wants my children to pay. Growth doesn't pay for itself and we either have to slow it down or pay for the infrastructure to try and maintain some level of quality of life here.
Harris is a hypocrite and his talk of fiscal conservatism is a load of crap.
Jackie,
He didn't vote for this budget either. What a farce his voting has become!!!
Fitos is fine with me. Weesner is just too arrogant and far out and I won’t vote for her.
What happened to Gator 4 Life this weekend? We didn’t hear about the big win over Kentucky.
I'll agree with 4:40pm anonymous, the SB article was a perfect time for Barbara Fitos to step out with new ideas to old problems. She didn't, however if you know Sue Carr she's a lousy reporter and forgets a lot of what she's told so who knows what Fitos said to her.
It will certainly be interesting to see what Harris and Fitos slam on each other in the week before the election. Fitos didn't win today and neither did Harris.
Fitos is basicly unknown and Harris has to live down being a long time incumbent. She sure didn't sound like a flaming liberal. The potential for new ideas (and hope) will eventually win a slight majority of votes over business as usual as the problems continue to pile up, not just in Marion County races but in national races as well.
I have talked with friends who are not going to vote for either. If so, then Harris' avid fan club might just carry the vote and win for him.
Well then I hope your friends don't complain about how things are running at the county commission. Simple motto, "If you don't vote, don't bitch"
Maybe its just the lesser of two evils political rule.
It will be a miracle if Max Linn gets 2% of the vote. That guy is not playing with a full deck.
Don
(OTOW)
There is a public meeting tomorrow between Rod Smith and Jim Davis. The 11 a.m. meeting, their first together, will be held on the front steps of City Hall in Gainesville. Also appearing, Florida Democratic Party Chair Karen Thurman.
Macky Thurman will be standing next to his mother with a sign stating: “I'm Karen Thurman's son”.
AGK, sorry I missed you folks over the weekend. Big celebration after our victory over Kentucky. Go Gators!
Interestingly, neither the Star Banner article today profiling Weisner and Payton and the weekend article on Fitos and Harris were both fairly balanced. The SB policy this year to not offer an endorsement will force us all to seek out a candidate's forum to decide for ourselves.
Surprisingly they all look pretty equal so far. However Payton's fundraising success and Harris' high negatives and political stonewalling will return Payton to the Commission to sit next to new Commissioner Fitos. Five weeks from tomorrow and we'll all be a lot smarter.
My picks for winners:
Payton 52%
Fitos 51% yuck!
Baxley 54% yuckier!
Crist 61%
Cretul 61%
Jennings. 54% It's Dr. Liberal!
Tax goes down 55%
My votes? A secret!
I’ll give you my two cents worth on the Commissioner elections. I have a good friend who has been in politics (successfully) for several years. He approaches every campaign, from start to finish, as if he is losing...no matter what the polls or his supporters tell him. Jim Payton and Randy Harris better do the same throughout this campaign or they could both wind up on the short end of the stick come election night. They need to double (even triple) the campaign effort they put forth in winning their last election. Commissioner incumbents are an endangered species this time around.
Interesting that Payton's supporter's are almost identical to Mosley's. Could it be that a certain City Council member has a big influence with supporters?
"stan", anonymous and "nightowl" are all correct. Nightowl's prediction is correct not because of Jennings but because the former sheriff is running some excellent commercials early and often. He's contantly hammering away earning every vote. The same way Crist beat Tom.
ocalaslim's predictions were probably on target except as noted above.
I guess I didn't read the same articles about the commissioner candidates that some of you did. Not balanced to me. One gave a little edge to Harris, because of "nothing" to write about on Fitos. The other gave the edge to Weesner----only because her picture was better than Payton's!!!
For anon concerning Payton and Mosley.
They can stand on their own. No help or influence needed. Mosley won big as will Payton.
Night Owl I hope you're right. I can't even think of having the poster boy for far left liberal politics in that seat. Ugh!
If you're interested in seeing all the Democrats on the ticket in one place, from US Senate to County Commission, there's a big regional Democrats rally this Sunday.
Starts around noon and goes all day. There's free food, so there's no excuse not to be there. It's at Dancing Horses Farm, 8711 W. Highway 40. Hope to see you there.
So who is the City Council member supporting Mosley and Payton?
Posted to the Alachua Political Blog by “PJ” (the blogmaster):
“Here is a thread that I have been picking up on in my travels. There are several Democratic campaign managers through out the state that have expressed their .... displeasure with the current situation with Macky Thurman. The feeling on the street is that there is a disproportionate amount of resources being put into Macky's race. Not only money wise, but also energy wise in relation to his likelihood of winning.
To date, Macky has raised $37,000 with In-kind contributions of almost an additional $15,000. You would be hard pressed to find another Democratic Candidate for state house that has raised under $40,000 (with no primary opponent)- yet is still getting attention from the party. In the fight for limited resources, this is causing some friction.”
http://alachuapolitix.blogspot.com
I gotta stick up for Macky on this one. It really doesn't have anything to do with his mother being party chair. He might have had a harder time raising the $37k if his last name wasn't Thurman, but the party would be working just as hard to win that seat.
It's all about demographics. Right after I announced to run against Baxley, people in the party came to Ocala to try and talk me into running against Cretul. I took a real hard look at the race and it's a seat a Marion County Democrat can win, whether or not your mother is the head of the state party.
There's a reason the Republicans are targeting this race as a must win, and a reason Cretul has gobs of money in the bank. It's not the relatively small amount of money that the Democrats will put on the table. It's a 50/50 district, plain and simple.
Bet I'm like quite a few voters, I'm voting against Harris not for Fitos.
