Open Thread: Primary Hiatus
{This thread is closed. Use the new "Open Thread" posted on February 8 for your discussion topics.}
If you are growing tired of the political foreplay in all the various caucuses and primaries, use this Open Thread to start another topic for discussion.
If you want to comment (or not), the Nevada caucuses were won by Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton (each with 50%+ of the votes). In the South Carolina Republican primary, it was John McCain as the winner with 33% of the vote. Since 1980, the winner in S.C. has always received the Party nomination.
We’ll come back to the primaries when the “real one” takes place in Florida on January 29! In the meantime, it’s your nickel on the Open Thread.
posted by Blog Master @ 9:38 PM
101 Comments:
What your webmaster didn't tell you is that Clinton received 12 delegates and Barack Obama received 13. It was not a Clinton victory.
I'd like to hear some opinions about Amendment 1. I'm leaning toward yes, but my teacher friends say it will destroy education money.
Interesting that we are steered off the subject of primaries right when Fred Thompson bites it again, this time in his “must win” state of South Carolina. The end is near for Fred’s presidential fantasy. Cretul and Hanson are soon going to be looking for another horse in this race.
Just for grins, I’ll predict that Fred will get out of the race before the big February 5 primary day at the latest, and possibly before Florida, to boost the candidacy of his Senate pal John McCain.
I saw Stan’s political guru, Frank Luntz, on Fox News Saturday night referring to an inverse relationship in the Real Clear Politics poll average between Guiliani and McCain as McCain has been on the rise of late. Realizing he’s toast, Fred, who reportedly is headed back to Tennessee to talk things over with his mother, will want to keep that trend going for McCain.
The Real Clear Politics poll average for Thompson right before the South Carolina primary was 14.6 percent. Thompson’s actual result in South Carolina was 15.8 percent. Looks like the polls were a good predictor of Thompson’s performance despite attempts by his supporters to convince us the polls weren’t telling us much.
Fred quoted in the January 18 Miami Herald on the January 19 South Carolina primary: “We’re going to shock the world on Saturday.”
Famous last words.
Night Owl, If you believe Governor Crist, education will not be effected by amendment 1. The increase--doubling--of the Homestead Exemption does not apply to taxes for education. And on top of that Crist is promising $800,000more for education in his budget.
It comes down to whether or not you trust Governor Crist to deliver on his promise to keep education exempt from harm if you are worried about education in how you vote.
Forgot to mention. I saw this morning that our former Mayor of Belleview and former State Rep. Dennis Baxley has a new job. He is going to take over as the Executive Director of the Christian Coalition of Florida. Good for him.
Vote NO on Amend. 1. That will be a vote against Charlie Crist and a vote for Marco Rubio who has a plan to give us better and fairer tax relief. Watch the tax plan become Rubio's issue to bring down Crist.
Vote YES!
http://www.yeson1florida.com/
For more information on the pros and cons of Amendment 1, copy and paste the link:
www.votesmartflorida.org/mx/hm.asp?id=home
Discovered your website today. There are some good topics and comments here. Once I get someone (my grandaughter) to show me how to sign in I'll use my name and not anonymous.
Voice of Reason says . . .
Verification of Creekbaum's claim . .
The Rev. Popov that Creekbaum spoke of is on TV. He is selling Miracle Manna. If you eat it you will get free money.
He was proven to be a crackpot but it looks like he continues his destruction.
VoR
In 2004, when our economy was booming, I became an advocate of mandatory universal service for young Americans, a combination armed services and public works program modeled after FDR's WPA/Civilian Conservation Corps.
The need for both armed services manpower and the infrustructure need was obvious to me at the time, as was the fact that we had a young generation, spoiled on excesses,seemingly filled with entitlement, that the world owed them a living.
Many of these youth were unemployed,some unwilling to work, just taking up space in our economy.
Others, including a high earning member of my extended family, felt that others less fortunate should bear the burden of military service.
When I pointed out that the reservists and national guard troops were getting extensions on their duty, I was told that was what they signed up for when they
got their college paid for by the armed services.
Today, as we find ourselves mired down in Iraq, looking for a fight in Iran, with a national infrastructure crumbling before our oblivious eyes, an economy headed for the toilet, it is time for universal public service, be it military or otherwise as it has never been before, except for the great depression.
Think about it, what is their in the next 5-7 years that is going to advance the American economy ? More military spending requiring more national debt ? Consumer spending? Business investment in a poor economy ? Soverein nation investment, which is already diluting our stake in our own economy ? Tax cuts, Tax increases ? More government intervention in our monitary system ?
Americans are disatisfied with our economy, which is another way of saying "fix America first".
FDR and Congress, realizing that America would be going to war again soon, knew that the economic pump had to be primed immediately to pay for World War ll as well as rescue the country from the Depression.
In 1933 the WPA act was ratified quickly and easily in a bi-partisan effort as a result of the urgency that existed.
Today,Congress and the White house, senseing a current economic urgency, are going to be falling over each other to come up with a rescue plan that includes a rebate sop of some kind in the coming weeks.
The problem is that Congress, the Federal Reserve, The White House, and presidential candidates still don't realize how deep our economic problems are. Band aids won't stop the hemorrageing.
Real leadership is desperately needed.
Clayton Ellsworth
A new poll shows Amendment 1 is in trouble. Only 45 percent of poll respondents said they favored the amendment, 34 percent were opposed, and 21 percent were undecided. The Amendment, scheduled for a vote just eight days from now, needs 60 percent support to pass.
News reports say in these sorts of situations undecided voters tend to break more in the direction of opposing ballot measures, which spells trouble for Amendment 1.
The poll of likely voters was conducted January 14-16 and included 500 respondents statewide – 42 percent Democrats, 39 percent Republican, and 19 percent independent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Not surprisingly, the poll found Amendment 1 faring best in the northern part of the state.
