Open Thread: What's On Your Mind?
{This thread is closed. Use the new "Open Thread" posted on December 22 for your discussion topics.}
Looks like you are getting tired and confused by all these property tax reform proposals.
So for a change of pace, let’s open up the discussion to some other topics of your choosing.
Here is a new thread for you to start a discussion on whatever is of current interest to you. Move any continuing discussion from the other Open Thread up here.
Go to it!
posted by Blog Master @ 7:46 AM
235 Comments:
Anyone know anything about Ocala City Manager Paul Nugent being asked to resign? I did not see anything in the Star Blunder but did see a TV news blurb about it from Gainesville.
As of yesterday, Marion County entities had over 103 million dollars frozen in the troubled high yielding state fund. The Marion County tax collectors fund has over 77 million The school board 11.5 million of that total.
When I reviewed the investments in this fund, some funds that I could identify seemed typical investments you would see money market funds use, others were "greek" to me.
One fund with several maturitys jumped out at me. Ocala Funding LLC
which bundles commercial paper. Standard and Poor recently down graded these securities to BBB, the lowest investment grade rating. [I point out that the rating companys were way off on sub prime ratings which they erroniously rated very highly. This is now being scrutinized by the SEC.]
Any time I see the words high yield, I see red flags. Any time I see bundled derivatives , I see more red flags. Derivatives always look better in a strong market, they lose their luster, especially in crunches.
Why not buy Ginnie Mae's garenteed [sp] by Uncle Sam and have been yielding around 6% ?
*source : SP Times,in PDF form from the fund.
Clayton Ellsworth
Nugent out--not surprising from what I hear. Watch for the County Mgr. to be next on the list.
Clayton,
I thought the County had already removed most of its money from this fund?
Marion County Road Maintenance Pay-Go?
Does anyone know the total MSTU bonding (loans) for road maintenance?
Are these bonds carried on the Marion County books as a liability?
My report was as of closing Thursday night published Friday and made available through St. Petersburg Times today which had links to this list as well as the investments involved.
Possibly the county was shut out at the window.
I will stand corrected if somebody can prove the above sources as wrong.
I had heard that they had pulled all the funds out, but this is obviously unconfirmed.
This type of investment is called an extendable ABSP which is a very complex security involving swaps.
The lure of a high yields was too much for local governments.
In or out, the county should not have invested in these derivatives.
Clayton Ellsworth
10:04am city guy
I think you are right on the money. Many sources think that way.
wait til star banner picks up on the gals stripping on golf course during tournament. let's see which councilman says he wasnt there.
Interesting comments about the City Manager and County Administrator. Watch for Randy Harris to emerge as the one to replace Pat Howard. The deal may have already been made!
Harris to replace Howard? Don't make me puke. Harris probably could not get one vote. The Commissioners are too smart to want anything to do with Randy. He should have retired undefeated, because now he's yesterday's tired old news.
It's true Nugent is gone.
Gunn Nutt says . . . .
Let's hope that everyone has enough sense to keep Randy Harris away from everything except the Picadilly Buffet line. Making him chief seat-warmer, I mean city/county manager, is a huge step backwards when we need to go forward right now. He is a Dark Ages, monolithic, anti-answer to the area's issues.
Harris thinks competiton from China means two Chinese restaurants opening-up too close to each other on the same block.
He thinks that a diversified economy means that local businesses hire people from different nationalities to flip burgers.
I hope that the City Council and County Commission are not that narrow-sighted and nepotistic. He would be a complete misfire or worse, a backfire.
If this issue were a gun collection, I'd put him way in the back with the flintlocks. He doesn't need to be back on the front rack.
To broaden on the comment above. The investment pool mentioned is a place for governments to put money for a few weeks, months or years. The pool is a sort of super money market fund where governments park money that they intend to use for various reasons, including operating expenses such as payroll. Most money market funds put sizable chunks of their deposits into Treasury bills, Treasury notes, federal government agency notes and certificates of deposit.
However, this state investment pool had almost none of its portfolio in those super-safe investments. Instead, most of its money is in so-called corporate and commercial paper.
The commercial paper includes securities backed by mortgages, and those kinds of mortgage-backed securities have lost value amid the housing market's slowdown. The investment pool is reportedly also holding nearly $2 billion in investments backed by mortgages that they cannot sell at face value, even though they are valued that way within the fund.
The local/county governments that got out of the fund early are fine, but the ones still in the fund could get hosed by not getting back dollar for dollar the money they put in the pool.
With Nugent on his way out how much longer before Howard is history?
Are you kidding me? Strippers on an Ocala golf course? I could believe that in California but not here.
Better not pee on Randy's political grave too fast. Stranger things have happened in Marion County politics. After all we are dealing with Republicans.
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I too noticed that the Star-Banner was scooped on the Nugent story, not just by TV-20, but by a reporter for TV-20 who normally works in Gainesville, not even in the TV-20 Marion County bureau. Perhaps the Star-Banner was busy reporting the latest news on publicly viewable royal clothing. I understand that Princess Diana once wore a pair of grey socks for several hours the Star-Banner hasn’t yet photographed and devoted several column feet to describing.
I don’t know much about Nugent’s job performance, but he has always seemed like a decent, knowledgeable guy in my limited dealings with him. As a city resident, I’ll be interested to learn more specifics about what have been areas of concern for council members.
They used to say that Mussolini was a dictator, but at least he made the trains run on time. Howard’s problem is that he has the dictator part down, but he doesn’t make the trains run on time.
If I were a Republican listing ways to hand control of the county commission to Democrats, appointing Randy Harris county administrator would definitely be near the top. I seriously doubt Harris got a majority of his fellow county commissioners’ votes in his bid last year to stay in the county government. Maybe there’s been a case of it, but I’ve never heard of a patient requesting re-implantation of his tumor once it’s been removed.
I’m not saying it’s inconceivable that Harris will ever return to local government. I think if it happens it will be in an election not in the immediate future with many voters who don’t know much about him, not because elected officials who know him well volunteer to wear an appointed albatross recently rejected by voters who is interested in upstaging them.
There’s a consequence of the housing slow-down I’ll bet even housing ace Clayton hasn’t thought of. Harris has fewer fresh suckers to work with than he might otherwise have had.
Terrific post by Brian. Right on the money. $$$$$$$
Also St. Pete explains well the make up of the troubled fund and the consequenses to the investors still in the fund.
High yield means greater risk.
Local governments should not have parked money in a fund that could not maintain liquidity forcing them to shut the window on redemptions.
Was the risk worth it ? Not for those who could not get out, for them it is going to be bloody.
State and local money managers are going to have to work harder with in depth due diligence.Those that did not, in this instance, should be terminated.
Localy, will the buck stop at General Howards desk ? [no pun intended ]
Clayton Ellsworth
An idea from up the road that should appeal to at least a couple of individuals who blog here:
"Put Homeless to Work on Sustainable Farms"
Here's a suggestion for dealing with homeless people: let's give them some work. Instead of society feeding the homeless, let's give them a chance to feed us.
Let's create farming centers to employ and re-direct people who are temporarily off-track. The agricultural sector has a serious labor crisis, and the best attempts to solve it have been illegal. Family farms are going under to developments, causing urban sprawl.
The demand for local foods far exceeds supply, but farms are suffering for lack of labor, and so are homeless people. Why not put them together?
Farm work camps should be designed for productivity and self-sufficiency. Shelter should be spartan, but with dignity. Work areas should be people-friendly. Crops should be diverse and labor intensive, providing challenges and education. Work should be hard and meaningful.
As soon as possible, workers should move on to stable jobs and homes in the "real world."
The farms could play a part in the development of a sustainable food supply system, along with food banks, farmers markets, web-based commerce and other mechanisms. Here is a way to save money, deal with the homeless, preserve farmland, and provide many other benefits to society.
David Reed,
Gainesville
(From the Gainesville Sun--the areas "REAL" news source)
Certainly not a bad idea.
From my perpsective, and I will bet many others, Brian is right on the money with his last post. I guess we are all on the Howard watch now to see how long he will last.
As county administrator, Howard has a big portfolio, Clayton, but I advise caution in assigning responsibility to him for the short-term investments you have been discussing. Much of the treasury function at the county level is focused in the constitutional office of Clerk of the Circuit Court, an office currently held by David Ellspermann. The county administrator is an employee of the collegial body of constitutional officers known as the Marion County Board of County Commissioners. I’m not sure, but you may end up finding a dotted line across an org chart between the clerk and the county administrator, but not the county administrator having direct control over how these short-term funds are invested. None of my comments should be taken as commentary on the quality of the county’s current short-term investments, which I have not investigated.
To clarify, I used the word "portfolio" above in an organizational sense, not in an investment sense.
I’d suggest you Howard Watchers are in for nothing happening. The General will get a public reaming out about his performance and will be told to do better. Next year at his review (after the election) he will still be around---not fired as some bloggers seem to think is going to happen right away. Just because the City Council has used poor judgment in the fairness of handling Paul Nugent, don’t jump to the conclusion the County Commissioners will do the same.
Marion County Road Maintenance Pay-Go?
Does anyone know the total MSTU bonding (loans) for road maintenance?
Are these bonds carried on the Marion County books as a liability?
You are correct. Screwing Paul Nugent isn’t license to screw Pat Howard.
Brian, is the tax collector who has the 77 million in question under the supervision of the Clerk Of The Circuit Court ? or the County Administrator ?
"Marion County" has $7,305,186 at stake, the General Fund $6,981,097.
The county has a Financial Director, which in my experience means chief fiduciary. This job would fall under General Howards rule.
Regardless, the county has more than just it's feet wet.
Clayton Ellsworth
Voice of Reason says . . . .
Even I have to admit that Creekbaum had a fantastic comment at 5:03am. I had to crack up at the ending.
As to Anon 8:00am, we have a government run farm program where the farmers wear green striped outfits. It is run by the Marion County Sheriff's Office. Instead of Mr. Greenjeans we have Mr. Greenstripes.
It is a program that insures that our most selfish criminal predators get our freshest and finest local food. And the farms are sustainable and very productive. The convicted criminals get out in the sun and raise fresh food. When they get back to jail they eat the fine fresh food and then lift weights. After they lift weights its off to play cards while they discuss lawless strategies with other criminals. After these strategy meetings, its off to to the canteen for a dessert and then some cable tv. The night is capped-off with a conjugal visit from their insignificant other.
The taxpayers pay for all this but have to go home and eat Beefaroni and Devil Dogs while watching local tv with rabbit ears.
The point is that there is no room for the homeless in Marion County farming, it is already saturated by all of the Mr. Greenstripes.
VoR
The bottom line is I do not have definitive answers to all Clayton would like to know but here is a quote from the Marion County Board of County Commissioners Investment Policy adopted September 6, 2006 available at http://www.marioncountyclerk.org/:
“Responsibility for the investment program is vested with the Clerk of the Circuit Court (“Clerk”). Responsibility for the administration of the investment program is hereby delegated by the Clerk of the Circuit Court to the Finance Director, who shall maintain an Investment Procedures and Internal Controls Manual based on this policy.”
The county administrator is mentioned nowhere in this document.
The same website states that the Clerk of the Circuit Court serves as the budget officer for the Marion County Board of County Commissioners..
If you look at the organizational chart for the office of the Marion County Clerk of the Circuit Court under Administration at the same website, you will see that both the Finance Director and Budget Director report to the Clerk.
Also, if you look at the organizational chart under Services at http://www.marioncountyfl.org/ you will see that none of this stuff is under the county administrator.
The relationships are networked, Clayton. Clearly, these people all have to work together in the budget process, for example, but it’s not one big hierarchical structure under a county administrator hired by the county commission as you might think at first blush from some of the job titles.
I don’t know if you’ve ever looked at the Consolidated Annual Financial Report for the county Clayton, but you might find it interesting. It also is at http://www.marioncountyclerk.org/ under Finance.