Anon said:
"I'm voting against Harris not for Fitos."
Well yeah, but I would ad that I am voting against a 4th term. 12 years is way too much in my book much less 16!!!! Our lovely community will grow culturally and socially without Harris and thats a good thing.
Face it buckos if Fitos does win what she gonna do? What can she do? She'll be a one termer.
Ocalaslim,
Is Crawford going to win? You didn't give us a prediction on that one.
Fitos will be a one termer until the republicans find someone better to defeat her in four years.
Don't worry, the Republicans are ready to come out of the woodwork in two years for the three seats that will be open. Some very well-known names. With one exception it'll be over in the primaries, but then again, two years is a long way off.
Awfully bold statement, predicting elections two years ahead of time, without even mentioning who might be on the ballot. How about a little illumination?
The Mason-Dixon poll released today shows a comfortable lead for Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist over Jim Davis, 51%-36%.
Mirroring the Mason-Dixon poll, the Florida Chamber of Commerce also today released a poll showing Crist up by 14 points (51% to 37%).
Not too far from the results of our unscientific blog poll.
My crystal ball says Andy will not run again leaving his seat wide open. Jimmy Walton will run as will Sue Mosley. Sue will win primary in a lanslide. Stan McClain is up and I don't know of anyone but maybe Parnell Townley and Mike Sizemore. Last is Charlie Stone and I know Thurow will look at that seat only when Charlie says he has had enough but not until then. No Dem name in that race. I feel a Republican will once again challenge Dee Brown but I have no names.
Sheriff? Tax Collector? Clerk of the Court? Property Appraiser? All unchallenged.
An interesting tidbit making its way through the local and state political rumors pipeline. Anyone think there is an unusual coincidence between James Walker filing to run against Dennis Baxley and shortly thereafter Walker receiving orders to report for active duty in Iraq as a reservist? There are those who are questioning whether someone may be using their influence, with the reserve unit or nationally, to be sure Mr. Walker is “inconvenienced” in his run against Baxley. Think it’s possible?
Don't be so sure about the Sheriff. Rumor is someone, who is a republican, has some strong backing. This someone is young, bright, educated, well respected, and extremely qualified is being courted to run against goofy Ed.
Don't be so sure about the Sheriff. Rumor is someone, who is a republican, has some strong backing. This someone is young, bright, educated, well respected, and extremely qualified is being courted to run against goofy Ed.
Let's see. Six years ago, there were several GOP contenders who fought it out to run against "goofy" Ed who took a department in ruin and turned it into one of the top law enforcement agencies in the state.
Two years ago, there was a long time deputy who even with the most ardent backing of people who put up nearly $200,000 could not pull it off against "goody" Ed who has developed our department into an agency that has a record that no one, no matter how goofy, can debate.
Now let's see just how goofy you have to be to run against a Sheriff who will then have --
a. ten years as a qualified lawman -- that kills the argument that we need an experienced lawman to be sheriff -- he will have ten eyars experience plus 35 years in business and the law.
b. who has cleaned up a department ripe with sex and corruption nd turned into an agency we can be proud of.
c. who took a department and installed a business plan (after all it is a business) and installed checks and balances to guarantee our money is well spent.
d. Who has develooped a department that is so far ahead of other law enforcement agencies in solving crimes that the dust has settled between us and the next one.
e. Who has held the line to an average of less than six percent budget growth in spite of local obligations for national security, internet crimes, porno crimes, truck theft crimes (we are a national leader in battling that part of crime) and in spite of thr unbridled growth of the county.
I could go on, but you get the point. "Goofy" Ed Dean is one of the best local officias we have. He is my friend, he has been my client, and if he wants, I will be back ready to take on whoever you think can beat him. Now, just who is "goofy"? It sure ain't Ed Dean!--pwf
If you watched the School Board meeting last night, you watched Kurt in all his glory opposing for “philosophical reasons” moving to buy the Castro property as a school site.
The price is right, the location is right, the demand has been there and will continue to grow and we have just been through an election campaign where Kurt’s hand picked candidate, David Alvarez, blasted away at Sue Mosley because we have not purchased a site for new schools.
“Philosophically” opposed . . .” Could it be because he is opposed to women being out front in business and politics, and here is a deal negotiated by two women? Or should we recall his claim that Catholics are not Christians. And both Sue and Bernadette Castro are committed Catholics. Wonder if he would be opposed to the same deal, which is a legitimate business deal, if Bernadette was a Baptist and he had negotiated it????? I understand that type of “philosophical reasons” – since I grew up with one of those fundamentalist fathers who hated Catholics. He wasn’t too happy when I married one.
At least it is obvious that his opposition isn’t based on business principles.
--pwf
So Kurty Boy is at it again. He is going to be the odd man out on many votes in the future. After all he is the "odd man" anyway you look at it!
pwf is right on target in his last two comments. Add Mike Sizemore in the run against McClain and also Robert Douglas to run for sheriff. Mike won't win in the general election and Douglas has already had his 15 minutes of fame(shame). No other competition in the charter officials' races, wisely.
Crawford is looking weaker than I expected. Harris is running near scared, which is unusual for him. I hope Fitos doesn't think she just has to show up on election day and win. She may be smarter than many of us think and will pounce in the last 10 days.
Just what has Randy done in the last four years other than be an obstructionist Commissioner? I haven't seen him re-invent himself into anything re-electable.
jackie wilson, you seem to have good insight on this as does pwf; I'd like to at least hear both your opinions. Also, blogmaster why don't you weigh in on this particular topic?
In the above comment I should have said Clark Yandle not Mike Sizemore in the run for Stan's seat. Stan will still win.
