New Hampshire Primary Results: Importance?
Another State primary behind us and Florida is getting closer! The New Hampshire results are in and the winners are:
REPUBLICAN: John McCain 37%; Mitt Romney 32%; Mike Huckabee 11%.
DEMOCRAT: Hillary Clinton 39%; Barack Obama 37%; ; John Edwards 17%.
Here’s a link to a recent interesting article comparing Obama and McCain:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/opinion/08brooks.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
Some questions to get you commments going:
Are you surprised by the New Hampshire results? What is the impact of these two wins on the race for the Democrat and Republican nominations? Which of the two winners might best represent the "politically homeless"? Let’s hear from you.
posted by Blog Master @ 10:54 PM
36 Comments:
Voice of Reason says . . . .
Looks like Romney is winning the spitting contest between him and Huckabee. McCain is the most qualified of the leading candidates and the country is in good hands with him.
It might be the beginning of the end for Osama. The people raising the most "excitement" for him don't seem to be able to vote. The ones who do vote for him are an anti-Hillary/establishment/status quo vote.
Sometime, compare Osama to Judge Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court. He was on CSPAN that other day. Thomas is a very practical , funny and straight shooter with good insight. He's a guy who has pulled himself up by the bootstraps. Osama is a guy drifiting through life looking for a place to fit in. He is very similar to that Kennedy kid who died flying the plane. A media creation who is much more hype than substance.
VoR
As a few cautioned us all, don't count out the Clinton Machine too soon. Tonight was a good example.
I also wouldn't throw Obama to the sea yet either. But he will now get the dirt-throwing that the Clinton's are so capable of doing. Her potty mouth was probably in full action tonight.
As one of those few who cautioned, let me suggest that Clinton and Obama are both clearly in it and we will know a lot more in a month but a Clinton-Obama ticket for the Democrats would not be a surprising result to me. The Clintons wouldn’t want to be upstaged by the VP but I think that concern would be trumped by the political pragmatism they have long demonstrated and that the potential benefit of hooking up the enthusiasm for Obama to the Clinton wagon would prove irresistible to them. I think it much less likely that an Obama presidential nominee would seek Clinton as a running mate or that she would take it, but I guess anything is possible.
A reporter said tonight that the Clinton people think it will be McCain for the Republicans. I heard a powerful rationale for this recently. McCain might win and he is much less likely to lose by a lot than some other potential Republican nominees. The floor that is believed to exist in his vote in a presidential general election would serve as protection for Republicans against a blowout presidential victory for Democrats with long coat tails into the Congressional races.
I await with interest the explanation for why the New Hampshire result for the Democrats deviated so much from expectations in terms of public polls and reported thinking within the Clinton and Obama camps.
Hillary whimpered at the right time and women, showing compassion, switched to her and carried her to a two % points win over Obama.
CLINTON VS. MCCAIN.
THE WICKED WITCH VS. OLD GLORY.
I don't think the polls were wrong at the time they were taken.The momentum at the time was swelling for Obama.
That all changed very dramatically when Hillary showed her "human side" and Bill Clinton defended Hillary as being screwed by the media and her challengers, who after all, especially Edwards,[17%] had beat up a women.
Then women turned out in record numbers, voteing for Hillary "40% of her vote ]instead of Obama who still got the independant vote.
The lesson here is, clearly, men do not beat up on women regardless of whether it is physically or verbaly. It is unacceptable to do so.
Clayton Ellsworth
I would have bet that Obama was going to win. What a difference 24 hours can make. Some political geniuses have egg on their faces this morning.
Voice of Reason says . . . .
The fake crying had nothing to do with it. That is a myth created by the media "analysts" last night and perpetuated by people who believe whatever tickles their ears. The women who came out in supposed "droves" were going to vote for Hitlery no matter what she did, they would vote for Minnie Mouse just because she is a female.
Hitlery was going to win NH all along, the surprise was how much Osama was able to close the gap.
VoR
The Clinton win demonstrates not being too dependent on polls, expert opinions, etc. in making political (and other) decisions. The data-based expert predictors, pollsters and media can be wrong and may be even more so in the future from what I’m learning.
A former boss (now the CEO of Procter & Gamble) once commented to me:
“Slavish dependence on statistics, consultant studies, etc. is a great way to become an unemployed decision maker!”
Our world (especially government) has too many wonkish “data slaves” who frequently spend so much time analyzing that the rest of the world has already passed them by. Maybe the pollsters just missed the boat and voters were way ahead of them and their analysis/predictions?