The poll was conducted by Research 2000 for the Florida Times-Union and the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Research 2000 claims on their website that they had the most accurate poll results in the recent Iowa and New Hampshire Republican primaries and that, in contrast to other polls that showed a double digit lead for Obama in New Hampshire, the Research 2000 poll for the Concord Monitor showed Obama and Clinton separated by just one percent in the poll sample, well within the margin of error.
So Brian, are you for Amendment 1 or against?
Also I noticed Robyn Tomlin referenced the Politically Homeless blogsite in her column and voiced that she must be of a similar mindset. I'll bet the Star Banner is eating their heart out because their site isn't as popular as this one!
Who the heck is Rev. Popov?
Voice of Reason says . . . .
Creekbaum compared him to local politicians who get votes through blind credulity. The moral of the story was that voters, even after blatantly being duped, will still continue to allow themselves to be duped in the future.
Popov is a TV preacher who would have people come up on stage. Popov would "reveal" to them their condition and it would seem that Popov had received this knowledge from divine intervention. Popov was later found to be conducting chicanery by getting undercover staff to interview the individual prior to the meeting and then the staff would radio the individual's condition to a miniature speaker in Popov's ear.
Creekbaum said that Popov was back to doing it again. I couldn't believe my own eyes but I saw Popov on TV last night doing the same thing all over again.
I'm usually on the other end of the spectrum from Creekbaum. I don't necessarily endorse his comparison of Popov to local politicians but, for what it's worth, he was factually right about Popov.
As far as the Florida Republican primary, I have a prediction: Rudy will win. Here's why, are afraid to let Rudy get washed-out of the race. Rudy had been winning national polls against Hillary. I think that Republicans are too scared to part with Rudy. Theoretically, Republicans can vote for Rudy and try to keep him alive. Worst case scenario, they can fall back on McCain.
VoR
VoR
I did three posts on December 3, 2007 concerning Popoff and the possibility of a Randy Harris comeback. Anyone who wants to see them can look in the December 2007 archive on the Politically Homeless home page. Included in my posts are internet links to where you can see video of Popoff in action.
I neglected to mention above that the three posts are under the thread “Saturday, December 01, 2007 Open Thread: What's On Your Mind?“
All three are under my full name as are all my posts to this blog.
Focus groups also indicate passage of Amendment 1 is in trouble. The Amendment language is just too difficult for most voters to understand. Also, the “undecided” group may be larger than some of the polling is indicating, and there is greater potential to convert voters to Yes votes than may be reflected in accepting the polling assumption that undecided voters will vote No.
It all comes down to how good a job Governor Crist and his troops do in “educating” voters about Amendment 1. I would not write off his PR powers just yet. After all, he is one of the most popular Governors in Florida history.
I’m voting Yes mainly because of the portability provision. Frankly, I would have preferred to be voting on the 1.35% option Marco Rubio is supporting. Guess I’ll have to wait until 2009 or 2010 for that possibility.
Polling Caveats: All ballot issues are difficult to poll, but in particular the Amendment 1 ballot issue is difficult to poll because it co-exists on the ballot with Florida Presidential Primaries held on the same day. A Democrat in Florida can vote in the Democratic Primary and on the ballot issue. A Republican in Florida can vote in the Republican Primary and on the ballot issue. But an unaffiliated, Independent, Floridian may not vote in the Presidential Primary, but may vote on the ballot issue. Because unaffiliated voters can not vote in Florida's presidential primaries, it is unclear whether the turnout of unaffiliated voters will be higher, lower or the same as their percentage of the population. Because the Democratic Primary is unsanctioned, and Democratic candidates are not campaigning in Florida, it is unclear whether the turnout of Democrats relative to their percentage of the population, will be the same or lower. Because the Republican Primary is fiercely contested, it is unclear whether Republicans will turnout in unusually high numbers, thereby coloring the outcome of the amendment. Extreme caution should be used when interpreting polling results on Amendment 1.
I'm voting no and hoping something better will come out in the future.
I agree with the comments above by “St. Pete.” I wouldn’t want to be a pollster right now trying to figure out who is really a likely voter with all the unusual circumstances described by “St. Pete.” Concerned about this issue before I posted the poll results, I earlier looked for information on how the sample was constructed by Research 2000 for their poll, but couldn’t find anything. We’ll see what happens.
One thing is for sure. The Research 2000 poll is getting a lot of media play, which I doubt will help Amendment 1 with undecided voters. I saw a guy interviewed tonight on TV-20 who said he was undecided and was waiting to see what everyone else was doing. If a guy like that hears about negative poll results for Amendment 1, it isn’t going to help Amendment 1.
The Thompson presidential campaign death watch continues. Fox News is reporting tonight that Thompson is likely to announce Tuesday whether he will continue his presidential campaign. Fox also reports that Thompson insiders say Thompson has no plans to attend a Republican presidential debate in Florida later this week.
It will be interesting to see which candidates benefit when Thompson drops out. McCain is a Thompson pal, but Huckabee was licking his chops today, apparently because both he and Thompson have been courting southern religious conservatives.
I should have said I couldn't find anything on the poll sample construction beyond the party identification breakdown I earlier posted.
listen to Charlie Crist’s new radio spot about amendment one:
www.yeson1florida.com/radio.php
Voice of Reason says . . .
I'm thinking of voting NO on Amendment 1 because I've had it. It is ridiculous that these politicians go through entire campaigns telling us how they are experts on government. They tell us that they have qualifications and "skill sets" and "leadership."
More and more they are either asking "consultants" or the public to do their job for them. At least consultants get paid for their work. The politicians are now asking us to make the decisions and not even get paid for our work.
Forget it Crist, Kelly and whoever else, I'm voting NO. I'm not going to waste my time reading about the issue and fretting over the decision. The less time I take bubbling in "NO," the less money I lose per hour doing the government's work.
VoR
A little break from U.S. politics.
One of Liberia's most notorious rebel commanders, known as Gen. "Butt Naked", has returned to confess his role in terrorizing the nation, saying he is responsible for 20,000 deaths.