In reference to: "At 1:52 PM, December 02, 2007, not so fast said...
"Just because the City Council has used poor judgment in the fairness of handling Paul Nugent, don’t jump to the conclusion the County Commissioners will do the same."
and
At 2:20 PM, December 02, 2007, Anonymous said...
In reference to "Screwing Paul Nugent isn’t license to screw Pat Howard."
You both seem to think that Paul is getting "screwed and that Howard hasn't earned the same treatment. On what basis do you make this assertion? You don't think nice guys get terminated every day? Possibly it has taken longer at the County level and much had already been going on behind the scenes at the City level. Don't for one minute think these things just occur abruptly as much maneuvering has already taken place.
The lead up to an election or outfall after an election sometimes takes a while to appear in personnel matters. City and County Managers don't get fired because they're doing a great job. Both men know that termination is an occupational hazard and is the prerogative of a majority of the elected officials.
True, General Howard does not have the financial responsibility. That goes to Ellspermann. However, when the blue-ribbon citizen committee worked on the specs. for recruiting a county administrator when Jim Lowery retired, they recommended that the county admin. have a ‘dedicated’ finance/budget planning resource(s). I was an observer at several of the committee meetings and remember this coming up frequently as a need area. Unfortunately, Howard or others have not seen fit to do this and it could be his downfall.
I’m not saying that Ellspermann is not a good finance guy. What I’m saying is that with a budget the size of the one the county admin. is responsible for, he needs some independent expertise who can at times challenge and question Ellspermann and his staff on finance related issues. If the BCC is not happy with spending, it’s going to be the county admin., not Ellsperman, who takes the heat and maybe gets fired.
Harris for County Manager. I saw that last night and laughed so hard the tears shorted out my keyboard!
Randy, get off the blog man, you’re killing me!
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Clayton started out talking about who is investing the short-term money. The investment policy seems to make clear that isn’t the county administrator, but rather the clerk and his people. In pointing out the additional role of the clerk and his people in preparing the budget, which I understand to be largely a technical support role, I certainly did not mean to imply that the clerk bears primary responsibility for the size of the county budget with respect to functions under the county administrator. To the contrary, the county administrator is responsible for what he requests and the county commission for what they approve budget-wise. I don’t hold my pencil responsible for what I write with it or the wait staff at the restaurant responsible for how much pie I eat.
The possibility of a Harris comeback reminds me of a visit magician and skeptic James “The Amazing” Randi made to CFCC in Ocala in the 1990’s.
Randi performed some magic and also told of his experiences in the 1980’s investigating self-styled faith healer Peter Popoff. Popoff ran tent revivals that filled arenas. He would approach people he had never met, pluck them from the audience and, amazingly, tell them specific things about themselves like their name, address, and affliction that Popoff claimed on CNN he got from god. He would then dramatically bop them on the forehead to heal them. Reportedly, Popoff made $4 million per year doing this.
Randi followed Popoff around the country applying his magician’s eye to what Popoff was doing in these revivals.
At CFCC, Randi ran a videotape of an appearance he made on the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson in the 1980’s. During the interview with Johnny, who was an amateur magician and Randi fan, they ran tape of one of Popoff’s performances, only with one feature not normally available to people watching Popoff work his “miracles” – a soundtrack of radio transmissions Randi intercepted between Popoff’s wife and Popoff. It turned out that Popoff’s wife culled information from prayer cards turned in by audience members entering the revivals, then she would transmit from backstage during the show to a tiny receiver in her husband’s ear, directing her husband to the person in the audience she had pre-interviewed and feeding him the info on them as he performed.
Wikipedia claims that some of the participants at the revivals walked in and were then seated in wheelchairs, with Popoff later laying his hands on them to produce a “miracle.”
Popoff claimed NBC ran a doctored tape with an actress playing his wife, but with the debunking on nationwide television Popoff was bankrupt by 1987.
At CFCC, after playing the old tape, Randi told us of a woman who had been a Popoff follower who approached him some time after this debunking on the Tonight Show. She thanked Randi profusely for exposing Popoff for what he was and for saving her from being taken in by him further. The Amazing Randi then told us one additional amazing fact. The woman was no longer a Popoff follower but had latched on to some other charlatan.
A couple of years ago I was up late like I am now and was startled to see Popoff on a late-night infomercial hawking miracle healing water. I think it was from Russia, supposedly. The infomercial included Popoff talking in a television studio misleadingly intercut with old footage of Popoff doing revivals before large crowds. The guy is about as phony as the color of his now badly dyed hair, but you can go on the internet and see recent reports of him pulling in a half-million a year and driving a Porsche.
If Popoff can find more suckers, I don’t doubt that Harris can too. The market for those in the business of playing to the weaknesses of people eager to hear what they want to hear is quite large as Harris has already proven here in Marion County.
Randi had a disappointingly small audience of about thirty in the CFCC auditorium when I saw him here in the 1990’s, but thanks to YouTube you can see some of what I’ve just described by going to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7BQKu0YP8Y.
If the link above doesn’t work you can also go to
http://www.youtube.com
and type in the words “James Randi Debunks Peter Popoff Faith Healer” as a search.
See also an Inside Edition report by going to
http://www.youtube.com
and typing in “Peter Popoff vs James Randi 2007” as a search and a 20/20 report by searching for “Peter Popoff and James Randi in May 2007.” Both are relatively recent reports.
As a former local elected official e-mailed me just last week: “Harris will resurface. Never underestimate his ego or desire for accumulation of power.”
B. Creekbaum commented about the Star Banner missing a couple of political news stories. I was playing golf on Sunday with a couple of friends who are teachers. They mentioned they had heard that Kurt Kelly has tossed his hat in the ring to become Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives. What’s up with that one?
Of Course He did Kurt is on his way to be The next Gov!
For the record:
The county administrator's people prepare their requests for spending and submits (usually on line) them to the Clerk of the Circuit Court's Bugdet Director.
The Clerk is actually the county's Finance Officer. The Budget Director puts the budgets in proper form, and thery are available for the County Administrator's review, his slicing, dicing, and his final stamp of approval. They then by July 15, are put into "tentative Proposed Budget" status, and advertised so the commission can establish the tentative milage rate in August for Trim Notices, above which they can not go.
Budget workshops are then held by the Commission in August and early September, and the Tentative Budget is advertised for two public hearings in late Seotember.
So. the first figures are put together by the department heads, assembled by the Clerk's Budget Director, reviewed by the County Administrator, re-put together and submitted by the Budget Director, submitted to the commisision by the Clerk.
The Administrator is responsible for the figires and for all of the spending. The commissioners are his boss, and have ultimate responsibility because they authorize the spending.
One writer is correct. The County Adm Qualifications Committee (or whatever it was called) on which I served, did call for finance help for the county administrator. And, contrary to the post above, that position has been filled by a young lady (I can not remember her name at this senior moment) but seemed to be highly qualified when hired.
The Clerk and his Budget Director are the bookeepers, the check writers and the auditors. And to correct the impression someone left some time ago, yes, all department of county government are audited by outside, independent auditors each year, and have been for every year since I have been here.
Problem is nobody cares enough to read the audits. Most of the suggestions of the auditors for improvements have been implemented too. --pwf
Didn't nmean to poist as anon, but I can't figure out this new posting system.
sorry -- pwf
Brian and anom:
Thank you for clarifying whose watch the fiduciary responsibilies fall under.
The decision to park county monies in a high yield state fund that can not make redemptions, although it may be temperary, is lousy stewardship of taxpayer money.
Residential Mortgage Backed Securities which are at the crux of the sub-prime credit problems,first caught negative opinions in early 2006, possibly earlier than this.
These warnings were, of course ignored, as is evident by the fact 4% of the troubled state fund was comprised of derivtive [RMBS] securities, in this case, commercial paper, some of which was bundled and sold by Ocala Funding LLC. The rest was Country Wide and others.
The magnet of the high yield that the state offered local governments was very powerful. So, of course, the argument that "everybody was doing it," will be compelling.
In my view, this was a lazy and imprudent way to handle tax payers money. We deserve better.
Let the chips fall where they may.
Clayton Ellsworth
Todays New York Times has an opinion piece by Paul Krugman about our failing financial system, highlighting "inovative ionvestments" like sub prime debt that are destroying our financial system. [He quotes bill Gross of Pimco.]
Florida's investment pool for local governments also receives prominent mention, negative, of course.
Klugman also says subprime debt has been devalued 1/3, which is more than the Florida fund claims when they "marked to market" their subprime debt. What market were they looking at ?
Klugman's opinion supports much of what I have been saying on this blog.
Clayton Ellsworth
Pwf left out one final step in the budget process. After the county commission approves the usually larger budget and the mechanisms to fund it, including a property tax rate above the rollback rate in the expectation of collecting more property tax than previously (usually an increase more than proportionate to population growth), the county commissioners send out mailings during elections that prominently feature bar charts of relatively stable property tax RATES, subtly or not so subtly implying that they are holding the line on things and if you are paying higher property taxes it must be because of that bigger valuation on your property which they didn’t do. Go see the property appraiser, who is a separate constitutional officer over whom they do not have control. The idea is for the candidate to escape a charge that he lied by making the text in the ad literally true but to have that text visually overwhelmed by the only visual image in the ad – the bar chart of RATES.
I spoke to a Republican county commission candidate in 2002 who said then county commissioner Steve Henning had advised the candidate to always talk about property tax RATES, not property TAXES.
We could go back and check, but to the best of my recollection at this moment, pwf worked on one of these ads for Kesselring in 2004 that I received through the mail. I recall telling Stan Hanson what flim-flam these ads are when he told me in 2004 that the Kesselring ad might be coming. Harris personally worked on such an ad in an effort to re-elect himself using taxpayer money in 2006. That ad, which cost taxpayers thousands of dollars, appeared full-page in the Star-Banner. I have copies of the preliminary documents written in Harris’ own hand that of course prominently feature a bar chart of RATES with nothing else getting visual treatment.
The Star Banner is now reporting about Paul on its website.
I see all the bleeding hearts are on the Star Blunder blog supporting Nugent (many of them probably incompetents fearing loss of his protection).
They forget that 25 years with the City means nothing when you sign on as the City Manager. Your employment is based on what have you done successfully for the City TODAY and what are you going to do TOMORROW, not what you did 25 years ago. That's the problem with the civil service mentality. I know Nugent and find him a nice, inflexible government dud!
What the Council needs to do is stay tough and not be influenced by the bleeding hearts. They need to bring in an "outsider" who has no skeletons in the closet that he must protect. Bring them in and let them take an axe to the dead wood in City Hall---and fellow City residents it's there in bunches!!!
I read the Star-Banner article, which is strikingly lacking in specifics. Does anyone here have any idea what the council-determined polices are whose implementation Nugent is allegedly impeding?
It’s interesting how the same things come up over and over in government. Getting rid of deadwood is what the city council supposedly hired Nugent’s predecessor, Susan Miller, to do. Miller was a hardheaded CPA with no local ties. What happened?
When I researched the 1970’s era Cunningham election that I posted about months back, I saw Star-Banner articles in that era reporting that the county commission was deferring road improvements and that golfers were complaining they would have to quit playing golf because of fee increases for the municipal golf course. It was almost spooky to read this stuff.
Radical talk is common. Radical change is not.
BC said..."Radical talk is common. Radical change is not."
I agree totally when it comes to politicians and many of those involved with administering our government.
I disagree totally when you apply that statement to most of today's good business organizations.
The IBMs and GEs of the world became too much like government and had to change. I would like to see the government types become a bit more like the modern IBMs and GMs. Don't give me the profit stuff--I'm talking about just using good ways of doing things.
I don't know much about Mr. Nugent. But if a business CEO rejects the direction of his BOD, they usually aren't kept around too long. I have been lead to believe that Mr. Nugent has not carried out the wishes of his BOD (City Council) and therein is the problem.