"One clear loser in New Hampshire: conventional wisdom. R.I.P."
From a column by Dick Meyer at CBS News in analyzing the Clinton victory.
One of the better explanations I’ve heard on why the polls went astray on the Hillary Clinton win came from Dick Morris. He believes the polls screened out many people who said they were not going to vote and/or weren’t frequent voters. These voters then got caught up in the campaign hype and changed their minds and went to the polls and voted. In a high turnout election like New Hampshire this intensified the impact of screening out in the poll results. Complicated but sounds reasonable to me. How about you?
Here is an interesting political theory: Huckabee is in the race to take Romney out for John McCain.
http://www.article6blog.com/
A Wonk?
Data Slave?
Unemployed?
Gee, could there may be someone like that on this blog?
St. Pete--We need a poll to prove that.
Bill Richardson's out--who is next?
All these caucuses and primaries and I really don't see any winners from any party when about 60 percent of the voters cast their ballots for someone else. Doesn’t a winner have the majority of votes? I know, don’t tell me, that’s the way the election system works.
Interesting radio program Wednesday night about 10:30 pm gave what may have been a clue to one reason so many people turned out in new Hampshire:
Illegal Immigraion.
All of the polls were screened carefully to eliminate any reference to illegal immigration.
None of the polls asked any question of the rspondants about their views on illegal immigration, and none of the media asked any of the candidates about their views on illegal immigration in new Hampshire.
Yet the vast majority of Americans have strong views on illegal immigration. The commentator I heard opioned that voters were turning out and voting to embarass the pollsters and the media voices that all say the same thing. --pwf
BREAKING NEWS:
John Kerry to endorse Barack Obama.
Another opinion about why Clinton won: Hillary hidden votes. Clinton is perceived as a 'polarizing' figure, many women voters probably do not like to answer pollsters' calls and tell them they're going to vote for her under peer pressure of their husbands/family members in their household. If you look at her 2000/2006 senator races, especially 2000 race, she performed much, much better than her final polls. One Zogby poll gave her a one point lead, she ended up with 12 points win. In 2006, this 'Hillary effect' was not so obvious since she's more acceptable in NY. Since Iowa was a caucus contest, people had to express their opinions in public, this 'Hillary effect' was not so obvious. Hillary may continue to perform better than polls in primary contests, especially in Southern states.
Source: Politico Blog
Voice of Reason says . . . .
Dick Morris is revered as some sore of political genius but he was campaigning for Condi Rice last year and she zero chance for anything beyond the Bush administration. Rove is supposed to be some architect but he has drafted a Republican catastrophic collapse so far. The pundits are more like novel writers than analysts.
In his interview, judge Thomas said that he doesn't read newspapers and thinks newspaper writers are very unthorough analysts. The reporter kept asking him what he thought about what this or that writer had written and Thomas kept saying, "I don't know that person." We need more people like him in government.
VoR
PWF :
On illegal immigration : Not much of an issue in Iowa either which surprised me.
If illegal immigration was a hidden issue in New Hampshire, then the Three "amnesty " candidates, Clinton, Obama and McCain who won the most votes, gives us a clue as to the fact that amnesty votes are going to be stronger than I thought they would be.
Also of note is the fact that liberal profs and students were out for vaction this time around. This , no doubt hurt Obama.This group would probaly have been been "amnesty" voters.
I have felt, for about a month, that the pendulum was swinging back toward amnesty with "strong borders " away from the hard "Tancredo, Hunter, Dobbs line, which I personally favor.
Clayton Ellsworth
Bill Richardson dropped out on the Democrat side and that’s too bad, a good candidate. Who’s next? So long Old Freddy Boy Thompson & Mitt the Hairpiece Romney. Which backyard are Freddy Lovers Cretul and Hanson going to play in when Freddy departs? Those magic words conventional wisdom tells us Thompson will be out unless he can pull off a not likely political miracle in South Carolina. Romney has to win in Michigan to stay in. Thompson has been a disaster candidate. He entered late, has not been a media darling, has run a poor organized campaign and is badly falling in all the polls below where he was before even announcing a campaign. Other than that, all is well. Dropping out, which is inevitable, and throwing his support to McCain or Huckabee would be big for either campaign. Thompson can work in that campaign, Try to get McCain or Huckabee elected and then return to Law & Order where he likely can better help the country than he would have as President!
To answer the blog question. I think John McCain would best represent the political homeless.