Joshua Milton Blahyi, who lives in Ghana, returned this week to face his homeland's Truth and Reconciliation Commission. His name is derived from his platoon's practice of charging naked into battle, a technique meant to terrify the enemy.
Hope they don't fight in cold weather!
As I earlier posted, respondents in the Research 2000 poll on Amendment 1 were reportedly 42 percent Democrats, 39 percent Republicans, and 19 percent independent. I don’t know for sure how “independent” is defined in this context but I would assume that it included the minor parties and those with no party affiliation. Based on data on the Division of Elections website, this compares to book close registration for the January 29 presidential preference primary with the Amendment 1 question on the ballot of 41 percent Democrats, 38 percent Republicans, and 22 percent other. This totals to more than 100 because of rounding.
Consider that in the 2000 presidential preference primary in Florida, which was contested for both major parties, 21.3 percent of Republicans voted and 15.1 percent of Democrats. In the contested 2004 presidential preference primary, 19.3 percent of Democrats voted. In elections in general, registered Democrats are less likely to vote than are Republicans and voters not registered in either major party are less likely to vote than are Democrats. Combined with the situation specific factors listed by “St. Pete,” I wonder how Research 2000 arrived at a mix of sample respondents heavier with Democrats than Republicans. A factor not mentioned by “St. Pete” that cuts in the other direction, however, is the presence of a black Democrat on the ballot with a serious chance of winning a presidential nomination. You also have to wonder if the poll sample is too heavy with independents.
Without more information on the polling methodology used by Research 2000, it’s difficult to say more, but there does seem to be a basis to ask some questions.
Tuesday 8:30 AM
Later today, I will explain how the desperate 3/4 % fed funds rate cut is wrong and what negative effect this continuation of fed reflationary policy will have on our economy.
Clayton Ellsworth
I'm an Independent and I'm not going to waste my time voting in the primary. The tax amend. is of no significance to me and I can't vote for a candidate so I'll stay away.
See where Mike Huckabee’s “aging” mouthpiece, Chuck Norris, is bad mouthing John McCain’s age as a negative in becoming President. Check out the date born and age when last elected of the following group of world leaders:
Churchill 1874 77
De Gaulle 1890 69
Disraeli 1804 70
Mandela 1918 76
Meir, G. 1898 71
Reagan 1911 70
And what do all these people have in common? We all know their names and they are still respected by many of us.
As for amendment 1:
At first, I was opposed, because generally, whatever Crist is for is a pretty good bet it is bad for most of us "folk" out here.
But Voice, I have carefully studied (as carefully as I am going to) it and:
--the extra $25K homestead helps us "folk" ($182) minimum annually,
--the portability helps anyone who has owned a home for a while and wants to move to another (larger or smaller) home and can carry the Save Our Homes savings (I voted against that because I predicted all the unfairness and problems that have come true but I will gladly keep it for the savings it provides),
--and it gives a new $25K exemption for all business tangible personal property, and finally,
--limites all non residential assessments to a 10% increase in the future (if values ever increase again.
I would gladly write a new amendment that says
"All real estate taxes are henceforth prohibited and in their place is substituted a 2% (or whatever is revenue neutral) sales, use and services tax on ALL goods and services sold and or transferred except food, medicine and medical procedures."
With leave to revise and extend to capture something I might have missed, it could be done in less than 100-150 words. My suggestion above is about 35 words and covers pretty much the water front.
And BTW (that is by the way for someone who asked the other day) my amendment would eliminate real estate taxes for schools and would include them in the new sales tax. And yes, in times when there is a recession, schools would take a hit just like my family took a hit during recessions, just like they did before we had these pressure groups that said tax him, tax him, but done tax me behind the tree. --pwf
Reports still say Fred Thompson has no announced campaign schedule for Florida, including no plans to attend the Republican debate in Florida scheduled for Thursday. I would expect him to announce his departure from the race before the debate to avoid a bunch of discussion about why he isn’t there, which would inevitably involve a lot of rehashing of his campaign failures like the Washington Post story today titled, “Will Thompson Roll the Closing Credits?”
The Post story says that last October, after Thompson had teased the nation for several months and then officially entered the race, several Thompson rivals delivered energetic stemwinders to 4,000 conservative activists at Florida’s state GOP convention and then Fred got up and mumbled for five minutes. They report that dozens of people asked: Is that it?
The Post also quotes one disaffected Thompson insider as saying, "His rivals would do more in a day than Fred would do in a month."
Larry Cretul really picked a dud for president.
Interesting. Where do Cretul and the millions and millions of others who backed Thompson now go?
My guess McCain or Huckabee.
At least old Fred can spend more time with that young wife and family.
Hucklebee is not the answer for people who feel disenfranchied because of Fred Thompson's droping out.
Hucklebee made a huge blunder when he said the constitution should be amended to reflect the true meaning of God's word.
Many evangelecals as well as other conservatives did not vote for him because of this remark according to exit polls taken in the northern part of SC where he expected the vote to put him over the top.
Yesterday his body language at the Martin Luther King service in Atlanta told the whole story. He's toast.
If Ed Rollins hasn't quit the campaign already, he will soon.
As far as I'm concerned I am glad Hucklebee blurted out his extreme fundamentalist beliefs now rather than in office.
When you looked behind Huclebee's facade, ther wasn't much there.
Clayton Ellsworth
Voice of Reason says . . .
Yes, pwf, I have simmered down and have gone back to voting YES on Amendment 1. I am sick of the "expert" paid politicians asking us to make their decisions. But, in the end, I want what Amendment 1 offers.
Also, I see that the opponents are public employees and their unions.
So, I'm going YES.
I like Anonymous 9:34am's entry. It reminded me fondly of "Fish" (Abe Vigoda) on Barney Miller.
VoR
I'm also with PWF on the tax vote. I'm not going to give up even a dollar of my property tax savings to the government. The schools are already getting too much special protection on their budgets.