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I agree. My comment was an observation based on actual government behavior. Normatively, I too would like to see government run more like a business.
As far back as the 1990’s I have supplied council members material and/or comment relative to the practices of Stephen Goldsmith as mayor of Indianapolis who later became a domestic policy adviser to President George W. Bush. Goldsmith sought ways to harness market forces to improve government. When Kent Guinn was running the first time (unsuccessfully) circa 1997 or so he told me he couldn’t get elected if he advocated a lot of the stuff in the material I gave him. Too radical.
I don’t know what Paul Nugent has done relative to what the city council has told him to do. I would be interested in reading specifics from anyone knowledgeable about this.
By the way, for any Susan Miller fans out there, I was in a hurry above and meant "hard-nosed," not "hard-headed" in describing what was the case made for bringing her in.
If the City Council can find someone with Nugent's personality and smoozing skills and Miller's financial and planning skills, that would be a good City Manager. As a matter of fact the same goes for the County Manager job.
PWF,
The young lady you mentioned who filled the county finance position left that position a few months ago to move to another job in the county. They are now looking for a more high powered person to replace her.
I agree with pdf....I don't mean to go in as Anom but blog master needs to tell us how to start out with our name as format has changed??? Personally I believe that Susan Miller is the one who got screwed......Her intelligence intimidated the dickens out of the fools on the City Council at the time. I understand she has totally retired now from all jobs but had I been on the City Council I would have gone to the mat fighting for her to stay. Mike Finn and I would have simply put on gloves and boxed it out. Course I would have coaxed a few drinks down him first to give me the edge. LOL Susan could have straightened that mess out except no one wants it straightened out which is why Nugent was planted in that position in the first place thanks to Mike Finn who in my opinion was horrified by smart people like Susan.....
Nancy Stacy
The SP Times reports that the consulting firm, Black Rock inc. has recommended to the State Board Of Administration, responsible for the troubled local fund, the following.
Split the fund into two parts, high risk, which amountsfor 14% of the fund, and 86% investments Black Rock has deemed OK.
"This would allow governments to have SOME ACESS IN THE FUTURE for expense needs.
The "tainted" investments would be held until "current market conditions improve". [This could be a very long time]
Governor Christ said the state would not back up the local fund by using the $137 billion pension fund, a relief, I am certain for pensioners.
Please notice that the high risk category has gone from 4% to 14%.
The State Board Of Administration meets today to consider this recommendation, and possibly others, then decide what to do with the "local" fund.
Clayton Ellsworth
once again Nancy you stick your foot in that mouth of yours.
The only way you feel you can win an argument is to "coax a few drinks down him first to give me the edge"?
Why can't you just have debate on an level playing field? Don't manipulate anything, just bring facts.
Do some homework on Susan Miller. Then in the big scope of things find out if she was good or bad for the city of Ocala. Just be careful what you find. It may be factual and hurt your argument.
Now, I'm going for a drink!!
Not long after getting here, as I recall, Susan Miller presented her plan at a city council meeting for golf, which was having problems. The Star-Banner reported that Finn’s response to her plan was so positive that he referred to her as “The Messiah.” Sounded pretty supportive to me.
A few years later, the city resorted to hiring a golf consultant for the latest golf “fix.”
It remains a mystery to me how bloggers can complain about how their tax money is being spent yet show no interest in how their tax dollars are being invested.
14% of the investments in the "local" fund are now classified as high risk. I referred to them more gently as being of "greater risk".
Some of these commercial paper derivatives were issued by Country Wide whose Chairman yesterday said not to rule out bankruptcy.
These securitys were sold as "bankruptcy remote" because theoretically they could be swapped at market value for US backed Ginnie Mae securities. Problem is the swaps aren't working. Who would want this garbage ?
In case new bloggers didn't read my earlier posts, Marion County has 103 million $$ of tax payer money frozen in this fund, with little chance of getting out whole
Clayton Ellsworth
Brian
Why must you be such a dud. That was a joke....I said bla bla...give him a few drinks to give me the edge in the BOXING ring silly boy.......Mike is twice my size. You and I agree on nothing so therefore if you did agree with me on Ms Miller I would definitely have to re-examine my position on her. The minute Susan began talking about cutting out waste she was thrown to the wolves by Mike Finn for starters. However.....you LOVE waste in my opinion since you are "Mr. Library Man" where thousands of wasteful dollars were spent on books that will possibly never even get opened! Ugh... I SAY CLOSE ALL BUT ONE LIBRARY IN THE COUNTY PLUS ALL THESE PARKS THAT NO ONE GOES TO MAKING THEM SCARY TO SET FOOT ON UNLESS YOU CART A GUN WITH YOU!! IF CITY FOLK WANT ADDITIONAL LIBRARIES THEN OPEN THE LOCAL HIGHSCHOOL ONE AT NIGHT IN THAT AREA AND UTILIZE THE BOOKS THE TAXPAYERS ALREADY BOUGHT ONCE! THEN......RE-ELECT RANDY HARRIS TO MAKE SURE YOU LIBS DON'T BUY THE PROPERTY BACK AT 10 TIMES THE PRICE IT IS WORTH AS YOU DID THE FIRST TIME IT WAS BOUGHT!!!
TEE HEE....bet you need another drink now!
Nancy Stacy
Mr. Ellsworth,
After seven years of overseeing Florida's investment portfolio, Coleman Stipanovich suddenly resigned his $181,000 amid the upheaval over a massive withdrawal of a local government investment pool.
Anon :
The resigned director was lauded yesterday by Governor Crist as "a hard worker ".
More to follow.
Clayton Ellsworth
Funny that no one goes into the county parks but they are so widely used people are asking that they be expanded and more developed. And if you did go to a library you would find children doing research work, learning to read good books, working on school projects just like we did when I was a kid only we had to go a long way to get to our library. Sorry, Charlie, but libraries and parks are here to stay. They are popular, well utilized, and some of the few really good public services that taxpayers get and can actually utilize for their hard earned dollars. --pwf
I suggest Nancy Stacy pay more attention to the names on the posts to which she is responding since mine is not on any post about any drinks. According to the voter records I pulled in July, Stacy does not live in the City of Ocala.
Brian,
If I wrongly assumed you were the anonym then I'm sorry. I know some people post under both anonym and their names although I do not. It just sounded SOOOO much like you I still find it hard to believe it wasn't BUT if you state it wasn't I accept that. Also....what's me living in the County got to do with anything?? The City still gets part of MY sales taxes, state tax dollars paid by us all and fed dollars paid by us all. I never said I lived in the City? I like not paying City taxes. LOL However, my property will probably soon be drawn into the City which I look forward to subdividing our land, making a million or two and buying a LARGE farm if I want! Per pwf...regarding people calling for more parks????.......oh yes....the liberals love government owning land as that is the first big step toward socialism. I say shut down the parks that don't have 8 cars a day drive up to them!!! That would be half of them as they are often in God forsaken land, wooded and flat scarry. Us parents were terrified to take our kids to those parks unless we went as a huge group. Been there....KNOW about the parks as I raised 3 children here. We went to Jervey, one in Belleview, one off of 17th St at the baseball field (Scott Carrigan Field) and even THAT last one behind the baseball field we walked up on two homosexuals having sex on the children's swingset in the MIDDLE of OCALA on a Monday morning at 10AM and they didn't even stop when the kids ran up???? So....last trip to that one! If that was going on in DOWNTOWN Ocala off of 17th Street what do you think goes on at Cahojoe(sp?) out by Booster off 36th where there's LOTS of privacy?????
For Peters Sake....a gal was raped a few years ago at the darn one right there on 36th Jervey Gant!!! I would consider that one the MOST safe. No one has been raped at the others because no women are brave enough to take their kids there unless they are in a large group! Ugh....I reiterate....sell them all except a few. If we sold them, put them so they could be taxed everyone could afford a swingset for their own backyard.
Nancy Stacy
sounds like this stacy dame is actually john lund
The State Board Of Administration has made their recommendations as what has to be done to the "local" fund and has retained Blackstone to implement their recommendations.
Temperary partial withdrawals to meet immediate needs to local governments will be possible as soon as Thursday.
While the Board makes a recommendation that the fund guarentees that investors be made whole eventually, this will only happen after the fund is restructured, cash flow is then positive enough to buy all AAA investments and replace the 16% of junk they have.Then there will be structured withdrawals to prevent another run on the fund.
In my opinion, the board will have a difficult time meeting all their objectives in today's lousy credit market.
It all sounds good, more of a political statement than a statement of actual guarentees that are possible.
Clayton Ellsworth
u mean nasty nancy is actually big mean john?
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. I have never posted to this blog one syllable in anything other than my own full name.
I have written admission from one individual that he has posted here with at least two identities other than anonymous. I have also seen material he said he would post show up minutes later as posted by “anonymous.” I suspect he has used many more identities than the number to which he has admitted to me. This individual also has admitted directly to me lying to cover his local political activities. This sort of person needs the anonymity here, not me.
The Supreme Court has opined on the protection that anonymous speech enjoys under the First Amendment. Yes, some people may be subject to circumstances that make it difficult for them to post unvarnished political opinions. However, I’ve seen anonymity used here to avoid responsibility for sloppy research and flat-out lying. You can also bet there are persons here who will post anonymous agreement with themselves and anonymous hoax threats to manipulate the opinions of others.
I’m ready any day of the week to eliminate this manipulative bull as practiced by some others by going to a system of posting where a verifiable identity with full name is required to post, and I’ve been ready to do that since I first posted here in 2005 just days after this blog started.
I know it is not as juicy as the City Manager resigning, but does anyone know the answer to my question?
Marion County Road Maintenance Pay-Go?
Does anyone know the total MSTU bonding (loans) for road maintenance?
Are these bonds carried on the Marion County books as a liability?
I doubt anyone will ever convince Nancy Stacy of the need for parks. However, for the record here are the utilization figures only for county parks that totally blow away Nancy’s claim that no one uses the parks. I would also say these figures are probably on the low side because not all parks have counters.
Visits in 05/06: 434, 686
Visits in 06/07: 472, 295
So no one is using the parks? Add whatever visitor data the various cities (Ocala, Dunnellon, etc.) have and I’d say there are many people using the parks.
Additionally, in 06/07 the county parks generated nearly $600,000 in user fees toward the operation of the county parks.
The park Nancy mentioned where the “sex” happened is a city park (with a history of what she describes) not a county park. If it were part of the county system, the Park Rangers would likely be seeing to it that someone was arrested! Perhaps consolidating the city and county parks, as is being considered, might help prevent the kind of situation she mentioned.
Lastly, I would ask Nancy to go up to the north Marion area and tell all those Randy Harris supporters that the county should close Wrigley Fields. They would set her straight pretty fast about how they feel about that park and several others.
Nancy, I respect your opinion. However, I don’t believe you are in touch with the reality of thinking of conservatives, as well as liberals, on the issue of the value and use of parks.
Just my opinion, and I’m sure as hell no liberal—just ask Brian!
P.S.: The visit figures are the "number of cars" entering a park. Consider that each car has 3-4 occupants and you will get a more realistic count of "citizens" using the parks.
In response to Stan…
Visits in 05/06: 434, 686
Visits in 06/07: 472, 295
I like parks, but check your math.
434,686 divided by 5 = 86,937
472,295 divided by 6 = 70,716
That is an 18.6% decrease in park utilization.
During a time of harder economic times it would make sense that citizens would visit our low cost parks as opposed to more expensive entertainment.
Stan… Sorry there was dirt on my calculator, 8 looked like a 0.
473,295 divided by 6 = 78,716
That is a 9% decrease in park utilization.