As fewer independents are allowed to vote in several of the remaining primaries, I look for H. Clinton to mop the floor with B. Obama.
Perry, Thompson supporting Huckabee, you gotta be joking!
Just to change the subject a bit --it's a good thing that Dunnellon's Retiring Police Chief Robert Jackson didn't work for the City of Ocala or he probably would have been asked to leave/retire a lot earlier than now since he apparently promotes teamwork and is well respected and admired by his subordinates. Doubt that those qualities would generate much support from the current Ocala City Council members.
Voice of Reason says . . .
Maybe another topic for discussion: The doctors haven't railed about income for a long time. It seemed in the late 1980s and early 1990s there was much griping from the doctors about salaries. Also many stories of disgruntled doctors, "we can't get good quality young people to do this "tough" of work for the "low" salaries they can expect.
Why are they quiet now?
1. Did the Bush tax cuts put a lot more money in their pockets?
2. Is there actually lower salaries but the expectations of income from the newer doctors is lower?
3. Is the work easier?
Something has made the doctors suspiciously content over the last years.
Republican Presidential Candidates agreed last night that there will be no recession.
Fed Chairman Bernacke says no recession is forecast.
What dolts !
Clayton Ellsworth
Of course there is no recession Clayton.
Just ask my 401-K plan at work!!!!!
January 15th, Michigan will hold its primary. Michigan Democrats are being encouraged to vote for Mitt Romney, because if Mitt wins, Democrats win. How so?
For Michigan Democrats, the Democratic primary is meaningless since the DNC stripped the state of all its delegates (at least temporarily) for violating party rules. Hillary Clinton is alone on the ballot.
But on the GOP side, the primary will be fiercely contested. John McCain is currently enjoying the media love since his New Hampshire victory, while Iowa winner Mike Huckabee is expected to do well in South Carolina.
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney, who’s suffered back-to-back losses in the last week, desperately needs to win Michigan in order to keep his campaign afloat. Bottom line, if Romney loses Michigan, he's out. If he wins, he stays in.
Democrats believe the more Republican candidates fighting it out, trashing each other with negative ads and spending tons of money, the better it is for them.
Without a real Democratic contest on the ballot, and a lack of party registration in Michigan, this is an open primary. Anyone can pick up a Republican ballot. So Michigan Democrats and independents who want to see the Republican battle continue are being asked to cast a ballot for Mitt Romney in the Republican primary.
Why are the Michigan Dems doing this? Various politicos say: (1) because they can, (2) because it'll be fun, (3) and because they’ve suffered Republican meddling, stealing, and disenfranchisement in Michigan elections for way too long.
Sounds like something one of our local Republicans (e.g., Nancy Stacy) would do! Political mischief is not the sole property of Republicans!
As the presidential candidates focus now on the ecoonomy in Michigan and South Carolina, I would like to remind viewers of this blog that on August 19th of last year [open thread], I said that the economy would be the number 1 issue in the 2008 Presidential race.
In that post I enumerated many reasons why the economy would be issue number 1.
I am certain that my many of my "doom and gloom " posts about local housing, commercial developement on Rt 200, our local and state economy, the national economy, subprine mess, credit card debt [the next credit market crises] , etc., have been dismissed by most readers of this blog. After all, "What does he know?"
That, of course, is human nature.
People don't want to hear the negative, just let the good times roll on.
Unfortunately for our nation, the worst is yet to come. No political economic stimulus package can stop the momentum.
Let the candidates jabber on, while at the same time dismiss the possibility of recession. That folks is political double speak.
Clayton Ellsworth
Voice of Reason,
Sometimes I agree with you and sometimes I don’t. Your comment about physicians’ income is an “I don’t agree” situation. I’ll try to add some points, from experience serving on the Munroe Regional Hospital Board, for your consideration. I apologize for this long post, but you hit an area of great interest to me.
The physician community is far from quiet about income concerns. Their concerns have not let up and in fact have intensified. The griping that we heard in the late 80's and early 90's had to do with the debate over new medical/surgical residency requirements for caps on #hours worked. This was debated quite publicly with the old guard and medical education leadership lamenting how much easier it would be for new docs in residencies compared to what they had to do. Because these caps have been in place for some time, you're not hearing near as much about that anymore. The noise level from the physician community probably has much to do with the AMA's advocacy efforts; AMA hasn’t received very good marks lately for being able to speak with one voice for physicians.