As I predicted here on Sunday, Fred Thompson has made a quick exit from the presidential race following his disappointing results in South Carolina. Fox News is reporting that Thompson has issued a statement officially withdrawing from the race.
It turns out that Cretul’s presidential pick didn’t even make it to the Florida primary where Cretul is (was) co-chairing Veterans for Thompson. I recall that when I first voiced deep skepticism about the Thompson candidacy on the blog months ago that Cretul’s consigliere, Stan, posted some insult about how he doubted Fred Thompson was paying any attention to me. I’m sure that’s true, but if Fred had operated based on my accurate analysis he could have spent a lot more quality time with the wife over the past several months.
Apparently, Huckabee is now de-emphasiing Florida in favor of Georgia because Florida is a winner-take-all state that he doesn’t think he can take. It looks like a race in Florida between Guiliani, McCain, and Romney. I saw Dennis Baxley in Zaxby’s a week or so ago; he said he was still supporting Romney.
It will be interesting to see what the Florida polls look like without Thompson.
so creekybaummmy, you are still with it with ur insults about one of the real gop winners, cretul, who surely doesnt give one single damn about ur opinion -- nobody else does either. Thompson may be gone but at least he went and did more than you have never done and than is run, ever so poorly. now take your meds and crawl back in bed. nity nite, creeeeeeekybaummmmy.
We should congratulate four of our County Commissioners for making an excellent decision today to integrate EMSA with the County Fire Services. A decision that will save taxpayers a bunch of money and provide the finest emergency service we could ever want. General Howard's recommendation was a good one. Thanks General Howard and the County Commission.
Voice, glad to have you on board. Judging from the mailings opposing the amendment, we will need all the votes we can get. Newspapers are against it, but they generally are against anything that gives taxpayers a break. Round up family and friends. Then the fun begins watching the govt types complain about having to balance budgets. -- pwf
The merger of ambulance into fire will be far more difficult than the general predicts, and will still be to be acomplished long after his contract is up and he is gone. Look for labor problems, more union activity, and no cost savings. --pwf
You sound a little angry about the merger. Why not wait and see how things come out? It might be better than you think.
Voice of Reason says . . . .
Maybe Baxley kept getting elected because people thought that they were voting for Zaxby?
VoR
Clayton Ellsworth--It's reported that many people are refinancing their mortgages with the lower interest rates. Is that an overall good or bad thing for the economy?
Where will the Fred Thompson supporters switch their allegiance? That’s a question that has not yet been researched—but likely will be—so anything is pure speculation. Political journalists I know are kind of leaning toward Thompson not endorsing anyone right now. He will hold off for a VP deal, which many feel won’t come about. With no Thompson endorsement of another candidate, here is a best guess as to how the Thompson supporters will divide up—in order of high to low numbers switching:
McCain
Huckabee
Romney
Paul
Giuliani
RE: pwf 10:17pm
You are exactly on target. Howard won't be around to see it work...or not. Commissioners don't always get all the information they need, only what staff will give them. The fire chief got his way and now we'll have to wait to see the phantom savings disappear. But then again the chief may be gone by then too.
Also, the commission has completed the county administrator's review and also that of the county attorney. We'll have to wait for the comments to be compiled by our fine Clerk of the Courts. Look for the sqeeming to start soon.
St. Pete:
Reverse Huckabee and Romney and I'm with you.
Voice of Reason says . . .
Got my early ballot in today. One vote for YES on Amendment 1.
In thr primary, I didn't vote for Huckabee, Romney or Paul.
VoR
You're a funny guy!
Gonna make us guess which of the other two. My guess--Rudy.
Voice of Reason . . . .
I'm gonna keep the rest a secret.
I guess I should say also that I didn't vote for Clinton, Edwards or Osama.
VoR
Biggest contributions "FOR" Amendment 1:
forum.tallahassee.com/viewtopic.php?t=47465
Biggest contributions "AGAINST" Amendment 1:
forum.tallahassee.com/viewtopic.php?t=47846
For the second time The Federal Reserve has stepped in to curb a plunge in the stock market, sending a signa to investers big and small that risk is OK. We,The Federal Reserve, will be there to see that you you don't lose your hind end.
As I have pointed out before, there is a big danger in tinkering with markets to avoid a recession. I have stated "recession now or depression later" .
Markets work best when left alone to rise or fall in the natural course of economic events.
We only have to look at the housing market which went up , albeit it artificially, only to go down, leaving the market to determine it's own bottom.
Yes, it is painfull for everybody to see the housing market correct itself.
The severe depth to which the housing market , which was artificially stimulated by greedy speculation has fallen, is also illustrative of what happens to all bubbles that grow by speculative greed that ignores risk, which is also the case in the stock market.
From a technical point of view, technitions are seeing signs of capitulation, a bottom of the bear market, which I can assure you is a mirage because of the Fed intervention
Meantime, jobless claims dropped a whopping even number of 1000 surpriseing analysts that forecast a 19,000 increase in jobless claims. I don't believe the 1000 number for one minute
Anonymous, the refinancing of mortages will have little effect, one way or the other.
Clayton Ellsworth
Voice of Reason says . . .
Here's why I didn't vote for Huckabee, Romney or Paul:
Huckabee seems like a phoney. He keeps changing his plan and policies from day to day. I would not have a problem with him as VP. The problem with him as VP nominee is that I think that the Pres. candidate should get a good quality, strong conservative woman. Any suggestions? I can't think of any but there has to be some.
As to Romney, I liked his idea to force everyone to get health insurance. He seems to be fine with family values. I've got a problem with the Mormon issue. Mormonism is very dangerous. It looks very similar to Christianity on the outside but it is not the Christian Church. I was shocked to see that even Christian "leaders" support Romney because public equation of Mormonism with orthodox Christianity is more dangerous than even Hilary as president.
As to Paul, I really wish there was a different messenger for his message. I agree with Paul on many points but he cannot overcome the "crackpot" image. I remember another guy just like him from Texas named Ross Perot. Ross tried but, in the end, only sank Bush I's reelction campaign and elevated the Clinton(s) disastrous run(s).