There are people who post anonymously to avoid responsibility for their sloppy research, and then there is Nancy Stacy, who takes responsibility for her sloppy “research” by posting with her own name. She is to be commended for helping us put a name to her misinformation about parks and libraries. The library collects all kinds of usage statistics that put the lie to her claims but given the way she was just discredited on parks I don’t see the need to spend my time retrieving the library numbers.
anonymous 7:22 and 7:28pm.
I'm not sure your fuzzy math can be blamed on your calculator but clearly there has been an increase in County park usage.
Since parks are not agriculture, can anyone do the math to produce the non-homesteaded property tax revenue that would have been generated if a private citizen as opposed to the government owned the parks?
Anonymous 7:22 and 7:28pm:
Would you explain to us why you divided the park utilization figures by 5 & 6.
It looks to me like the figures were for the years 2005-06 and 2006-07.
And as stated, that's an increase in use not a decrease.
Even if you take them numbers as totals, and not monthly aggregates….
434,686 divided by 12 = 36,223
472,295 divided by 12 = 39,357
But you have an extra month so take 11/12th or 36,078.
It is still a decrease.
You can make the numbers work in your favor by doing the following….
434,686 divided by 12 = 36,223
472,295 divided by 13 = 36,330
A 2-10ths of 1% increase.
I believe Stans figures are for 12 months in 2005-2006 and for 12 months in 2006-2007. You ca divide to get a monthly usage figure if you like. --pwf
Isn’t communication or mistaken communication a wonderful thing?
05/06 to me would be May 2006.
05-06 to me would be 2005 through 2006.
How simple is it for us to misunderstand each other, and we are speaking the same language.
Since I don’t really know the data, who knows? Maybe Stan can clarify….
I think Stan needs to state his source....
WOW!
I can’t believe my park figures already attracted so much comment. Of course, “no comment” yet from our friend Nancy.
The figures are for the 12 months ending September 30, 2006 and September 30, 2007. September 30 is the counties fiscal year end.
Source: the Monthly Park Traffic Counts report for the year ending September 30, 2007.
There was an increase in use of 8.7% (12 months to 12 months comparison).
Sorry I confused you.
I googled: Park Traffic Counts Marion County, Fl and got nothing. Can you be more specfic about your source? I would like to read it for myself, novice at this game. Thanks...
You won’t find the report online.
Call the Marion County Parks Office (671-8557) and make a public records request for it.
Thank you Stan,
If the Internet is basically free…. Why aren’t all government records made public?
No one should have to request public records. Transparency of any business, government is the best public policy. Minus of course social security numbers and court ordered protection of minor children.
You might want to keep in mind that some agencies will try to make you reduce a public records request to writing but there is case law that says oral requests have just as much legal force as written ones. They can request that you put it in writing, but they cannot make it a condition of fulfilling a request for public records. It has also been established that requests can be made anonymously if the requestor wishes.
I would suggest the person who keeps asking about bonding related to MSTUs take a look in the Consolidated Annual Financial Report (under Finance in lower left at http://www.marioncountyclerk.org/) and/or contact Finance Director John Garri. The clerk’s website lists 671-5520 as the telephone number for Accounting & Finance. I’ve found Garri helpful when I’ve needed information from him.
Wow! Kent Guinn made an about face with his support for Paul Nugent. Last Thursday he wanted him gone now on the 11:00pm news he says he's "embarrassed to be a council member and God save the city of Ocala." Kent I'm embarrassed you're a city council member too. Also, EL Foster (former mayor) was indignant that Paul resigned. Of course EL also wanted David Clark as mayor so right now the return to those wonderfull days of "yesteryear" won't happen. For that I thank God. Maybe Kent and EL should quit living in the past. Folks should remember that elected city council members are implementing changes that maybe their constituents wanted made. Paul will have to suffer through 13 months of severance pay and then retire with a full taxpayer funded pension. Who's feeling sorry for him now?
10:22PM
Records requests are no big deal. Just call and tell them what you want and you can stop and pick it up or they will send what you want to you. I have made several at Belleview city govt. offices and various county offices and never had any problems.
Obviously, the person who says records requests are no big deal has never requested resumes being reviewed by search committee members during a Munroe CEO search from Stan Hanson, the hospital board member who chaired Munroe’s CEO search committee. That was the search for the head of our public hospital that Stan ran like a CIA black bag operation.
Stan went nuts in 2001 when I made a public records request for e-mail he sent then county commissioner Larry Cretul at Cretul’s private e-mail account concerning a public library matter on which he was advising Cretul. The public records laws are quite clear that a public record is a public record regardless of who owns the resources used to create it. Otherwise, government officials could do government business out of their homes while avoiding the creation of records inspectable by the public. Governor Bush used to respond to official e-mail using his privately-owned laptop, but this didn’t mean his responses were not public record.
If you think all government officials in Marion County have been complying throughout the e-mail explosion over the past ten years with the public records retention requirements on e-mail sent to their private e-mail accounts that is completely outside the control of government information systems departments, then I have some swampland for you.
Even after the Munroe CEO search fiasco, Munroe attempted to require me to put a simple public records request in writing. They backed down when I confronted them with the law. County Administrator Pat Howard’s office has tried the same thing with me even after the Star-Banner publicly busted them for this practice in their annual review of local public records law compliance. Howard’s office also backed down.
I also ran into a couple of individuals at the Ocala Police Department with interesting attitudes about public records. They didn’t actually arrest me for having the temerity to request a public record, but I think they would have liked to. When I later related the incident to a Star-Banner editor, he said he was surprised they didn’t try to strip search me for asking for the records, which should tell you something about what the Star-Banner has run into.
I have much experience in this area. Usually things are straightforward as someone suggests above, but not always. If you ever have problems, take a look at the Government in the Sunshine Manual on the Florida Attorney General’s website or contact the First Amendment Foundation for information on what you can do, which can include legal remedies. Also, the Florida Attorney General’s office runs a mediation program to resolve disputes in this area.
Wow !!!!
It looks like I should stay up at night, calculator in hand, and as I have done in the past,miss a decimal point or two.
Might even be better than the dreams I have had lately, wondering why I find myself agreeing with Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingerich.
Clayton Ellsworth
Brian Creekbaum has NEVER posted anonymously? Current & former politicians post comments? John Lund adds his opinions? Nancy Stacy is really Nancy Stacy? Star Banner and St. Petersburg Times staff participate on the blog? The blog has new owners? The blog is shutting down operations? Oh the mysteries of blogger world! TEE HEE
Clayton, our SBA expert:
See the Star Banner says everything is going to be just fine with that investment fund. What say you?
Asked and answered :
In their dreams.There is no way, I repeat, no way, Black Rock or any body else can guarentee that investors of local government can come out of the in one piece now and in the near future.
Big investors are already stating that there is no way they will put money in the fund until it is sound again.
It will take the big money making big deposits to make the fund anything remotely sound.
There were no guarentees made by the State Board Of Administration, just lip service.
Currently Marion County has the 103 million in the fund I reported earlier and will not be able to take out more than 15% of that without incurring a stiff penalty.
Ocala has 25 million and change in the fund, Dunnellon has over 3 million in the fund.
Marion County made, as needed withdrawals in November, of approximately 10 million up until November 26th and 29th when they went to the window for 110 million.Does this look like the county had confidence in the fund to the Star Banner ?
Ocala withdrew 100 million on November 14th when Standard and Poor downgraded some of the paper.
Does this look like the City of Ocala Finance Director had confidence in the fund to the Star Banner?
The 14% of high risk paper isn't going to get any better, just worse.
I can understand governments like Dunnellon, lacking the sophistication to analize the state fund. They, like many other small identities, I am sure, deposited their money in good faith and they are going to get screwed.
On the other hand, Marion County should have looked at the investments very carefully, line by line,by experts with knowledge of the markets. Had they done so, they would have pulled the plug in August, September, and October not November 26th and 28th.The handwriting was on the wall in capital letters.
Clayton Ellsworth
Now that it's official that Paul Nugent has reigned as city mgr., we should not weep too much for him. After all, how many people can resign and get 13 months full pay and benefits. What a deal!
anon 11:24 sez EL Foster wanted david clark as mayor for the return the wonderfull days of "yesteryear" won't happen. at least clark has a spine and would have said something. mayor ewers hasn't figured out what leadership means yet. what a joke. maybe rude charlie ruse and his buddy kyle kay will bring randy harris back as city manager!
In my earlier post responding to the remark that the Star Banner said, everything would be OK with the troubled state fund, a remark I can't find,by the way, I should have mentioned how much Marion County is faced with losing.
No depositor can withdrawal 14%, the percentage of bad paper the fund has, according to Black Rock.
14% of 103 million is 14 million, 400 thousand and change, which in all probability the county will lose. You can't turn garbage into prime steak and key lime pie.
Doesn't pay to fall asleep at the switch, does it ?
Clayton Ellsworth
Looks to me like Paul Nugent has the last laugh on the idots who forced him out. 13 months is not pocket change and he can look for something else while putting in his time.
Kurt Kelly is off to an excellent start as our State Representative. He has introduced a desal bill that is now being co-sponsored by an influential Senate member. I heard from one of the Republican State committee people that Mr. Kelly will also be working on keeping the U.S. from signing the Law of the Seas Treaty (LOST) that would put the United Nations in charge of the world’s supply of sea water. Good for Kurt! Maybe now some of you naysayers will start to appreciate what an outstanding and promising young legislator we have in Marion County.
Voice of Reason says . . . .
What in the world is Kelly going to do about the LOST Treaty? He's a lowly state guy and that is a U.S. treaty. Maybe he will use his vast assistant football coaching experience to persuade European elites? Please don't take us for imbeciles. I know he has has garnered zero press since taking office but it doesn't help to drum-up make-believe newspaper copy.
On a better note, this Jurassic era Nugent brontosaurus is a perfect example of the whole government ponzi scheme. We constantly hear how municipalities must offer these bloated salaries and benefits so that they can "attract the best talent." But, like Nugent, the "talent" is subprime (pardon the pun). The ostensible reason that Ocala is allowing Nugent to drain resources for another 13 months is so that "Ocala can keep a good reputation for taking care of its' employees." That reputation will, in turn, allow Ocala to continue to attract the best and brightest talent.
It's hard to see hope for this place. Have you seen the faces out there? A lot of long faces with not a lot of hope in this town. Everyone is talking about the dismal government officials and representatives, the lack of direction and leadership, lack of ethics and the inability to keep our kids and grandkids here. Do you of any young person who says, "I want to come back to Ocala and Marion County when I graduate or when my commitment in the Army is over?"
VoR
Truer words were never spoken. I don't always agree with you, but you are right on this one. There is no hope for this place.
Voice of Reason says . . .
Thanks for the co-misery 11:21. I am really having a hard time comprehending the Nugent severance. I have known people who were let go from very good positions with very good companies. These people were let go, not for their performance, but for economic conditions, overseas competition, etc.
A typical severance package would be a decent lump sum and 6-12 weeks of salary. I guess that they could also go on unemployment also but I don't know. How does Nugent get 13 months of severance? Even if he is claiming to remain working at all, how can he be any more effective than he was up to this point?
VoR
It is my understanding, having worked on some county issues, that government execs have a six month severence package. In fact, although Jim Lowry's contract merely expired, i.e., it was not renewed, it called for him to get six months salary. And as I read the Nugent story, he retires eeffective July 1 but he has unused vacation and sick pay and that is what makes it be a year or so.
On the Banner forum someone asked a very interesting question: In October, he was given an evaluation by the five council members. It was a fairly good evaluation, like a A- or B+. They asked what happened in the last six weeks? Good question. --pwf
Pwf’s understanding of Nugent’s situation is mine as well. In addition, to the best of my recollection from reviewing several years ago the termination provisions of County Administrator Pat Howard’s employment contract, it provided for six months severance unless the termination was for cause. This contract was negotiated by the chairman of the county commission at the time, Randy Harris, the individual some on this blog laud as some sort of tightfisted fiscal god. You can’t have it both ways by criticizing the City of Ocala for this sort of thing and ignoring the contract Harris negotiated, which I’m sure he thought was the best he could do given competitive pressures in attracting qualified people.