Gee I did forget that race. I hope Ronnie pulls it off. Have you heard that woman speak? She's a one-woman taxing machine. "I'll give em this and I'll give em that and I'll do everything for everybody" What a nut! Her dream is my nightmare!
I still say nobody will go up against Dean until he serves one more term.
Hey Puffer (aka pwf) keep your long winded sermons to yourself. Nobody cares anymore. As they say in the print media "You're yesterdays news". Yawn
Thank you for the compliment. I'd love to weigh in on this, though, to be honest, I haven't put much thought into 2008. This will be thinking out loud.
A lot of it depends on how this election goes. Particularly the state house races. If Cretul, Baxley or both go down it totally changes the political landscape. I'd bet both of them would be interested in Argenziano's Senate seat if they're still around to try it. Win or lose, the primary for House 24 will be interesting in '08. Kesslering and Mosely would both be good candidates. God forbid, Kurt Kelly's problems are forgotten and he makes a run. Kyle Gay (I mean Kay - I'm still disturbed by the lion billboard) probably needs to be thrown into that mix.
On the commission, I don't see anyone taking on Stone or McClain in the primaries, at least with any success. It doesn't make sense for either of them to move on to another race. In a flip flop of '04, Sizemore takes on McClain and Weesner (seventh time's the charm?) takes on Stone. I don't see the Dems coming up with any other candidates for anything else other than maybe the school board races. Zannetti wins reelection and Herring's open seat is probably the most interesting race to watch, though God knows at this point who runs.
Stearns will have finished 20 years and finally decides to retire. There's a Republican Party blood bath, all the locals go down in defeat and Jennifer Carrol from Jacksonville gets the nomination. Ed Dean gets the Democratic nomination (beats Dave Bruderly who thought for sure he'd win this time) and wins in a squeaker.
And it's Newt vs. Hillary for pres.
Jackie you are very right about one thing, the politcis here are changing. Harris will lose and that will be the nail in the coffin for the ultra conservative social structure of this county.
Kapooski! Fin!! Adios!!
Young people and artists will flow into the county starting in less than two years. The county will thrive with new industry and a revitalized downtown. bet on it.
Dean is old school and after one more term he'll move to Sun City.
Stearns ditto. Cretul ditto. Baxley, well I don't know what he'll do but we won't hear from him anymore. We're one more term away from cleaning out the old timers. I also think with the change in the county Mclain will be easily beat, probably by a Dem.
Stone will do two terms and there are people in that district with name recognition that will only get stronger. Things are not going to be business as usual in Marion County anymore.
I think you all are right on target about things "a changin"!
To PWF: re: “Philosophically” opposed . . .” Could it be because he is opposed to women being out front in business and politics, and here is a deal negotiated by two women? Or should we recall his claim that Catholics are not Christians. And both Sue and Bernadette Castro are committed Catholics.
Give me a freakin break! So you think Sue is a committed Catholic? Maybe finacially. What happened to "thow shalt not commit adultury". Since when did that not apply to the Catholic faith or any religion for that matter. It's really difficult to sit by and watch someone claim that everything they do is for family, church, whatever when they are kanoodling outside marriage. If I were you, PWF, I would get off commenting on Sue, Kurt or the rest of school board members and their religious affiliations. Egg does not look good on your face.
femdem your 06 predictions, especially the County Commission races? Please also, provide your opinion on percentages of votes per candidate.
I still haven't heard from pwf on '06 and '08 but thanks jackie wilson and ocalaslim!
The times are a changin' and conventional politics will get you second place this year!
As to people looking for a cheap place to live, they'll be moving farther North. Marion County will continue to attrack a more professional worker and a less "early bird" special retiree.
The adultery comments are completely inappropriate.
I agree and I don't think you can prove it.
Question for James Walker.
Why did you decide to run against Baxley rather than Larry Cretul? If the political demographics are as you say, it would seem you would have had a much better chance against Cretul than Baxley. Just wondering.
Anon -- the statements on "philsophically problems" are right on. They have something to do with Mr. Kelly, no one else.
Why dont you try and defend his stands.
And having come from a Baptist background, adultry, for your information, is a fundamental no-no in that church as well.
By the way, I love eggs -- especially my wife's egg salad and my omelets. You ought to try eggs someday. Maybe it would give you courage to sign your name. Nah!!!! Not a chance.
--pwf
On election predictions, I will think about them and post later.
As for "more professional workers" moving to Marion County, yes, they will. But right now, the only thing that is keeping our economy on track is the medical profession, government with the thousands employed there, and the construction industry. (someone ought to check, but I will bet more than 60 percent of the 300,000 people in Marion County get some kind of a government check (or maybe two or three of them) from govt salaries to pensions to social security to medicare to rent subsidies to other types of govt help. Without government money in this very conservative town, lots of people would be hurting.)
If the Villages 1800 home inventory and the 5,800 homes in the multiple listing service inventory do not sell soon, look for a serious downturn locally.
Most people want to see a slowdown in growth, me included, some even want it stopped. But when it slows down, it has an affect on everyone from the gas stations to grocery stores to boutiques to print shops. My wife and I have been there and survived several of those downturns in the last 38 years of printing -- thanks to her determination and business talent. (I'm just along for the ride, she is the brains!) --pwf
There were a few different things that went into that decision. First, I don't like the idea of politicians moving around to find a seat to run for. I live right in the middle of 24 and I can get anywhere in the district within 30 minutes at the most. 22 is a much bigger district, and since I work fulltime, I didn't feel that I'd be able to effectively campaign from Dunnellon to Gainesville. And, of course, Baxley needed to be called out on his record and there were no other Democrats willing to do it.