There was a great old talk show called the "Morton Downey Jr. Show." Paul was on it and here's the link: www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHB2I83_N_k
If Paul were to run as an independent, he would be the Republican's Ralph Nader (who ruined it for Gore in 2004).
VoR
This is an interesting blog. It seems that there is a wide range of people leaving comments. I have been reading it since December and it never fails to leave me amused.
Congress and the White House cut a deal today to begin sending tax rebates of $600 to $1,200 to most tax filers by spring. Rebates will be even higher for families with children.
Individual taxpayers would get up to $600 in rebates, working couples $1,200 and those with children an additional $300 per child under the agreement. In a key concession to Democrats, 35 million families who make at least $3,000 but don't pay taxes would get $300 rebates.
The rebates would phase out gradually for individuals whose adjusted gross income exceeds $75,000 and for couples with incomes above $150,000. Contributions to IRA and 401(k) retirement accounts and health savings accounts would not count toward the income limit.
The bill will go straight to the House floor next week and on to the Senate, where some Democrats hope to add elements such as extending unemployment benefits for workers whose benefits have run out.
If the Senate gives quick approval, the first rebate payments could begin going out in May and most people could have them by July.
For businesses, the stimulus measure would allow immediate tax write-offs for 50 percent of the purchase price of plants and other capital equipment and permit small businesses to write off additional purchases of equipment.
To address the mortgage crisis, the package raises the limit on Federal Housing Administration loans from $362,790 to as high as $729,750 in expensive areas, allowing more subprime mortgage holders to refinance into federally insured loans. To widen the availability of mortgages across the country, it also provides a one-year boost to the cap on loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy, from $417,000 up to $729,750 in high-cost markets.
Don't spend your money yet! Watch the Democrats screw up the rebates in some way by trying to make Bush look bad. Partisan politics is alive and well with the Democrats in control of Washington.
Since I ask the question on Saturday, I got quite a bit of information about Amendment 1 from the blog comments. I’m going to go ahead and vote for it. My concern about education money is not as serious as it was at first. I got a misleading mailing the other day trying to scare me into not voting on the basis of the tax cuts ruining education. I didn’t like that way of being against it, so I’ll vote yes.
Voice of Reason says . . . .
Mr. Feisty, stick around later in the year when the comments are directed toward the local politicians. That is when it really gets entertaining and educational.
VoR
To explain why The Labor Department's enemployment statistics are wrong, I submit the following :
The number of independent contractors in the workforce is hard to determine because this classification is lumped into the"contingency workforce" with part time and temperary workers [temps].
However, recent estimates are approximately 10%.
When independent contractors become unemployed, they can not get unemployment benefits.
Consider that 83% of realtors are independant contractors. Other categorys of indepedent contractors relating to real estate sales are appraisers and mortage brokers which I haven't found statistics on.
Suffice it to say that the total number of independent contractors involved in the sale of housing is quite large and those not working fulltime is a substantial number nationwide that you don't see reflected in unemployment numbers.
Illegal immigrants involved in the constuction and related industrys is also difficult to determine with estimates ranging from 7.4 % to 14%.
The Pew Hispanic Center reports that 30% of all new hires that the building boom generated went to Hispanics although the Center is not certain how many were illegal workers.
My focus is on the construction trades because we can easily identify with this in Marion County where I'm sure the above numbers would be greater.
Of course there are many other areas of the labor force that use independent or contract employees that are effected by the downturn in the economy.
Sales comes to mind, as one independent contractor who weathered several recessions,while many others did not.
Because of the variables mentioned above, nobody can determine the exact number of people in these two categorys that are unemployed with no unemployment benefits.
I would argue that there needs to be new models that determine actual unemployement as well as labor department statistical unemployment otherwise economic policys will continue to be based on false assumptions.
Clayton Ellsworth
When you examine the list of who is providing financial support for and against Amendment 1, it generally has business and individuals for it---unions and government employees against it.
That convinced me to vote in favor of the Amendment rather than taking a chance that something better will come out in the future.
Don Browning may be onto something about being more positive about Florida. Maybe the Florida media is too focused on the national scene. A recent poll by the St. Petersburg times indicated that Floridians are more pessimistic about the direction of the nation than their home state. Sixty-six percent of voters said the U.S. is on the wrong track. But only 50 percent said Florida is on the wrong track.
And Charley Crist's popularity is down 18 points.
Former state Rep. Dennis Baxley, the incoming state executive director of the Christian Coalition, mentioned his position in recorded phone calls endorsing Mitt Romney for president, angering religious conservatives who back other candidates and violated the coalition’s non-partisan policy.
The board of the coalition has asked Baxley to stop the calls and he has agreed to.
On a Christian radio talk show Friday afternoon, asked about the subject by a caller, Baxley apologized and said he has halted the calls.
The Christian Coalition is a non-profit charity and says it is non-partisan and doesn’t endorse candidates, which would be a violation of IRS regulations for such groups. The Florida Coalition also has a policy that its officers don’t make even personal endorsements of candidates.
Sure, Baxley didn't realize he was making a mistake!! Believe that and I have a bridge I'll sell you.
Ron Paul's economic stimulus plan:
http://RonPaul2008.com
Pundits and government leaders are saying that America's economic fundamentals are strong, the president urges bipartisan support for a tax cut package,there is assurance from the Federal Reserve that they will provide cheaper credit,high unemployment is in Europe not the United States.
January 2008 ?? no October 1929 !
Clayton Ellsworth
Deep recession-yes...Depression-no.
Get ready to knock off another 20% from the stock market by year end.
The South Carolina primary has brought out the TRUE Democratic Party. The Party of hypocrites and racists. Keep it going Dems and you'll be left out in the cold again. Go McCain!