A question that arises is whether the disparity apparent between the case for forcing Nugent out made by three city council members and Nugent’s written performance evaluations amounts to negligence on the part of some city council members in their duty to evaluate the performance of the city manager. It would be interesting to know whether the city council members individually prepare ratings for the performance of the city manager and, if so, what those look like for the three city council members who forced Nugent out. I’m keeping an open mind pending receipt of more data.
I have listened to the entire three and one-half hour November 28 city council work session at which Nugent’s performance was discussed. Ruse, an attorney who at one point refers to himself as the ringleader, brought in what amounted to a bill of indictment of the quality of Ocala government as operated by Nugent, who twice referred in the meeting to what Ruse was doing as a Spainish Inquisition he had not expected. Ruse retorted that he had told Nugent what to expect during a conversation on the previous Tuesday. Ruse does state that he raised some of the concerns he was raising in the November 28 meeting a year ago with Nugent.
When Rich points to the positive nature of Nugent’s written performance evaluations, Guinn argues for the lack of relevance of the questions on the written performance evaluations to the issues being discussed. Perhaps the best evidence of this is that I cannot recall at any point in the meeting any of the three who forced Nugent out referring to any written rating of Nugent’s job performance as a basis for forcing him out.
Does anybody know what "the new direction " is that city council wants to take ? At least the aren't referring to "the way forward " or maybe they are and I haven't heard of it ?
Sounds mysterious to me.
Meantime lawnkeepers are making the news. Romney fires one, Ocala hires a PI who poses as a lawnkeeper to serve papers on Guzman.
Remember him ? He was going to do marvelous things downtown Ocala.
The same council that is taking a"new direction" fell for Guzman, hook line and sinker. What could possibly top that for a "new direction" ?
Clayton Ellsworth
The troubled state fund for local governments opened at 7:30 this morning and was hit with 1.2 billion in withdrawals and only 7 million in deposits. Not a very strong vote of confidence from the funds investors.
Locally, I was not able to get the amounts withdrawn. Maximum withdrawals could only be 15% or $2million, whichever greater, from the "A" fund which is 84% of the total fund.
We will see what results tomorrow brings.
Clayton Ellsworth
Voice of Reason says . . . .
Yesterday I was in despair for the City of Ocala and Marion County. However, I have hope today as a result of the actions and comments of Council Members Ruse, Kay and Owen. These guys understand what accountability and good government is all about. I read today that Kay understands that Ocala needs to get over a threshold. That threshold is the condition of inertia caused by inept and ingrown government Barhill's Barfline Bureaucrats. This class of bureaucrat can be seen feeding at the Barnhill's buffet line and at the public payroll trough.
They get up in the morning with a big title and a big salary and no real responsibility. They spend the first hour of work BS-ing around the water cooler. Usually they know a bunch of completely worthless facts about the Gators or some other college football team. The next two hours are spent on the phone asking other government workers if lunch will be at Barnhill's, Sonny's, Picadilly's or E.L. Foster's hotel slop-line. Then it is lunchtime. Usually lunch goes without a hitch unless a City Commissioner is eating also. If that is the case, the bureaucrat has to cut-off the lunch at one and a half hours instead of the usual two. Back at the office, its time to field the daily call from Mary Sue Rich asking to give "a good second look" at one of her friends for a government job or contract. Next, its time to gather the entire City of Ocala staff for another picture in front of a new building, purchased painted horse or "public service award." After pictures it time to cut-out for the daily doctor's appointment. With the great municipal medical plan, its really cheap to get out and warm a seat in a doctor's office while waiting for a carpel tunnel syndrome exam. After the doctor visit, five o'clock isn't that far off and its time to start thinking about wrapping-up the hard day at work. At about 4:50 a good bureaucrat asks his or her assistant to make a few photocopies of a meaningless report so that there is evidence of some "work" done that day. A few more wise words about Urban Meyer's jock color at the water fountain and its time to head for the parking lot. During the drive home, thoughts turn to asking for a raise.
VoR
We discovered a good post from one of the Star-Banner blogs that puts an interesting perspective on the news coverage of the Paul Nugent “forced resignation”. What do you think about this blogger's point of view?
“It's great that the Star-Banner has come out in support of Paul Nugent, but unfortunately it's too little too late. As Marion County's primary news organization, it is your responsibility to stay on top of things like the meeting last Wednesday. Where were your reporters when this was happening? It was a publicly advertised meeting. I suspect that if the media had been at that workshop, those sniveling wimps wouldn't have had the guts to say the things they said. It's well known around town that the paper was tipped off about the outcome of the meeting on Thursday and yet the first story did not appear in print until Tuesday morning, just hours before the council meeting. Now that we have seen this council at its finest, the Star-Banner owes the citizens of Marion County aggressive coverage of these people. That means assigning your most experienced reporter to the city beat. It means going beyond simply showing up at meetings and writing down what they say. It means digging to see what other motivations they have for their actions. It means carefully studying their financial disclosure forms and all the other public documents they are required to file. It means never allowing them to get away with this kind of action again. If you have a media monopoly, you owe the public your best effort.”
if voice is going to jump mary rishs bones bout some friend maybe he outta check and see how many city and county contractors have done business with city and county officials, like how many sortof maybe had to buy their signs from amsden, had to get their landscaping from kesselring, had to have their contracting by ergle, and now how many buy from peyton's byelo parts company he and jimmy walton own. if you gonna jump on mary sue, let's go after all the fat boys too. star blunder aint had the guts to rite about it for years.
The Star Banner blogger is correct.
Real "news hounds" love a good story, they always want to be first.
I have yet to see this trait at the Star Banner.
The wimpy coverage that we see seems to be guided by advertising revenues, community self interests, as well as a fear of their job security.
Today's announcement by the Star Banner, that they are discontinuig printing of their community papers is a real 'tell".
The Star Banner , like any other news paper, is losing advertisers which is the lifeblood of any paper.
Obviously, cost cutting is in effect, which has a toll on morale. Nobody is going to stick there neck out very far and poke around.
In the past, journalism at local levels, like Ocala, has been a poorly paid profession It took dedicated professionals willing to do without the perks and pay that so many other professions have had.
"Cut and Paste " journalism has also taken it's toll. There is only so much space for local news. The news services cost a lot of money. So, it is the editor's job, to strike a balance between the news service and their own journalists, in the limited space that ad revenues dictate.
Add up what I have mentioned above, and no doubt more, you can justifiably conclude, that it is a tough time for The Star Banner.
In spite of this, they should be striving for better local coverage.
Clayton Ellsworth
Clayton, I wonder if you attribute any connection to the apparent sudden downturn in the state's investment fund and the fact that for the first time in at least one and maybe two decades, the state's chief financial person is a Democrat instead of a Republican?
As an old campaign flack, can't you just see the next campaign brewing.
Alex Sink's bond fund
sunk Florida counties!
Just a thought.
--pwf
PWF:
Surely you jest.
Sink inherited the mess from Gallager, whose mind was on his St. Joe stock and piously running for governor.
I do think the issue could become a local one, what with blogging and a Democrat with a CPA or similar background, provided one could be found.
There is a heck of a story in the local connections to this saga.
Taylor,Bean, Whitacre / Ocala Funding LLC has SFMB securitys in the troubled fund, which were downgraded by Standard and Poor to BBB from AAA. Source : Standard and Poor.
Any body that receives Standard and Poor ratings changes, and reads them, knew of this mid November.
Also two other words, Countrywide Financial were part of the portfolio which any local government money manager has access to. These two words should have scared the he-- out of any knowledgeable money manager.
Of course, I know, you were kidding.
Clayton Ellsworth
Mr. E---The Star Banner has missed another opportunity for LOCAL coverage of the investment fund story. An editorial saying everything is fine based on a conversation with the guy involved in placing county money in the fund is not a very balanced approach. I seriously doubt the Banner has any reporters, business or otherwise, who know a derivative from a hedge fund or even understand a balance sheet. Don’t expect much coverage on the subject. But when a Finance Manager gets fired over what you are discussing it will most likely get front page coverage. That’s the way it works.
I wonder, Clayton, if you think pwf’s focus on Alex Sink, a Democrat who took office only one year ago, has anything to do with pwf being a Republican. His comment ignores the fact that the State Board of Administration (SBA), which offers the local government investment pool at issue, has a board of trustees consisting of Florida’s governor, chief financial officer, and attorney general, meaning it is currently Republican-controlled and has been for years. This apparently means that the employment of Coleman Stipanovich, who resigned as SBA executive director in the midst of the current crisis after serving in that position for seven years, was in the position because a Republican-controlled board of trustees had him in the position. Additionally, pwf ignores that fact that many of the local government officials in Florida who chose to invest in the SBA’s local government investment pool are Republicans.
Pwf’s is a misleading attempt to put a partisan twist on a problem for which both Republicans and Democrats are responsible. This means, of course, that he is right that it will show up in some future political advertising.
Clayton, How could I jest?
Is it not true that she is a Democrat?
Is it not true that the fund was in good shape when she was elected last November?
If the fund was in bad shape during the campaign, surely as a banker experienced in such matters, she would have have known about it and would have said something about it.
And if there was a problem before now, wouldn't alert finance people across the state have caught it???
It looks like a failure of a office holder to me who happens to be a Democrat, and as I said, a good campaign in the making. --pwf
Perhaps if pwf takes a look at the organizational chart for the State Board of Administration it will assist him in getting over this fixation with Alex Sink. It’s at
http://www.sbafla.com/about_orgchart.aspx.
It clearly shows that the executive director, who oversees investments for the State Board of Administration including the local government investment pool, is responsible to the board of trustees. Under the Florida Constitution, the board of trustees consists of the governor as chair and the chief financial officer and the attorney general.
What, another Republican Hoax ??
No, I am not referring to Iran, nukes and World War Three.
With a lot of fanfare, President Bush and Secretary Of The Treasury, announced, what is being dubbed, "The Teaser Freezer", suggesting that this half assed plan might help 11/2 million americans with their mortage problems. Or was it 21/2 million beleaguered americans?
When you filter through all the ifs and buts of the rheteric, Experts, Larry Kudlow of CNBC, who served under Ronald Reagon and Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary under Bill Clinton and frequent CNBC contributer; said today, that fewer than 20,000 homerowners will survive the winowing process.
These people will have convinced HUD screeners that although they can make house payments now, they won't be able to handle the ARM resets.
Never mind that they are paying off student loans, two new SUV's, a motor home, new boat, and a home theater on 120,000 a year income. Make no doubt about it, this kind of financial stupidity and a negative net worth, will be rewarded. Plain and simple.
Those who were schnucked by realtors and lenders, who signed ARM's without full knowledge of the perils of resets, and there were millions who had the wool pulled over their eyes, will get NADA.
If you have missed only one payment,for any reason, forget it.
Oh by the way, the lender does not have to help, as they have not been mandated to do so.
More than a few lenders are going to sit on the sidelines because of stockholder pressures.
All the spin sounded good didnt it ?
A cruel hoax, indeed.
Clayton Ellsworth
Brian,
I think PWF was pulling my leg.
I am not sure if he meant political flack or hack. In either case, I plead guilty.
It is hard to keep old war horses down sometimes.
God forbid, if somebody came up with a really formidable well funded Democratic candidate for Clerk Of Courts and my wife unleashed me [doubtful at this time, she recently found out I was using my name on this blog and I have just finished 10 days of bread and water [with scotch], I would clober the incumbent.
The 14 million plus that I have said the county will take a big hit on will probaly be a total loss because nobody will buy the state's 14% garbage securities at any price. This is and will be a big albatros around the Clerk's neck .