However, there continues to be great concern from the physicians about declining incomes and increased workload. Just from our local experience, we are having major difficulty with call pay, especially orthopedics where we can barely cobble together a call schedule even with paying $900 per day because of concerns over the cost of follow up care (not being reimbursed), negative impact on their private practice, major concerns about malpractice insurance and of course workload/quality of life issues.
Added evidence of physician concern is our experience with physician recruitment where physicians do not want to consider taking a position or moving to Ocala without employment or some type of income guarantee. Even physicians who have been practicing for a long time are now considering employment arrangements or getting into ancillary ventures (many times in competition with hospitals) to supplement their incomes. 46 percent of Florida’s practicing physicians are over 50, an age at which surveys have shown many physicians consider reducing their patient care activities.
A few more points for you related to the 10 percent cut in Medicare payments for 2008 and an additional 5 percent cut in 2009:
-- The cuts have kept average 2007 Medicare physician payment rates about the same as they were in 2001-- Florida physicians will lose $1.5 billion for the care of elderly and disabled patients over the next two years. The state’s physicians will lose $24.1 billion for the care of elderly and disabled patients by 2016 due to nine years of cuts for this important medical care.
-- Compared to the rest of the U.S., Florida has an above-average proportion of Medicare patients and, at 15 practicing physicians per 1,000 beneficiaries, has a below-average ratio of physicians to Medicare beneficiaries, even before the cuts take effect.
-- Prevents physicians from making needed investments in staff and health information technology to support quality measurement.
-- Punishes physicians for participating in initiatives that encourage greater use of preventive care in order to reduce hospitalizations.
-- Has led to severe shortfalls in Medicare’s budget for physician services that have driven Congress to enact short-term solutions with funding methods that have actually increased both the duration of cuts, as well as the cost of a long-term solution.
-- Hurts access to care for America’s military families, as payment rates in the Department of Defense’s TRICARE program are tied to Medicare rates. 151,753 employees, 2.9 million Medicare patients and 688,205 TRICARE patients in Florida will be negatively affected by these cuts.
Why anyone (and many aren't) would want to become a doctor in our country is beyond me! Health care delivery is a national problem and should be getting much more discussion in the Presidential campaign. We can only assume no one has a solution.
If you want to give me a call and further discuss, just let me know via the blog and I’ll post my phone number.
More on Doctors pay.
I had 6 hours of prostate cancer surgery in September 2006.
Here is what the doctors were paid .
Surgeon - $1600 that is only $400 an hour
Anethesia $600 that is $100 an hour
Assistant Surgeon, less than that, I think $400
Hospital -approximately $16,000 for 4 days. The bill was over $60, 000.
There is nobody that rails more about doctors with big houses, luxury cars or poor care by incompetent doctors and hospitals than I do.
However, I was shocked when I saw what was paid in the above instance, as I also was last year when I had back surgery in Leesburg.
Concerning the high cost of malpractice insurance, good doctors are paying for the mistakes of bad doctors, but are unwilling to "out" them.
My primary care doctor told me a couple of years ago that Marion County was delivering only average health care in her opinion. Lack of good doctors was just one of the reasons.
Speaking of primary care docs. With a patient load of at least 30 -40 patients a day a family doc in Marion County is lucky to net out $145,000 to a $150,000 a year.
Many new family docs have huge student loans to pay off as well.
With the cut backs ahead in medicare as well as the fact that in the not too distant future medicare is going to have to start restricting benefits which will put a further dent in provider benefits.
Prior to knee replacement this week, my wife was questioned very thoroughly about the need for her surgery by the hospital prior to her admission date. Certainly , a precurser of things to come.
Here in Gods wating room {Florida], we seniors are going to see a much different health care delivery system with in the next few years. We might as well start getting used to it.
Clayton Ellsworth
Liability insurance is a big problem also. We have a friend who used to practice part time as an OB/GYN specialist. She has given up. Her last year she made $125,000but paid insurance of $89,000. She said the hastle was no longer worth it. She is now teaching at UF.
Bottom line is that physicians need to monitor their own. As long as they continue to back bad physicians their malpractice insurance will never go down. Medicare fraud is rampant. And why when there is a disucssion on health care it's always that the seniors and retirees are the ones being screwed? Maybe if they didn't run to the doctor for every ache and pain and quit using the doctors office as their source of a social life, our health care system would improve. Kind of like your car insurance; every time you have an accident, your insurance goes up or if you have too many claims, they drop you...think about it.
Sure, why not just kill off all the old folks in the country and the health care problem is solved!
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