The Florida Democratic Party is blasting Crist's decision to endorse John McCain as bad for Florida because McCain is the only major Republican candidate who opposes a national catastrophic insurance fund (which Crist supports). "This is a slap in the face to every Floridian," said Democratic Party spokesman Mark Bubriski. "So much for being 'the people's governor.!"
Looks like the Governor's honeymoon with the Democrats is over. Many in his Party will say "it's about time!"
8:50
Both of the parties have racists. The difference is that republicans are more open about it and the democrats are secret racists. We've got many of those secret ones right in our own county.
THE CLASSIC MATCHUP--A POLITICAL SUPER BOWL
CLINTON/OBAMA
VS.
MCCAIN/RICE
Clinton will get the nomination. Obama will start to fade once the elections move from the heavy black vote states. Will she ask him to be her VP is the million dollar question.
It may be because of the aging process and diminishing mental capacity that I find my self agreeing with conservatives like Pat Buchanan and Newt [never to be counted out] Gingerich author of "Real Change",his new manifesto to run on in 2112 or 2116.
Enter the tribune's conservative columnist, Cal Thomas who has made a living on bashing liberals.
In today's column in The Star Banner,Thomas says this about current plans to stimulate our economy.
"The depression in large part was caused by government intervention and manipulation of the free market system." Markets do best when government mostly leaves them alone".
Mr. Thomas, obviously a well read and thoughtful fellow, must have been peeking at posts on this blog site.
I was reminded the other day by a staunch Republican conservative that "Democrats always think the economy is bad " and that I should read "The Economist " which I do occassionaly, finding it's content pretty banal.
Cliches like "those who ignore history are doomed to repeating it" or "history repeats itself " come easily to mind.
Academics like Ben Bernake, government officials like Treasury Secretary Paulson, as well as our modern day Herbert Hoover, must have been absent or sleeping in their history classes.
Yes, Ben Bernacke is a student of and has written much about the great depression. Yet he seems to ignore the very history he has written about.
Panic set in last week when the Federal Reserve cut the discount rate a week before their scheduled meeting, a clear signal to foreign markets that the Fed and the administration had been reading their economic tea leafs incorrectly.
The way we measure our economy is old school, no longer relavant in an economy that has changed so dramatically in the last five years because of the global market place,9 trillion dollars of national debt and 1/3 first mortage foreign countrys have on our GNP, among other things.
Time for a change ? You bet.
Clayton Ellsworth
Mr. Ellsworth—I’m not an economist but I don’t see how these tax rebates are going to help our economy that much. I listened to a news show this AM and many of the people were going to buy toys for their kids and grandkids. Unbelievable! Since 95% of the toys come in from overseas. How does that help the U.S.? Even those who are going to buy things other than toys have to realize that over 1/3 of the products we buy are manufactured overseas. How does that help the U.S.? I’m puzzled.
RE:
11:25 PM, January 26, 2008, Anonymous said...
THE CLASSIC MATCHUP--A POLITICAL SUPER BOWL
CLINTON/OBAMA
VS.
MCCAIN/RICE
I agree with your Democratic selection, it is possible, but Rice will not do anything to appeal to the conservative wing of the Republicans so look for Huckabee on the Republican ticket. In a pleasant sort of way he would be McCain's "tricky Dick."
????? confused
In an earlier post I pointed out that I thought very little of the rebates would bolster the economy, rather people would pay down debt,pay high energy bills,etc. On line polls taken by various newspapers, indicate that I am right.
In fact, only 20-40% of the 2001 rebates were spent on descretionary spending in the first 3 months after folks received their checks. Times were a lot different then, saving rates were higher and their was less personal debt.
You are correct in stating that money spent on Chinese goods and not spent at home is harmful to our economy. Trouble is, consumers are going to continue to clamor for the cheaper goods made in China.
In the past China has used this largess to buy American debt in the form of US treasurys. These puchases will continue to decline as we continue to lower interest rates paid on these debt instruments.
Yes, the Chinese and other foreign countrys are going to spend their money here in the form of buying companies that have "fire sale" on their doors. Banks and insurance companies, as soon as their losses become apparent, will top the list.
America will be the losers.
By the way, I am not an economist either. I earned my MBA from the school of hard knocks, spending my life in the market place one way or the other.
Thank you for asking.
Clayton Ellsworth
Bet old V of R would rather see J.C. Watts teamed up with John McCain to counter Obama.
Hey Stan. You pal Frank Luntz is now doing polls and writing for Playboy magazine about the sex habits of people from different political parties. Also, cavorting with those Playboy Bunnys! What’s up with that?
You Republicans want to see a flip flopper:
www.therealmccain.com
How could anyone in their right mind vote for this old fart?
Voice of Reason says . . . .
Yes Anon 12:54, Rice is a bad idea and J C Watts is a much better candidate for any office over Rice.
That being said, you might be looking for a comment on affirmative action as it applies to this race. It is bad news that someone like Anon 11:25 would so easily suggest a Clinton/Osama, McCain/Rice race. Even if we look to the brainwashed idea that affirmative action/quotas are good, this matchup is a form of "super-affirmative action." If this country has about 15% black citizens, how do we get to 50% black representation in the presidential race?
Looking at if from a non-affirmative action view, neither Osama nor Rice should be in any form of the US government. Osama got into Harvard through a mixture of legacy (his father was some sort of affirmative action admittee into Harvard) and affirmative action/quotas. After a little work in the real world, he was quickly given a job as a law professor. Colleges are begging anyone except white males to apply for professor jobs. Then, Osama gets into a Chicago area legislature seat that was carved-out for a minority. Next, he got into the Senate race against a shoe-in Republican who's wife raised outrageous claims of swinger clubs and marital rape. Obama won that race in the fallout.
Now, Osama is a complete lightweight media creation. I hear that the Kennedy's are comparing him to JFK. They should, that makes sense because JFK was a similar media creation. If they were really good analysts though, they would more accurately compare him to the JohnJohn? Kennedy. This is JFK's kid who wrecked an airplane into Baah-ston Haah-Baah.