Let the chips fall where they may, with a little help.
Clayton Ellsworth
1:13 PM
Dang! Sounds like a scheme dreamed up by a bunch of Democrats. Bush is continuing to lose his mind.
No bailouts for anyone. How about a little personal responsibility.
Blogmaster, obviously a lot of rambling subjects on people’s minds. A few responses to past posts.
Brian, although you are still obsessed with Randy Harris, he was Chairman of the BCC when Howard was hired. He did not let the new County Administrator get hired at the top of the advertised salary but a few thousand under the top. He was not given 6 months severance but three month’s severance. This is all in the public record. I thought you did better research than that. Remember though as a retired major general he was obviously knocking down a handsome sum already. Security was probably not Pat’s first worry and still isn’t. He’s set whenever he leaves. Maybe he’ll open up a Public Library book review service so you two can keep in touch!
As to the severe indignation of several bleeding hearts to Paul Nugent’s forced resignation, a few comments. The biggest outcry came from people who had cultivated or paid for deep access to City Hall and were obviously afraid of having to work to gain new influence with someone as yet unknown. Or they were folks who still live in the past when Ocala was king and the county something a whole lot less. That is not the case now and the EL Fosters and Kent Guinns of the world can’t believe that their era has past and the tail no longer wags the dog. (God it must hurt the old timers to see their beloved city’s influence slowly going the way of the Roman Empire) Paul came from that era and couldn’t get over the fact that a majority of his bosses wanted a new direction. That’s fine, he’ll collect his $144,000 a year until January 2009, yes 2009, and then leave with a check for six months of accrued sick and vacation leave, after which he’ll start collecting his 25 year large government funded pension. By the way 11:26Pm Voice of Reason you must be a city insider because I am certain quite a bit of what you reported occurs and sadly at the County too.
Paul was a nice guy but I’ll bet nice guy wasn’t in his job description. Nice guy has nothing to do with it! People are already commenting on what a nice guy Pat Howard is too!
If someone does the research they will find that Paul’s City Manager job description requires him to suggest solutions to problems and propose policies and implements the Board direction. The biggest task for any City or County Administrator is to implement the elected officials’ policies and take their direction. Paul heard the concerns of at least three City Council members on this point for at least one year. They did not publicly berate him during his review because a black mark on his record would not help him find future employment. Paul’s security was pre-negotiated in the form of an at will employment contract. For you folks that want government to run more like the private sector, there you have it in Administrator or Manager contracts.
As to investments in the State pool the County pulled the majority of the taxpayer’s money out just before the hammer fell. The School Board was, as usual, asleep at the switch. I think the City missed the boat too.
As to the comment on Gallagher being in charge before Sink I only wish he was our current Governor and not Charlie Christ. Charlie will end up giving away so much in an eventually failed attempt to keep his popularity from dropping further. His reckless spending habits will ultimately cost the state more than the losses in the “parking fund” for local government’s short term investments.
Who will they get to replace Paul Nugent? They should move quickly because they can't leave Paul in charge for much longer. They better go with someone from outside the City, maybe someone that can work better with the county.
I stand corrected on the length of severance in the county administrator employment contract negotiated by then county commission chairman Randy Harris in 2002. The paper copy of this 2002 contract that I obtained in 2004 is in storage. As I indicated in my earlier post, I was working from my best recollection of a document reviewed years earlier. I included this qualification to indicate I was pretty sure but less than certain.
After thinking more about why I requested a copy of the contract in 2004, I recalled faxing it to someone from my computer in 2004 and so have now retrieved an electronic copy made at that time.
Yes, seeing the image of the executed contract right now, in the event of termination of employment by the employer before expiration of any term of employment, the employee receives severance pay equal to three months base salary, the employee is compensated for any earned but unused leave time, and the employer continues for six months beyond the termination date all insurance policies such as medical and life in effect on the date of termination.
The employee forfeits these severance benefits in the event the employee is found to have committed malfeasance in office, is convicted of a felony, or is convicted of a crime of moral turpitude.
Does it really matter which political party Alex Sink belongs to? She is the chief financial officer for the State, one of the highest ranking State officials. If I was one of the two other members of the investment board of trustees, I would certainly defer to her financial experience concerning the investment fund. After all, that is why she was elected. She may be one of three members, but she is the most important of the three. Looks to me like she was a dead head on understanding the risk of the investments in the fund and late to react. Republican or Democrat, I question her lack of action and that of others who work for her. In the end the buck stops with her.
Yes, and Mrs. Bill McBride (failed candidate for governor in 2002), oh I'm sorry Alex Sink has to stand for re-election. If folks lose money don't vote for her!
Nugent and Howard are just hired guns--we should not shed any tears for them. They are both much better protected than any other government employees who work for them. Neither are going to miss any meals or lose health care coverage.
Completely aside from my personal information and for the general information of those on this blog who apparently think you can exclude a person as owning property in their name by consulting the website of the Marion County Property Appraiser, you should know that several years ago the Star-Banner reported that the appraiser was offering individuals the option of having their property records blocked from internet access. The appraiser’s office confirmed for me by telephone recently that they still do this. I know a residential appraiser who has to contend with this shortcoming the data offered on the appraiser’s website.
In addition, as I’m sure most people are aware but apparently some bloggers are not, there are ways to own property other than in your personal name. It is well known, for instance, that there are silent investors in development at the Fairgrounds whose identities are not discoverable by searching public records, just as the identities of many investors in entities owning property in Marion County are not discoverable through examination of public records.
7:37pm Brian,
I'd love to hear of any research you've done, or could do, on silent Fairgrounds owners! Could it be that a former office holder could have been involved in something secretive or worse?
From what I've read on this blogsite it sounds like the County administrator Howard sounds alot like Paul Nugent from the city. Is there a Howard watch now or is he already on his way out?
Replacements for Nugent:
1. Best bet, an outsider with no attachments to Ocala or the current system.
2. A key manager from the County staff who lives in the City
3. A former City and County staffer who is in the private sector right now.
No. 2 sounds a lot like County Administrator Pat Howard’s Parks Director and Community Resources Bureau Chief, Lee Niblock. I’m sure Niblock could use a big pay increase, but I doubt very much that our city council in Ocala is stupid enough to hire as city manager a Howard sychophant who has spent years angling to become county administrator, thereby enabling him to use the position of Ocala city manager to further his county administrator ambitions while he supposedly looks out for Ocala in dealing with the county. Talk about a conflict of interest.
Against the recommendation of the professional responsible for advising the county on library matters, Niblock recommended, in writing, removing our volunteer citizens from any policymaking role, advisory or otherwise. I have his memo before me right now. Niblock is part of the problem with how the county has handled the library under Randy Harris and Pat Howard. If the city council wanted to import this controversy into its city manager search, short listing Niblock would be a good way to do it. Last I checked, the city council members had not all been lobotomized, so I’m betting this will not happen.
No. 3 sounds like Janet Tutt. TO THE BEST OF MY RECOLLECTION, Tutt was part of the proposed triumvirate -- nicknamed in media coverage a “Dream Team” -- of Paul Nugent, Janet Tutt, and Oel Wingo, all three of which had worked as senior staffers together under city manager Scotty Andrews, who probably would have been disfavored as city manager by city council members Ruse, Owen, and Kay more than Nugent (not one of them was on the city council when Scotty was city manager). As Guinn said in the November 28 meeting of Scotty as city manager: Scotty would fight you. The “Dream Team” was proposed by the “Dream Team” during the search that eventually resulted in outsider Susan Miller being hired as city manager. Tutt will be perceived as too much of the Ocala government culture that at least three city council members say they are out to change.
Given what I heard on the three and one-half hours of audio on the city council’s November 28 work session, I’m betting it will be No. 1. As Mary Rich reminded the other council members, the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. To accomplish what they’ve put in motion, getting grass from a pasture inside Marion County won’t seem exotic and creative enough. You know the definition of an expert: an ordinary person from out of town. No. 2 and No. 3 aren’t out of town enough to become vessels into which all our hopes of transforming Ocala city government into General Electric can be poured. By the way, are they planning to pay GE wages?
Creekbaums still pissed that Niblock sliced off his only point of influence in library system, just like he stripped Ferguson from his influence in parks by killing PELAAC and coming back with PRAC. And judgin from success of his departments, looks like he was on money. Givhim hell, but hes the best Howard has, and funny, it was the old PELAAC and adm that found him. Why? he knows how to get things done and how to keep his bosses happy, something city hall department heads aint learned and dont care about. Of course, keeping Ruse and Owen happy isn't likely to happen anyway
If Creekbaum doesn't like Niblock, then that makes him a pretty good choice to replace Nugent. Joking aside, I hear from many people that Niblock is a get it done type of guy and would probably make a fine City Manager. However, doubt he would step into the mine field of city government. He's too smart for that when a bigger job may not be too far away.
Does Creekbaum ever offer anything on the blog other than character assassination and his smart ass comments about people? Sounds like a guy with a real problem.
1:26 AM....#2 is not Lee Niblock. You are not as smart as you think you are. Missed that one by a mile.
Brian you mentioned you had Pat Howard’s contract; when does his contract end? Regardless, if Stone and McClain want to be re-elected it’s doubtful that Pat will last much longer.
11:32PM I believe you have accurately provided objective considerations. In the open market public administrators will discover Paul’s removal and only those jobless administrators will likely apply which and we don’t need some else’s desperate reject. Number 1 will not happen easily.
Number 2 could be Niblock, he’s certainly well-qualified but probably not looking to step into the city’s current mess and as has been offered previously better things are certainly a possibility for him. I don’t think anybody from the county will move over to the city.
Number three would not happen if the blogger is referring to Janet Tutt. A fairly decent person that unfortunately could not function under Pat Howard, couldn’t figure out how to work with the Bureau Chiefs and left. If Paul Nugent couldn’t perform as expected Janet would be nothing more than Paul Nugent extra lite. The old timers may offer her up but a majority of the council will not bite. Ocala would be worse than ever under her.
From what I hear 6:31am is exactly on target. Niblock did make the recommendation to disband the much politicized Library Advisory Board and place more importance on the tax exempt status, Friends of the Library groups. Brian I researched the agenda item on this. What Brian failed to see, because of his historic myopia on issues, is that by eliminating the library advisory board Niblock succeeded in removing a big Randy Harris campaign issue forum. A former advisory board member told me that Eddie McCausland, Pat Strait and Brian Creepybalm used the advisory board meetings to try and bully staff and other board members into running the library their way. Heck, by diffusing those bozos Niblock should get the Nobel Peace prize, not just City Manager. Ask library staff but I’ll bet they’re tickled to death not to have to deal with the Advisory Board meetings!
As to the elimination of PELAAC Niblock did offer up a replacement advisory group which the Commissioners approved. PELAAC like the advisory board had also become politicized and was nothing more than a dysfunctional soap box. Even the Star Banner says the new parks advisory board works extremely well and Brad Rogers can’t stand the Chair, Stan Hanson. I’ll bet Ferguson likes the new advisory board better too because he seems to be a run government better sort of individual.
Thanks. Now I know Creekbaum's problem--historic myopia.
9:30 am -- you got it right about the library and parks.
The library does run better without the citizens board, all the politics, and there has been almost no controversary since the change.
PRAC operates better than the PELAAC Board, and what was accomplished in the previous three or four years has led to a better run parks operation. And I am very happy not to be involved.
Parks was a disaster, the county commission listened and made some difinitive chnages, Niblock came, PRAC came, I left and everybody is happy.
And I am delighted (far from being pissed) not to be as involved.
As for Janet Tutt, I would guess Janet is very, very happy not to have city hall or county adm politics to worry about. She devoted more than 20 years of her life, is vested in the state pension system and now makes a handsome salary in private enterprise without some of the crap the public employees have to take.