A comment on growth -
I agree with pwf on everything he said. I'd just add that if a downturn hits there is the potential for it to get pretty bad around here. So much of the current "boom" is based on building new homes. Those homes stop selling and there will be a ripple effect across the entire economy. Add to that all the interest only mortgages that are going to start coming due over the next couple of years and we've got a recipe for disaster. Sure there are plenty of jobs out there for nurses, but when the nurse's contractor husband can't get work, what happens to the 1/2 million dollar home they built Belle Chase? I am really nervous about the economy the next few years. We MUST put some serious effort into diversifying the economy, finding the industrial land and finding the industry to fill that land.
Hey pwf,
Before you get back on your soap box about "goofy Ed" you need to check your facts. I challenge you or anyone else to crawl through the financial books at the Sheriff's Office and find out how much money he spends (waistes) each year. just look at the pay he gives his top staff and all of the stupid useless "programs" he runs for political gain.
As it relates to crime rate and clearance rate. Look closley at those too. Is it possible that crime is low because he is not reporting it correctly or perhaps not taking reports at all? As for closing cases, look at tose records too. How many are closed by arrest or just "cleared" and the reasons that they are "cleared"
"Goofy Ed" has pulled the wool over many eyes in the community, including your pwf. And although he won the last race, it was very close and against someone who was not qualified. The person that is going to come out and run against him is more qualified than Ed in all areas.
It is going to take a very strategic campaign when it comes to the sheriff race.
Being qualified isn't going to be enough. I would challenge the soon to be announced opponent to STAY AWAY FROM THE REPUBLICAN "WE HAVE THIS ONE IN THE BAG" MENTALITY!!!!
The last guy lost because he spent a year preaching to the choir.
This county has elected twice an individual that has convinced them that crime is on the decline.
Possible campaign slogan/message for one who would try to mount a challenge and it is an age old riddle: "if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?"
Thoughts to ponder
Well, Anon . . . Believe me, I have spent far more time studying the Sheriff's office Budget and records than have you, else we would not have been able to take such a very important seat away from the GOP in a GOP country. (I am a Republican and registered as such way back in 1959 but I vote for the person, not just a ticket.)
As for money. He does pay personnel competitive wages. Got a problem with him on that? As for his programs --- funny how similar programs were great when Ken Ergle was wasting millions on an air force and on old military hardware. As for crime, you are the one making the charge he is filing false information with FDLE and the feds. It is up to you to prove it. I will tell you -- you can not provide it. I'll buy dinner if you can even come close. I proved it to my satisfaction before I wrote the ads we used in 2004.
And finally, so a Deputy with (if I recall correctly) 28 years experience, who was promoted to a new high level job just before he chose to retire and run, and now is a Chief of Police. I wrote the ads against him, but for you to try and claim Robert Douglas was not qualified shows your lack of knowledge and inexperience. Robert Douglas did not run the best campaign I have ever seen, but dont let it be said I said he was not a good cop or qualified. I just had an exceptionally qualified candidate who would honestly make a good office holder from Sheriff to county administrator to Congressman to US Senator. No, I am not saying he is even considering such a thing. He is not, regardless of the rumors, but he is one of a very that I will say what he runs for I am with him. Hate him if you will, but you are wrong.
As for the race being close, Randy Harrius or Barbara Fitos -- anyone with a lick of sence about politics wqould have that 6-7,000 vote edge and call it a landslide, especially when Larry Cretul won by 35 votes, and Randy has won by less than one percent twice.
I look forward to your proof my friend.--pwf
Ya know every time I hear one of Puffers (pwf) old time rants it reminds me of E.L Fosters hotel lobby. Have ya ever seen it? Its lime a mauseleum. The black and white celebrity photos on the wall are ALL of dead stars. I had to ask my aunt who they were!! Who cares? Hey Ferguson WE DONT CARE WHAT YOU HAVE TO SAY OR WHO YOU HELPED GET ELECTED.
Anyway....Broderick asked
"On another matter can someone please tell me why I should vote for Randy Harris again"
There is NO reason to vote for him. Hell HE doesn't have a reason.
"And boy is it a shame that Baxley will be returned to the House"
What truth that is my friend! He is a first class nut job.
Well, let me answer the question that is less inflamatory. Anonymous asked "if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?" The answer is no because sound is only recognized when vibrations impact a tympanic membrane, ie., your eardrum. Otherwise there were just vibrations in the woods and no one was there to hear "sound."
How about we get back to the November elections? How much has everybody raised?
*slim .. .if you dont care what I have to say, do not read it. As I told you before, I have had professionals on my case, so I can sure stand what little rant you might produce. By the way, the 11 candidates I helped two years ago in living color might not like your slam at them.
And I care what you write and think. Helps me judge what the uninformed believes.
--pwf
pwf, I did not say, nor do I believe that Douglas was not, is not a good cop. He is a great cop. I simply said, or meant to say that he was not qualified to be the Sheriff. Just listen to him talk, his educatinoal background, his lack of command experience. Robert is a great police officer and is making a great Chief. There is a big difference between being a great cop and leading an agency. You need the experience of being a cop, sure, but you also need the administrative and political savy to lead an entire organization.
No one, as with me, have no issue with anyone paying a fair wage. I am talking about the amount of supervisors he has. Four, yes four Chiefs of Staff, he really only needs one. Those cost us about 500,000 per year in base salary. Eight Majors, eight assistant majors, countless captains, and so on. He has more supervisors than regular employees. Soundslike a good democrat to me, lager government, more supervision....
Programs, I'll just mentino one here, others for a leter time. Why did he spend $15,000.00 to start a Bagpipe Band. How does that help him fight crime.
Crime is down in the county, city, state, nation. is he the catalyst for the natinoal trend that has been going on for the past 16 years?