That Kennedy couldn't pass the bar a bunch of times, couldn't hold a job, invented a very weak fashion/politics magazine and tried to stay around famous people. The media loved him. The media is trying to make Osama a similar sensation but Osama isn't as good looking.
With Rice, she is a person of mediocre ability who was catapulted into positions because of affirmative action. She was an academic who moved into college campus administration. From there, Bush need some "minority" and women cabinet people to make himself not look racist and get 11% of the black vote instead of 10%. So, he picked Rice. She is completely inept in national security and impotent in foreign policy. Completely the wrong person for both of the jobs that she has had in the Bush administration.
VoR
10:04 pm; All the candidates are flip floppers. They couldn't have gotten this far along if they weren't. Just hold your nose and vote!
I agree with Ann Coulter, John McCain is Bob Dole minus the charm, conservatism and youth. Like McCain, pollsters assured us that Dole was the most "electable" Republican. Unlike McCain, Dole didn't lie all the time while claiming to engage in Straight Talk.
Of course, I might lie constantly too, if I were seeking the Republican presidential nomination after enthusiastically promoting amnesty for illegal aliens, Social Security credit for illegal aliens, criminal trials for terrorists, stem-cell research on human embryos, crackpot global warming legislation and free speech-crushing campaign-finance laws.
I might lie too, if I had opposed the Bush tax cuts, a marriage amendment to the Constitution, waterboarding terrorists and drilling in Alaska.
And I might lie if I had called the ads of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth "dishonest and dishonorable."
The reason I don't blog on the Star Banner blog site is because of all the meaningless trash talk especially between bloggers.
Like Stan, I sometimes agree with VOR and sometimes I don't.
VOR's last blog, where he repeatedly refers to Senator Obama as "Osama" as well as a previous post awhile back where he referred to Senator Obama as "Hussein" Obama are hateful as well as rascist.
AS a person who was in Mississipi in 1964, and has vehemently opposed rascism both when I was in politics and in private life,hope America has grown up.
The venomous hate campaign being waged on line, claiming that Senator Obama is a Muslim,is a blatant falsehood that has been debunked by CNN and others.
For those who spread this slime it is a two for one, a cheap shot against blacks as well as Muslims who all aren't Jihadsts.
VOR's racist remarks are well known to those of us who regularly visit this web site. We don't need to be reminded again.
Clayton Ellsworth
Clayton, what Voice uses as his name for Obama is not anymore racist than the Clinton's using the issue (not his name) to demean and diminish his campaign. By the way, I first heard the constant use of Obama's middle name (Hussein) from Democrats who don't like him. Maybe some of these high and mighty Democrats need to have their mouths washed out. Freedom of speech is not always racist!
Voice of Reason says . . . .
Clayton, I have also criticized JohnJon. JohnJon had a form of affirmative action from his family. O-Bomb-a's big daddy is the U.S. Government. I criticized both of them.
These two aside, the overwhelming majority of Americans have an equally adequate chance of reasonable success.
It is not fair to simply label criticism of preferences, "diversity," programs, set-asides, quotas and "retention" efforts as racist.
In continuation of my proportionality analysis, what about TV commercials? If blacks are 15% of the population, how come it seems that 50% of the people in commercials are black. Further, almost all "Ad Council" public service ads have an Af.Am. as the main character. Further, if there are white people in the commercials, there is a black voice over. You never see an Asia guy or gal.
VoR
VOR
Obviously you missed the point. I was not critizing your remarks on affirmative action.
The use of "OSAMA" not Obama 8 times is racist.The effort to smear Obama by linking him to a muslim middle name and the not so cute "OSAMA" has been established to have to be originated and continues to be spread by rascist seperationalists.
If you feel you don't belong in that category then you should denounce this scurulous effort, stick to your dislike of affirmative action which is a point of view I respect but don't nessecarily agree with. It is a point of view that can be expressed without bringing race into the argument as you clearly have.
I agree that anglo saxons have been victims of affirmative action in many cases. This has to be corrected.
Clayton Ellsworth
Tomorrow: Vote MITT ROMNEY for President!
correction on spelling :
should be separatists
Clayton Ellsworth
Voice of Reason says . . . .
After getting browbeat almost daily by minorities about how bad white people are, using a cute name like Osama for O-bomb-us, is more than reasonable payback. If you could sit through some Oprah/Maya Angelou fundraiser for O-bomb-us and be told how spectacular Obama is without puking in your soup twice, you're more of a man than me. As for me, however, I am sick of getting beat up as a racist for silly little nicknames when people like the Oprah crowd can say whatever they want with impunity.
If you can sit through the rote routines of BET comedians, they openly ridicule other races constantly. On commercials, it is OK to show some black athlete completely humiliate a doughy "soft" white guy at some sport. During "Black History Months," you will get 28-29 days of straight shameless black propaganda and openly anti-European rhetoric.
So, why not a little ridicule and fun with O-bomb-us? After all, he does have that Muslim name and background. The media hasn't really dug into his background. Why not be suspicious about him like we should be with all Muslims? Romney gets it with Mormonism. For all of Obama's very fortunate political timing, maybe a Muslim running for president on the heels of 911 will reverse his fortune.
Let me say Clayton, that I do respect your opinion because you saw the worst of racial violence in Mississippi in the 60's. It was truly terrible that people's opinions of race had to result in violence. Slavery was a terrible idea from every angle. (PS - I blame slavery on the smokers.)
VoR
If you like political history, read the new book “Liberal Fascism” by Jonah Goldberg to increase your political understanding; quite interesting and informative. Sections of the book helps explain why the Star-Banner’s controlling company, The New York Times, thinks and writes about issues the way it does. Goldberg also touches on the ramifications of the political philosophies of some of the so-called compassionate conservatives (e.g., Mike Huckabee). It’s heavy on history but good reading.
Clayton & Voice of Reason might be interested in the parts of the book dealing with the role of racism in the history of liberal fascism.
To 6:38 P.M. (1/27)...I would have helped Frank Luntz with some of his focus groups for just a fee of getting to have dinner with him and the Bunnies!