You are wrong about her not being bale to make the Bureau Chiewf system work. She left because her ctredibility was cut in half when the county adm hired Joe St. Pierre back after Janet was the one who approved his firing in teh Don greene dirt episode. She had a great offer, so she took it and has been most happy. Her replacement at county adm, well, I will bet Janet would have seen the road tax passed had she been in charge of that little issue.
--pwf
I would like to hear more about the golf tournament with the City Council and those strippers.
1st.
Paul's deal is to finish in July, then collect his unused sick leave and vacation, probably til Jan 09. (This is generally accepted policy) He wants to stay near Ocala for his relationship with his son. I expect he needs this amount of time to look for openings in Daytona, Lakeland, Leesburg, Flagler, situated places.
2. No one is one the inside track for his job. A headhunter team will be hired to solicite and present applications. The favorite idea seems to be an outsider, beancounter, focused on efficiency.
pwf 2:59 pm; Your comments on most of the subjects are similar to what I have heard. However, Janet Tutt was already looking to leave and was able to cultivate the offer she received at the Villages. It is widely known in County circles that she had no influence or actual authority over the Bureau Chiefs and little influence over Pat Howard. Many believe he was suspicious of her because he got the job over her on a 3:2 vote. Many county sources have related to me that at least two of the Bureau Chiefs openly attacked her or worked to undermine her and she was unable to get any support from Howard. It is also widely known that Harris picked Jo St. Pierre even though the Bureau Chief, Thacker wanted someone else. Howard, being afraid of Harris, allowed the selection to go through and Payton took him to task publicly at a Board meeting. Regardless of what face saving story you heard from Janet she was looking to leave because she was rendered ineffective in the county. Brad Rogers wrote an editorial after meeting with Janet. You should re-read it. Janet engaged in a little bridge burning on her departure and I really don’t blame her. She is better off for having left and I’m happy for her. She ain’t coming back to Marion County or the city!
As to her replacement Gisela Salas, a loser from day one and overpaid for doing absolutely nothing. Many, many county employees have told me that. Look for her to weasel into the REC and run against Dee Brown. This Republican will be voting Democratic in that race. Salas in currently advising Ray Strickland in a vindictive move to get back at Charlie Stone for recommending the elimination of her position. In that case the Commissioners voted to get rid of her position because Howard refused to fire her. Look for Ray to lose too if he follows any of her South Florida voting advice.
Paul Nugent is going to land on his feet just fine. That is IF, big if, the Star Banner leaves well enough alone and doesn’t screw up his employment opportunities by continuing to rehash and sensationalize what has happened.
Aon at 9:29 . . .
I don't disagree with much you say, especially that a couple of bureau chiefs tried to submarine anything Janet tried to do, but she aws more valuable to Howard than you suggest and he has suffered in not having anyone to do the heavy listing for him since she left. Example, he lost the road tax issue big time.
Janet liked public service and while she had looked around really didn't want to leave but when Howard hired St. Pierre back that was her final insult and she took the offer on the table from the Villages, and she aint coming back.
Speaking of the guy running against Stone, I see where he has discovered that the city and county are looking to building a parking garage --like the discussion is something new. I dont know where he has been, but this discussion has been on going for about 12-15 or more years, and now thata there may be a demand sufficient to warrant a joint effort on the north side of the boulevard, it may be a reality. But it is not anything new and certainly not something that a candidate for county ocmmission has anything to do with.
Maybe he got advise from Salas to write such a silly letter to the editor. --pwf
CONGRATS TIM TEBOW!!!
GO GATORS!!
Voice of Reason says . . . .
The perfect replacement for Nugent has arrived right before our eyes: gator 4 life.
In the midst of the worthless discussions about civic responsibility, efficient use of resources, and trying to make Ocala and Marion County a place where its citizens can flourish, gator 4 life shows he can hold his/her own around the water cooler. As history has shown,that skill is necessary for and government bureaucrat applicant.
From what I understand though, the City will hire a national headhunter for Nugent's replacement. So I think that gator 4 life should give the City more reasons to hire him/her. Gator 4 life should tell us Tebow's jock color and size, what his favorite food is, and who his favorite actor is. Also, knowing how many times a day Tebow scratches his butt would show superior water cooler BS skills. If gator 4 life is having trouble finding the answers to these questions, they can be found in any Teen Beat, Tiger Beat or Teen Star magazine.
VoR
City Mangers, County Managers, etc. come and go. What happened to Nugent and maybe will happen to P. Howard are just occupational hazzards. I don't pay much attention to these folks leaving. Life in city/county government will go right on--and could be better without them. So how about moving on to more important issues.
The “Weekly Commentary” (week of 12/7) from noted economist Jeremy Siegel says:
“I predict that the Fed (Federal Reserve) will move 25 bps. One could reasonably argue that a 50 bp decrease is justified, but the hawkish position of the bank presidents on the FOMC will prevent that outcome. In fact there will probably be at least one dissent even for a 25 bp drop in the rates. Overall, these data today are comforting to the markets and, along with the decrease in the jobless claims last week, means that the economy is clearly not falling off a cliff despite the constant media blitz on the housing collapse.”
Clayton Ellsworth: with all the discussion on the topic, what is your response to the last sentence of Siegel’s comment?
Ocala Realtor.
One month of better numbers, albeit, some revised, does not make a trend.
The economy has now become the major issue in Iowa. People are looking at their own personal circumstances, and are running scared everywhere.
There are many other Market and Economic observers who feel that the good numbers and timing of the release are suspect.
The CEO of Overstock .com said in an interview Friday on CNBC , that government numbers are a lie and that the economy was headed for very a very bad time .[crash was implied]
"Meltdown" is the operative word now. "It's not 1929, but the biggest mess since" says Washington Post Writer Steven Perlstein on Dec 7th; bringing up points I made in my previous posts about credit card debt being bundled like subprime and sliced into tranches then peddled, here and abroad ,with of course, no collateralization. He also talks about CDO's and the loss threat to Insurance companies.
Certainly, you are going to hear carefully orchestated good news BS from the administration and their supporters, who are doing their damndest to keep the dike from breaking and flooding the economy before election time next year, leaving the next President to deal with the impossible mess.
As far as jobless numbers are concerned "take them with a grain of salt" Erin Burnette on CNBC.
Closer to home, I have found another source for housing sales in Marion County that lists listings from MLS and non MLS brokers, Pulte etc. as well as online listings and "sold by buyer " listings.This website lists 10,870 Marion Co Single family dwellings and will be adding 458 more this week.Not a good omen for the local economy.
I have said in the past, that being a contrarion has no rewards, just public redicule.
Being right is being right regardless of your point of view. I have been right on housing, subprime, the economy to date. Problem is most of this has and is unfurling ahead of the time table I envisioned.
This is very unsettleing to me, because the rest of the story is going to be bloodier than either my wife or I had forecast.
The extent of the direness that we now see, we have decided not to reveal. Life is too short, we are busy making certain our financial house is in order.
"The problem of forecasting is the future" Mitt Romney - attributed to Yogi Berra.
How true, how true!!
Clayton Ellsworth
Clayton Ellsworth
Ocala Realtor :
A major ill that is going to beset the economy next year is stagflation .
The Bush Administration, always late to the party, has finally acknowledged that there will be a slowdown next year. This is one half of the equation of stagflation.
The other half is inflation. What person who buys grocerys, gasolene, health insurance, post office box rental, home insurance, property taxes,college tuition, school meals,auto insurance, health care costs, on and on , doesn't think there is inflation ?
BUT NOT OUR GOVERNMENT. Not to worry at all.
The most abused economic indicator for the last forty years is inflation. Why ? To keep cost of living allowances [colas] from swamping social security, government payrolls, other payrolls that depend on colas.
Markets in general have benefited from government inflation numbers.
Any of the above would have been adveresly affected had the true inflation numbers been known. This is the case now and why bogus numbers are still being used.
Real inflation plus economic slowdown = bad stagflation which will make the Carter years look tame.
Many of the same people who are bullish on the economy now did not see The Enron bubble, the tech bubble, housing bubble,and subprime bubble coming .
Why ? They did not want to see these obvious bubbles just as they don't want to see stagflation in the making,or a worse credit meltdown. They choose to ignore the nine trillion dollar federal deficit bubble.
Sure,are saying that new econmic measures of the decifit indicate nothing to worry about.There were new economic rationalizations for the tech bubble, housing bubble and fast and easy credit. Prime the pump, everybody is a winner.
A basic reality of economys is that they expand and they contract.This is as certain as death and taxes.
I have said it before , recession now or depression later.
The basics of economics are on my side. You can only tinker with them so long without reaping the whirlwind.
My recommendation. Don't bet against me.
Clayton Ellsworth
Just wonbdering:
"BELLEVIEW - Red and green monkey bars, a rocket and slides were just a few things children in Belleview said would make up their dream playground.
Dakota Carpenter wanted to see a pool, along with an excavation pit at the playground.
On Thursday, seven children participated in the design phase for a $100,000 interactive playground to be built at the city-operated Cherokee Park a few blocks west of U.S. 441.
KaBoom, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit group, in partnership with The Home Depot plans to install the playground Feb. 13. It's a part of KaBoom's plan to build 1,000 playgrounds around the country over a two-year period. Florida is home to 67 of those playgrounds, with another set to go up in Miami by year's end.
At Cherokee Park, the city of Belleview is contributing a matching grant of $10,000 for the playground and will assume maintenance of the equipment.
Wonder why the PRAC committee and Lee Niblock doesn't do something like this. I think the chairman of PRAC sometimes reads this blog. Maybe he can get this project strated for thr whole county not just Belleview. --pwf
pwf;
I made a call and learned quite a lot. The County Parks Department did apply for the KaBoom grant but did not get it. The grant program is generally for areas of great need. Belleview qualified, Marion County did not. However, it was later learned by the department that the playground is primarily wood and although it looks good at first it is very high maintenance and does not have a good life expectancy. In the long term "free" would cost the County more. This appears to be similar to the very atttractive Robert Leathers designed wood playgrounds. They were once very popular but most are being replaced with other equipment.
re:pwf 10:45pm Dec8;
You mentioned Howard and his use of his last two deputies. You seem to watch county government alot. Could you list what Howard has done in his five years in marion county?
PWF can give you his list of Howard's accomplishments, here is mine:
The lead story this morning on Market Watch [ Dow Jones ], By Rex Nutting says "Fed expected to lower interest rates despite raging inflation " later this week inflation numbers will be released indicating the "highest inflation rate in decades " although the fed will stubornly insist that core inflation is stable.
Stagflation here we come.
I neglected to attach my name to the post about raging inflation.
Clayton Ellsworth
Anonymous at 8:09
You forgot to list your accomplishments of Pat Howard. Please post it.
I didn't forget to post Howard's accomplishments. Here they are:
Can't you see them?
Our very own Bob Allen in Marion County well kind of. Well not really he is just a want a be politician, he was a write in for the county commission and was the head of a local Republican Club for young adults and is still involved according to their web site, he is one of the crazy bible thumping REC members that wishes he could be a county commissioner. I have from a very good source from inside a local policing agency that he was in a public bathroom with in the past week trying to engage in a little foot tapping solicitation of another male in the bathroom. This source is a close friend that is in charge of this undercover operation. I know that most of the people that are in the Republican circle know who I’m talking about he is still very involved. I don’t think anyone either Republican or Democrat wants a person like this involved if he clams to be one thing and then is doing something very different I find that repugnant and so should all people because if your gay just be gay don‘t hide it. I would like your opinions.
DOUBT HE IS THE ONLY ONE LIKE THAT ON THE REC. THAT GROUP IS FULL OF WIERDOS!
Maybe we all need to understand what makes fruit flys gay and then become straight. I bet there are some learnings there for humans as well.
www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,316316,00.html
V of R is going to have a field day when he sees these comments!
exposing liars out to have the gonads to expose himself if he is going to defame someone else without offering any proof other than someone told me that is anon who told someone who is anon who told someone who is anon. what a crock.