As for the proof about the misrepresentation of crime statistics and closure rates, be patient my large friend, there is proof, it is already gathered, and when it is released, you along with your goofy friend will be embarrassed.
You know, the unfortunate thing is that the Star Banner knows about most of this, but since they have taken the role as the Sheriff's personal representative, I know that they won'tprint it. I really won't need the dinner.
And I never said that the anouncement would be soon. All I said was someone was being courted to run. I don't think that actually I know that, he (or she) has not decided yet, still plenty of time.
In the words of Forest Gump, "That's all I've got to say abobut that." I'll post again in 2007.
Anonymous, if I remember correctly, and I could be wrong but do not think so, the money for the bag pipe band was all donations for that specific purpose. Just for you, I will double check and post it.
As for the number of administrators at the MCSO, I challange you to look at any $65-$70 million organization and you will find that $500,000 (actually it is more with benefits) is a very low price to pay for qualified administrators. Check other top law enforcement agencies, look at their command structure, and check the record -- we are in good shape.
If I remnember correctly and have not looked in two years, Marion County has 22 or 23 administrators running various departments and five bureau chiefs on top of them plus an assistant county administrators and her boss, Gen Pat Howard.
As for Robert, I am glad you agree he is a good cop and making a good chie. I am also glad you don't have the courage to sign your name, because now he won't feel bad seeing you say "Just listen to him talk, his educatinoal background, his lack of command experience." Lak of command experience???? Check facts befoire talking my friend. That was his biggest asset in the campaign, and a touch nut for us to crack opposing him.
You will also find across the state and nation that top administrators of agencies such as the Sheriff (and other corporate CEOs, do not necessarily need as you say "You need the experience of being a cop," or work within that agency, but you are correct that "need the administrative and political savy to lead an entire organization." You just renominated Sheriff Ed Dean!
My friend, I don't care if you like Ed Dean or not. That is your loss. But to call such a fine gentleman, public servant and community volunbteer "goofy" reflects on you not on him.
See you in 2007. --pwf
First, ocalaslim. Your bitterness is obvious everytime your fingers hit the keyboard especially concerning pwf. Yes he has been around a long time but at least he gets his facts accurate. Example, he wouldn't make a comment about E.L. Fosters current hotel lobby since that was sold by the former mayor over a year ago. Wake up slim. Your identity isn't that big of a secret!
My friend pwf, I will challenge you on one thing. No one is accusing the sheriff of filing false information. The fact is the sheriff is NOT FILING INFO AT ALL. There are situations just in the last year that would make your head spin.
I have to admit OcalaSlim does make some real valid arguments. I have read many of the archives on the blog and pwf does repeat the same stuff over and over. I have spoke with other folks who have known the guy for years and they back up what Slim gripes about. I agree that maybe pwf could tone down his attacks on people he does not care for. Pwf comes across like John Lund. He constantly berates people he disagrees with, he makes a lot of mistakes and he shows no candor when he is shown to be wrong. Pwf is not the end all of politics in this county, no matter what he wants folks to beleive.
Bravo jfuller!! I couldn't agree more! Paul is a political hack and always has been. Like Lund he has all the answers but has never had the you-know-what to run himself.
Now, now folks let's be nice. I know PWF and Lund. A John Lund PWF is not!!!
ok I guess that was going a little to far. After all there is nobody like Lund.
Aws for me running for office, I promise you that the very moment that Jescus Christ tells me to run, I will do it. In the meantime, I will do wehat I believe I should do: gather information, and help people I believe in run and (most of the time) win -- far more than anyone has the right to expect. I've done it for more than 175 candiadets thru the years and they come back. Sorry some people disagree.
And I have never thought I was the end all of politics. One thing about it, when people are spending their time going after me, they leave others alone. And yes, I have looked at the records of the Sheriff's office the past year. I will still take his record in two years (if he asks me) and will win again. Guaranteed! --pwf
Look at that nasty Irish temper!
Halloween is coming up and I thought I'd post the "Marion County Night of the Living Dead". All of the political figures that are zombies or soon to be departed.
We gotta make room for the new names and faces here in Marion. These ole souls are starting to get downright stinky! So get your shovels and torches! WhoHa Ha Ha
Hey, Blogmaster what's the latest on the un-scientific polling?
I agree with the most recent corrective comments; pwf is nothing like John Lund! Thank goodness there is only one John; he's the semi-literate President of the CAVE Society, Citizens Against Virtually Everything.
His typical listener (all 7 of them) appreciates John because he will identify the individual or group that is responsible for their sorry lot in life!
Don't remotely put pwf in that camp because he's intelligent and articulate; while John is neither.
I must be politically homeless because I like the comments of pwf and ocalaslim!
*slim . . that was not me. I was at a Masonic meeting in Leesburg until just now. --pwf
We will post an update of the "Straw Poll" results tomorrow AM.
When is Barbara Fitos going to step up her campaign? I haven't seen nor heard much from her at all.
Can she win if she does nothing or does she have to go negative on Randy which shouldn't be difficult; just tell what he has (not) done?
General question, what percentage can/will be gained by a challenger due to the negative vote against an incumbent vote alone?
I see with the (former) Congressman Foley bombshell the Republicans are going to have to fight against the accusation that they can't be trusted with our children's safety now or our safety from terrorists. Will this mistrust trickle down to the local level with Republicans?
STRAW POLL UPDATE!