Got a call from the McCain campaign people knocking the social conservative record on Mitt Romney. I'm voting for Romney tomorrow--was leaning toward McCain but his call was a falsehood.
Gun nutt says…
I can’t believe the nerve of Obama running for President. He hasn’t even served a full term in the Senate and already he wants to be President. McCain has been in the Senate for decades. This makes me think of a guy right out of college trying to be the CEO of a fortune 500 company. No one would think such a thing made sense and it never would happen unless the guy’s father was the majority shareholder or the guy himself was black.
Caroline Kennedy likes Obama because her children got excited over him. OK, so children like Obama. Maybe he should have a children’s educational show on PBS. Today’s children are brainwashed by movies, etc to believe all minorities represent everything pure, wholesome, and good. This has been happening slowly but steadily ever since they passed that Federal law that every movie has to have Morgan Freeman.
The other thing I keep hearing about Obama is, “I like him because he inspires me”. Fine maybe he should be a motivational speaker. He could speak to inner city youth down at the YMCA or the Urban League. At least then he wouldn’t have the power to take money from one person in the form of taxes and give it to another in the form of welfare.
No, I hope Obama doesn’t win and that’s not because of his race. In fact, I think the people who support Obama do it mainly because of his race. The blacks who support him do it because he is black and they want “one of their own” as president. The whites who support him seem to do it for one of two reasons. One group does it out of some need to prove that they are not racists. The other group does it because he reminds them of the singer from Hootie and the blowfish.
Voice of Reason says . . .
Didn't that Hootie and the Blowfish singer just win that stupid Buick golf tournament last weekend?
A trend for voters must be to vote against nepotism. Without the aid of racial preferences, plenty of sorry white people are unjustly in the political world. Every Kennedy has, or has had some type of political seat. Why do the Kennedys have this privilege? Especially after it has been shown that JFK botched so many things.
The Bushes are a great example. What about the Clintons? How long will we wait for Chelsea to start running for the New York senate seat?
Locally, Baxley Jr. almost won a seat that his father was leaving. Clark ran for mayor,etc.
VoR
The President's speech-
Republicans say it was great!
Democrats say it sucked!
Yawn!!!!
Voice of Reason says . . .
Another thing about Barak Hussein, he is running around the country campaigning on the country's nickel. While he is drawing a Senate paycheck, how much time has he spent doing Senate business?
Granted, Hitlery and McCain are doing the same thing. But, Hitlery "paid her dues" for 8 years as an unpaid White House employee and a Senator for 6 years. She was also a nag in the Arkansas governor's office for all those bitter years. Mc-Cane (pun on his age) has been in the Senate for 30 years and was in the military. At least these latter two have some claim of getting their ticket punched.
But Hussein has the sense of entitlement that affirmative action brings. Things have always come easy to him so why shouldn't the Democratic nomination also?
VoR
I'm voting for the old guy.
Yes on Amendment one.
From the WHAT WERE THEY THINKING ??? Department
United American Reality Corporation, developer of the 606,100 square foot struggling Saddle Brook "Market Square " shopping center,tackled by far their largest developement at the time in coming to Ocala.
Previous developments were 108,000 Sq Ft, 100,000 Sq Ft, 350,000 Sq Ft [lacking tenants]. One of the small developements is an office building they occupy, the others are garden variety Florida strip centers.
It should be noted that the above is beginning a 680,000 sq ft "Market Square " developement in Valdosta that required annexationon of the land needed on James Road.
In financing projects like these, financing is done in layers as more tenants are secured using these contracts as security. The financing drys up when there is failure to secure tenants and their contracts.
Commercial paper needed to float developing dryed up in August and hasn't gotten much better.
I have commented before that there are already signs of over building on 200 caused by relying on future anticipated demographics which will be met eventually but not for quite awile.
If you ignore the fact that Lowes and Paddock mall, are already near I75, current demographics would be compelling in better times. You can't saturate the market place and not expect failure down the road.
What were they thinking ??
Clayton Ellsworth
You’ve got to love John McCain’s 95year old mother. She flew to Paris, France last year with the intent of driving around France. When she got there she tried to rent a car and no one would rent her one because of her age. Her solution, she just bought a car instead!
From the WHAT WERE THEY THINKING ??
Department
Last November with all kinds of fan fare, Juliette Falls had a grand opening for their "Florida's Most Exclusive " multi million, spare no cost developement.
Featuring homes from $875 to $3 million dollars, Juliette Falls has built 12 model homes with 4 of them up for sale, presumely to raise money.
At this writing 6 liens have been placed on properties by contractors for unpaid work and or materials totaling thousands of dollars.
The "champianship " golf course is virtually unused.
Marion County got ther feet wet granting road widening, accepting Juliette Falls and Viking LLC at face value.
I would love to see the feasibility study for this blunder.
What were they thinking ??
Clayton Ellsworth
Springs Protection Ordinance: If you want another opinion to what you have been hearing from the Star-Banner, suggest you subscribe to the new “Marion Sun Times” and ask the editor to send you that edition of his e-mail editorials.
Editor@marionsuntimes.com
Among the many issues with the ordinance, one seems to be the county possibly misfiring on a hiring decision. You read and decide.
Mr. Ellsworth, remember the economic pearl of wisdom:
"One lesson...government's are always recession proof even if the citizen/taxpayer is not."
Voice of Reason says . . .
Larry Cretul is running for State House. A big part of his platform is his undying support of Fred Thomson for President. Joking of course.
I went to his website: larrycretul.com and it was pretty flat. It had no information. From the colors and graphics it looks like he is trying to position himself for a future US House run.
He has a link to his "blog." In actuality, this blog appears to be his proper website. The blog link ("let's talk") on that website has one entry and that entry is from Larry Cretul. I guess no one wants to talk with him. I thought that Brian Creekbaum could go on the blog and ask him his experience in supporting Fred Thompson.
VoR
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