Results as of today (163 participants):
GOVERNOR:
Charlie Crist 50%
Jim Davis 34%
Max Linn 16%
COUNTY COMMISSIONER (Dist. #2):
Jim Payton 50%
Darlene Weesner 50%
COUNTY COMMISSIONER (Dist. #4):
Barbara Fitos 48%
Randy Harris 52%
SCHOOL BOARD (Dist. #5):
Ron Crawford 55%
Joyce Romanski 45%
STATE REP. (Dist. #24):
Dennis Baxley 52%
James Walker 48%
STATE REP. (Dist. #22):
Larry Cretul 61%
Macky Thurman 39%
STATE SENATE (Dist. #14):
Ed Jennings 48%
Steve Oelrich 52%
ROAD TAX:
Yes 48%
No 52%
For every Republican Mark Foley you can find an equivalent among the Democrats. Will Foley’s situation impact the local level? I don’t think so.
However, what will are misleading/false County Commission newspaper ads (paid for with our money) concocted and approved by politicians like Jim Payton and Randy Harris misrepresenting facts about our tax bill. Shameful behavior and they should both suffer at the ballot box!
Critic . . .
Remember, it takes three votes to spend the money, not just two. Check to see what the vote was to spen d the money, I dunno. The ad was quite a spin job, although it appeared to be factually correct. I see the Banner was not impressed after taking their (oops, our money) money for the ad.
Those tax bills going in the mail ten days before the election will, as I said some time ago, make a big impact on the election. It could be a very interesting night.
--pwf
NOTICED THAT WEESNER HAS GAINED GROUND AND FITOS LOST GROUND SINCE THE LAST POLL UPDATE. IS DARLENE WORKING HARDER THAN OTHERS?
Randy Harris was the Commissioner that pushed the ads. You'd know that if you watched the Board meetings on TV. He also pontificated on the issue at, at least two Board meetings. The vote was 5-0 to spend the money.
Barbara needs to get her name out in front of the folks that will actually vote. Critic from Bellevue is right about Randy. He must pay. However, the national Republican leadership knew almost a year ago about Foley and covered the issue up. Sure the democrats would probably employ the same tactics but the Republicans are caught now and it's too close to the election to spin it another way. They will pay at the polls because this is an issue that will resonate with all voters!
pwf is right in that tax bills will come out just before the election and even if yours doesn't go up you'll know someone's that did. People will vote security and their pocketbook this year. Even will his great warchest Jim is in for a fight too!
I can't believe Randy is running stronger than Jim but even a scientific poll would have a margin of error that would mean both races are a virtual deadheat! I'm also hearing that the road tax is probably less popular than either Jim or Randy.
As “Critic” says, Foley is not alone. Don't forget back when Gerry Studds (D) also had a relationship with a male page. Except in true Democratic fashion, he didn't resign, but was merely "censured" by the Democrat-controlled House....and then his constituents from Taxachusetts re-elected him.
Good letter in the Gainesville Sun today. Blogger Mike Shore posted vote Yes, I say otherwise.
"Vote No On Amendment 3"
{Lloyd Dunkelberger's article in the Sun's Sept. 25 edition titled "Opposites unite in fight against initiative restriction" should not be taken lightly.
Politicians and big business are at it again. Amendment 3, if passed, gives politicians and lobbyists more control by taking away the people's right to speak out when the politicians don't listen. Amendment 3, if passed, would require that future amendments to Florida's Constitution pass by 60 percent of the voters, placing an unfair burden on citizens who want to place important issues on the ballot. Politicians will still be elected by a 50 percent majority, but proposals made by the people will be harder to pass.
Florida already has one of the hardest-to-amend constitutions in the nation, requiring hundreds of thousands of signatures from every corner of the state for a proposal to even be considered. Tallahassee politicians pass hundreds of laws each year. In over thirty years, citizens have passed only 22 amendments to the constitution.
So, let me ask you, who are the "special interest groups" here? I'm voting NO on Amendment 3.}
Sharon Nataline,
Alachua
i've just pulled up my payton signs in my front yard today.
The polling results on the Alachua County Voter Guide Website are also interesting:
-- Oelrich +45% over Jennings.
-- Cretul +56% over Thurman.
Check them out at:
http://freeforallcandidates.com
This was posted in the other issues section by AGENT. I thought it was just as appropriate here:
As a relative newcomer [2002] to Marion County as well as a heavily credentialed Democrat [ for the loss of a better phrase]; I am angered at the pathetic participation by the Marion County Democratic Party in the political process.
Last election I attended a bean supper fund raiser for Mike Sizemore, litered the landscape around my home precint with yard signs,maintained their upkeep, then took them down after his defeat. All pretty basic stuff, the least I felt I could do for a decent guy. Problem was, Mike had no platform and offered nothing new. Critics please note that I have worked at this most basic level,also talked to Senator Jim Williams, offered expertise, stamp licking, whatever I could do.
There is no leadership at all,no structure at the precint levels, rigor mortis has set it, with the old guard jealously guarding their withering flanks.
Primary election day,as a poll working inspector, I had to insist on remanding a man, who identified himself with a Marion County Democratic t- shirt,to a position away from the precint doors back behind the flags. He did not budge and so the judge had to call the board of election, and then he took names etc as if he was going to kick ass. Point is, he did not have a clue as to what he could do legally. Oh by the way "he just happened to be in the area", like he was some sort of celebrity advisor.
I do not like having to vote for all Repuplican candidates, although Jim Peyton and Sue Mosely are certainly worthy of a vote and support as I did for Sue Mosely on this blog.
In my former life I would have taken this all as a challenge. I know how to pull the levers, it is all basic stuff . I am sure I would leave The Republican party wondering what hit them like I did in 1964 in Winnebago County Wisconsin, and Wayne County, Ohio in the late 60's.
Problem is I am 66 years old, have a "handler, " am recovering from prostate cancer.
Their is not much fight left in this old war horse. The party I gave unyielding devotion to,a lot of my life and fortune to, has abandoned me and countless others in Marion County.
The Democratic party ought to be ashamed. It has no right to say it represents Democrats or any body else for that matter. A real miscarraige of Democratic ideals.
The worst part is that their is no hope, no hope at all.
A recent polling indicates that only one of the six amendments could be in danger of failing.
Lawmakers placed on the ballot a complicated, lengthy budget and planning measure that contains several provisions. Voters were asked whether they favor an amendment that would require the Legislature to cap the amount of money it can spend on expenses that occur year after year -- for example, teacher salaries or healthcare funding -- from revenue that comes from a one-time windfall. Most voters don't favor this amendment, according to the poll.
People really don't pay attention to what they are voting for/against on amendments. That's why so many screwy ones get through.
I can't believe those Alachua poll results!!!!
Agent . . .
If you think things are bad at the Dems, you ought to sit in on meetings at the GOP. As I recall, each party is entitled to a committeeman and committee woman for every 1,000 voters rgeistered in a precinct, and I think that means each are entitled to more than 300 (including alternates). Ten or so years ago (sorry *slim about the "old war stories") the Dems had about 100 committee people on the roster and the GOP had about 200. Have no idea about the Dems today, but I was told this morning there are 47 at the GOP. Even if there are 100 (and there aren't) it is a sad state when the party in power can not keep people interested. Reason? The place is devoid of leadership, period. And the leadership there is so far to the right that people just drop out rather than try to clean it up. Neither party really helps their candidates. In fact, both of them "eat their own" and the politics of personal destruction is the rule not the exception.
Understand your frustration. --pwf
The big Democrat rally on Sunday that James Walker mentioned had about 1000 in attendance. That according to a friend who attended. Pretty good attendance. Not sure you could get 1000 Republicans at an event like this one!
Well, if they each gave $100 to Barbara Fitos she'll beat Randy.
So, pwf, ready to prognosticate again or still living with your old predictions.
jackie wilson you too, with any revised predictions and why.
Same for you ocalaslim.
But this time let's hear a little of your reasoning behind the predictions.
stan, why don't you get into the opinion business too.
5 weeks to go and things had better start to warm up if anyone is planning on making a move!
Don't think I gave my actual predictions on all the races, so here goes:
Crist 57 Davis 43
Nelson 60 Harris 40
Oelrich 53 Jennings 47
Thurman 49 Cretul 51 (less than 500 votes)
Walker Baxley - too close to call
Weesner 48 Payton 52
Fitos Harris - too close to call
Romanski 35 Crawford 65
Road tax goes down 45-55
Haven't paid attention to the amendments, so can't predict. I'll probably vote straight no's and would urge the rest of you to consider the same.
Oops, forgot the reasoning part.
Crist and Nelson are pretty self explanatory.
Oelrich wins - an African American just can't win in that district, at least not yet. Besides, the district is pretty solidly conservative.
I think I spoke at length at one point about Cretul Thurman.
Walker and Fitos are viable not because of anything they've done, although Walker's got some potential, but because of who they're running against. Payton's not right wing enough to lose and Weesner's too left to pull it off.
Crawford beats Romanski because Romanski just isn't doing anything. Crawford's not doing much more, come to think of it, but I still see Crawford winning big.
Road tax goes down because people will see the "developer wellfare" behind it.
Jackie, interesting predictions and good reasoning.
Believe you are off on Cretul-Thurman. Talk about some one with nothing except a name, and not necessarily a good enough one, Thurman in my judgement will be lucky to be within 5,000 votes. Cretul has done a good job of serving his constitutents, and has been given some tough assignments by the House, and has done well in carrying them out. If Thurman comes closer, it will be because of a bigger backlash against the GOP than I see right now (there is one developing however).
The same should be true of the Walker-Baxley contest, but I get the strange feeling that Walker is much, much closer than anyone could have expected six months ago. I hear a growing percentage who are tired of Dennis's far right connections, and his failure to bring much home in the form of beef, much less bacon.
In addition, the "far right" and "religious right" are not organized and active this year as they have bene in the past. There is no clear leader out there to get them excited.
Talked with a GOP operative yesterday who works for a major client and he confirms the unrest is there "and we deserve it," he said, noting the GOP has become the Dems sin the way of unbridled spending, in party corruption, scandles like Foley etc . . .
Think Kathryn Harris will be closer than 20 points. Maybe 55-45 but 60-40, ouch!
But Jackie, you are on point with your reasoning.
--pwf
Time to add my two cents:
Bruderly/Stearns 47-53 Real close!
Dave Bruderly has been working very hard for this. The Republicans in Jax will decide this race.
Oelrich/Jennings 52-48
Ed Jennings is too far left for just about anybody. He has the most liberal voting record in the state house. Let's give everything away!
Crawford/Romanski 50/50 Crawford wins by around 800 votes. Joyce still does not understand the position she is running for.
Fitos/Harris 51-49 I would guess people simply are tired of Randy.
I don't see him working for this seat at all. Please correct me if I'm wrong. When he is defeated the REC is up for grabs.
Payton/Weesner/ 52/48 Jim deserves another term.
Walker/Baxley 51/49 Same as with Randy, voters want representation not moral guidance. Baxley goes home.
Cretul/Thurman 53/47 Why change here? Larry does a good job. Larry needs to stay out of social issues and he could go places.
Road Tax Goes down
I have feeling good third party candidates will gain a foothold in Marion County. The Dems are dead and the REC isn't much better. I do agree with all of the chat here about politics locally changing but maybe we could get a new thread started on that!
pwf-
I rethought the Nelson Harris race. I think you're right that Nelson doesn't get the 60%. It's more like 53%. I'm thinking though that Nelson ticked off an awful lot of the anti-war movement Dems. They vote 10% for other candidates and Harris gets 37%. I see a lot of moderate Reps voting against Harris.
I still think you're wrong on Cretul winning big. Not that I think Macky Thurman even remotely deserves the win, but the liberal base in Gainesville comes out this year. Throw in all the Thurman family friends in Dunnellon.
I also noticed in the fundraising reports that John Deakins, one of Dennis Baxley's cronies, is a major contributor to Thurman's campaign. I bet Dennis would love give Larry an early retirement to eliminate the competition in 2008.
It is such irony to me.
Everyone saying the road tax will go down in defeat.
"Delevopers welfare" one said. Did the developers hold a gun to everyones head that has moved here in the last 10 years? Force them to move here?
"Let's not become an Orlando!!!" "Vote no!!" That is short-sided thinking my friends.
The majority of the tax revenue, and a huge majority will go to enhancing EXISTING roads. Not build new ones.
I would bet you that if the road tax fails over 80% of the NO vote will consist of people here less than 10 years. Maybe we wouldn't need the tax if those voters hadn't decided to move here, you know, right a check to a developer for a home.
Come on folks, think!!!
Not a bad argument if we had a county commission we could trust the money to. We do need improvements and we DO need new roads. My worry is that Randy and Co. spend it all to build new roads to as yet untapped land owned by Rudnianyn and friends.
If Charlie Crist yard signs are any indication, he has this county wrapped up!
I'm concerned that if we don't approve the road tax, we are going to have to pay in some other way. Our roads need some major work.
anonymous 5:30pm
If you can't trust Randy to spend the road tax money correctly, GET RID OF HIM!!
The road tax should pass because our road mess can't and shouldn't be solved on the backs of homeowners. About 20% of the 1 cent road tax will be funded by non-residents. Conversely, ad valorem taxes do not apply equally to all homes and some of us will pay a heck of alot more than others. Impact fees are paid by homebuyers through the developer.
More taxes stink but the 1 percent road tax is across the board more fair than any other option.
Did I mention that Randy has to go if you don't trust him? Really, isn't 12 years enough for anybody?
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LEARN MORE ABOUT THE 1% TAX
Information meetings are scheduled by county staff as follows:
Thursday, 7 PM, at the Marion Oaks Community Center, 294 S.W. Marion Oaks Lane, Ocala
October 11, 6 PM, at the Commission Auditorium, McPherson Governmental Complex, 601 S.E. 25th Ave. Ocala
October 17, 7 PM, Queen of Peace Catholic Church, 6455 S.W. State Road 200, Ocala
October 18, 7 PM, Silver Springs Shores Community Center, 590 Silver Road, Ocala
Call 438-2300 or go to: www.marioncountyfl.org for more information.
Hope everyone will get out and learn more about the road tax!
Thanks. I will attend one of the meetings. Frankly, I don't know enough about the road tax.
I'm with Christopher Thurow on his predications. I think he has them nailed.
I picked up one of the local "slick magazines" tonight at a restaurant (Life in the Heart Of Florida). What did I see? I couldn't believe it! A feature article on Randy Harris, his family and new home. I almost lost my dinner...Harris in a slick magazine!
and that's the banner's mag
Well, Susan L. Carr of the Banner did give Harris a pretty good endorsement over Fitos a week or so ago.
Nobody respectable elected official talks to Sue Carr and expects an accurate article but Randy covets the media and only blasts the Star Banner when they report accurately on him. Randy talks to Sue and she must like the attention. She's such a poor reporter that I think she's afraid to lay it on Randy for fear she will lose a Commission contact. Brad Rogers and Bill Thompson must be turning in their sleep with Randy hitting the glossies in their magazine. Fitos would never give such a dunce reporter the time of day. So Randy has a Star Banner groupie, interesting?
Remember, getting into one of the local magazines is not luck; these magazines are revenue driven. You can bet that either Randy purchased the space or a major advertiser wanted Harris in the magazine. Randy wouldn't reveal that much about himself unless he was running for re-election, which he obviously is. Barbara Fitos had better not underestimate what he is willing to do to get his negatives down. She better be careful and come up with an unique way to get her own name recognized!
Word is on the Slick Star Banner Spread, Brad and Bill were livid that the magazine staff gave Randy the Free spread right before his election. Brad said heads were gonna roll and his people needed to be aware of who's running for office and when.
Harris is a master. He works the Star Banner all the time. The article in the magazine is another good example. It will help him appeal to the very group he needs to convert to his side at election time. Brilliant!!!
Mnay people keep saying Harris has to go----but he won't.
WOULDN'T BE TOO CONFIDENT IF I WERE YOU.
Randy will go, narrowly, and it will be an unsettling shock to him. The right wingers, that don't represent real Republicans, will finally have their stranglehold on Marion County conservative politics broken. Thank God for the coming Renaissance in Marion County politics. Just a prediction of course!
Barbara, my palms are getting sweaty just waiting for you to do something. Don't shruck your responsibility.
Sorry but she has no new ideas and no solutions at all. And you are about to see another of the fast clossess of Harris.
As for the REC, it is as worthless as the DEC. All of them a bunch of kooks.
We won't have to worry about seeing Harris in the S-B magazine anymore....they are doing away with the magazine at the end of the year.
Interesting information about the Amendments we are being asked to vote on.
Of the six Amendments, only one is a citizen initiative. The rest came from the Legislature.
Amendment No. 4, the only citizen initiative, would require the state to use 15 percent of tobacco settlement funds each year to run a tobacco education program.
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