A change of topics for a second. Has anyone noticed an increase in the number of signs on homes for rent? I've even noticed signs on some new homes.
The homes for rent are a desperat attempt for owners to havesome cash flow to help pay the nut they have to crack.
Two problems :
1. They can't get enough rent to nearly cover their monthly out lay.
2. A renter has to be nuts to rent the property because the owner is in trouble and faces foreclosure eventually. At the time that preforeclosure takes place, a tenant becomes involved in "illegal occupency". The Star Banner wrote about that recently.
You are better off renting in apartments that are proven landlords.
Clayton Ellsworth
Dear PWF<
You missed the point of his letter to the editor!
Ray Strickland's letter to the editor was not about the parking garage, it was about listening to opposing parties, engaging discussion and coming to a conclusion or solution thas was in the best interest of all parties, (i.e. the people of Marion County).
Of course he knew a downtown-parking garage is a long-standing issue along with a couple of hundred things that have not been accomplished for the people of Marion County. The county commission could work the city council to facilitate the construction of a downtown-parking garage, so a candidate should be involved in any action that could be promoted by a commissioner.
If you knew Ray Strickland, you would know that he is a free thinker! Unlike some that currently occupy space and time on the BOCC, as puppets to special interests. He may listen to a lot of people, but I know from personal experience that he makes up his own mind and has the ability to accomplish what he sets out to do.
I didn't miss the point at all. The duscussions have been on going for lo these many years and the reason they have gone no where is the economics have not been there, which should make Mr. Strickland happy, since his philosophy has always in the past been so anti government and keep government the hell out of business, as expressed repeatedly at many meetings of the Chamber Local Goevrnment Committee.
Now that the economics are getting close to making a parking garage feasible, it may work. And if he was informed, he would be aware of the ongoing discussions between city and county make it work.
By the way, I have known him for quite a period of time. And, I still have a bit of a memory.
pwf
Don't be baited by Ray and Gisela posting campaign propaganda on this blogsite. You nailed him and they know it!
You were asked for 5 county admin accomplishments. Others have answered did you forget?
I'll take the small time oil guy over the small time insurance guy.
Also, hard to imagine that luxury Jaguar sitting in a Commissioner parking place!
That's nothing but how about a fancy Porsche sitting in the County Administrator's place?
You better look again. The County Admin. doesn't even get a reserved parking space. He's on first come first served just like the rest of the peons.
So the Porsche and the BMW both have to park next to the peons? The absurdity of it all! Life just isn't fair for the priviledged anymore.
Ray Strickland has no special interests. Give us a break!
What do you call being the fair haired boy of the Chamber of Commerce and the EDC? He will have to give paybacks to those groups and likely others. Maybe bailing out another E-1 or some other corporate welfare program.
In the recently published 25th Anniversary of Places Rated Almanac, which is refered to as "The Classic Guide For Finding Your Best Place To Live "; we find this information, among other things, about Ocala, which is one of the 379 metropolitan areas rated.
Regarding education , Ocala ranks 357 out of 379 .
Public school support D
Private school options C
Library popularity C+
College town D
College optins D
This almanac is available at the library, the author, David Savageau, and now is in it's seventh edition.
I have singled out this category because Ocala's future growth from younger family's, in a large part, depends on the quality of our education system.
Clayton Ellsworth
All this talk about Jaguars, Porches and BMWs. Sounds like there are some envious double-wide dwellars out there!
Clayton—Your comment about Ocala’s ranking as a place to live might indicate some of the “Ocala lifers” like Paul Nugent and others are leading us down the wrong path. Maybe people need some fresh outside views instead of those who just want everyone to be loved and likeable and don’t want anyone around who shakes the status quo.
I heard that Strickland's next car is going to be a Rolls Royce or Bentley, and that he is going to give away his entire county commission salary to charity.
This year so far import prices have risen 11.4 %, the biggest increase in the 25 years that this statistic has bben kept.
In November, the price jumped a whopping 2.7&, the most in 17 years.
But, not to worry, the Fed says inflation is under control.
Coming tomorrow is the Consumer Price Index which will show the raging inflation, Market Watch correspondant Rex Nutting has read about.
Clayton Ellsworth
In a November 27 posting by “Stan,” that was written as Stan Hanson in response to a posting in which I mentioned Stan Hanson, I was asked how I knew he supported Fred Thompson and was told by him that who he supported for president was none of my business. “Stan” is just one of the identities that Stan Hanson has admitted to me using on the Politically Homeless blog.
Given this November 27 “Stan” posting and Hanson’s history of trying to avoid responsibility for his activities, in a channel outside of this blog, I’ve given Hanson an opportunity to disown the posting, which he has not, so I’m treating it as his.
My answer to the question posed to me in the posting is the first three sentences of an e-mail Hanson sent me on June 26 of this year around the time that his personally owned state legislator, Larry Cretul, publicly endorsed Thompson:
“I don’t disagree with your point about the National political scene. The Republican Party had better get its act together. I’m going with Fred Thompson.”
I took this last sentence to be in the sense of political support, not in a homosexual sense, but if I’m wrong about that, Hanson can correct me and we can call Thomson’s wife with the news.
Now, here is something you will never see on the Politically Homeless blog: A posting verifiably coming from Stan Hanson denying the authenticity of this e-mail or the accuracy of this excerpt (or any of the other 250 plus individualized e-mails Hanson has sent me over the past seven years or so, an average of about one every eleven days). As Hanson has known for years, I retain all of my non-spam e-mail, including all of his. ALL of it.
Long after officially entering the presidential race, Thomspon lags in the polls, and I heard a report recently that his campaign is doing so poorly that they are considering taking federal matching funds. I haven’t heard of any change since June in Hanson’s support for Thompson, but I won’t be surprised if he and Cretul jump off the sinking Thompson ship.
Stan Hanson, would you like to publicly ask me how I know who you’ve supported locally while you’ve lived in Marion County or would you like to make any snotty remarks about how that is none of my business? Yeah, I didn’t think so.
Creekbaum: And your point?
Who gives a flying flip who Stan supports. I don't even know the guy.
However, I would be very worried about your personal interest in him if I were Stan.
ur fascination with somebody like hanson worries me, and makes me wonder what kindofa social security disability u qualify for.
and if he has sent you 250 emails that means both of you need more to do with ur time. what fool would ever send you 250 emails. my opinion of him diminmishes, cause he has better judgement than deal with you.
I agree with you anonm.
who the hell would ever write 250 of anything to a nutty like creekybaummy?
Hanson, why didn't you tell me you owned Cretul? I would have had you get me a better deala on my taxes.
You guys are gonna piss creekbaum off and he will get the cia after you.
First, the CIA is too busy burying tanks in Ocala National Forest to answer Creekbaum's calls.
Anyway who is this Creekbaum? And why is he so interested in two guys all the time, named Hanson and Harris? Who are they? Does he just like men with last names that begin with "H?" If so the City Manager or County Administrator named Howard better watch out! Creekbaum sounds like the type of fellow that taps his foot in public bathrooms?! Yikes! I hope this blogsite hasn't become a place for those creepy types to cruise. Wasn't there just a story about older cruisers types in the Star Banner?
Can't we get back to real issues?
I read the front page Star Banner article about the split in a local Episcopal Church with much interest.
The following paragraph of note: "Conservative Episcopalians believe the church is losing its biblical and traditional roots because of what they describe as a growing liberal leadership. The division between liberal and conservative Episcopalians centers on issues from Bible interpretation to accepting homosexuals. Most notably was the consecration of Gene Robinson, an openly gay man in a committed relationship, as the Bishop of New Hampshire in 2003. Blessings of same-sex unions in some Episcopal churches also have drawn much criticism in the Communion."
Looks to me like the local Episcopal Church is going through some of the very same issues as other religions and our political system.
GREAT NEWS!
Florida 4 Marriage, the statewide group working to put a gay marriage ban in the state Constitution, announced that it has collected the 611,009 signatures needed for the Nov. 2008ballot.
We're going to get to decide.
Lost our way,
The Star banner story was an excellent one.
The homosexual issue in the Episcopal Church is a canard.
The real issue is one of scripture. As a 40-plus year member of Grace Church, I am sadden that the national church is spiritually bankrupt.
The Bible I learned at my father's knee and at my grandfather's knee taught me that Jesus Christ is THE ONLY way to Salvation.
The modern Episcopal Church, including the current presiding bishop, believes that Jesus Christ is ONE of the ways to salvation.
I admit I am a sinner, and thankfully, Jesus Christ promises to forgive my sins, but works is not a way to salvation. Acceptance of Christ as your personal savior is the only way to salvation, and unfortunatelty, the Episcopal Church of the United States no longer believes that.
I know not who will leave Grace, only that I not be around much longer. Others may stay; that is their business and I judge them not.
But for me, I know in whom I have believed and am persuaded that He is able to keep that I have committed to Him against that day. --pwf
Get ready for a big surprise change of political plans by Andy Kesselring that will give Kurt Kelly a cakewalk in the 2008 election for State Rep.
that outta piss creekybaummy off even morewith bibble thumper kelly having a free ride. maybe kelly will introduce a bill outlawing bad books in library and get done what his buds harris and strait cudn't get done.
10:13 PM, You are correct. Kurt will be able to continue the great leadership he is already showing and will have two more years to add to his accomplishments to date. Bigger and better things are in store for Marion County from Tallahassee and Kurt will be an important player on our local Legislative team to assure that.
Onward and upward!
If you look at my original comment about Cretul and Thompson posted not long after Cretul’s support of Thompson became public and was in a “Larry Cretul” post on this blog, you will see the post said nothing about Stan Hanson. Within hours, though, a post personally negative towards me using Hanson’s self-admitted blog identity appeared on this blog.
For those who don’t know, Hanson, who is Cretul’s most ardent supporter in Marion County, managed Cretul’s 2002 campaign for state representative. He’s basically Cretul’s Karl Rove and John Lund all rolled into one. Hanson told me in 2002 that he “hated” Cretul’s opponent, Perry McGriff. When it comes to promoting the love of his political life, Larry Cretul, Hanson is one nasty little dude, as McGriff found out.
Clearly, I must be of great interest to the Cretul camp if their alpha dog has to come out to personally respond to me like he did when I first posted about Cretul’s support of Thompson in another thread. I wonder how much of this latest anonymous sliming was posted from Cretul legislative offices versus by unpaid supporters elsewhere in the Cretul camp. Either way, it doesn’t reflect well on Rep. Cretul.
Sorry, Stan, but no one the least bit sophisticated about local politics will believe your “stalker victim” act on this blog. Too many people around the county have figured out I’m quite well connected in the county, you don’t send 250 e-mails to your stalker, and I haven’t even publicly quantified the phone calls to my home from you over the years. And, really, posting about my supposed strange interest in your personal life when you e-mailed me about your brother just a few weeks back. I know where your house is? How many times have I been there at your invitation, anyway? Your posts are misleading to say the least. Some might say they are designed to cast me in a false light.
Stan, most literate people in the county have read the news coverage of your Munroe CEO search and seen how devious you are, something that I learned long before that, as you very well know. Give up on your latest attempt to fool the public. Your best option would have been to ignore my original comments on Cretul and Thompson, but you’ve already blown that.
I wonder if Kurt Kelly is going to propose a state law against school systems purchasing the often-challenged pro-gay material that went into school libraries in Marion County while he was a school board member. Perhaps such legislation would be a good jumping off point for a discussion of gay Republicans in Marion County and the “look the other way” attitudes of some of our local “socially conservative” politicians. Does anyone have statistics on how many gay candidates the Republican Executive Committee of Marion County has endorsed in the last ten years? Is it zero or more than zero? I haven’t seen that figure published in the Star-Banner yet. We need to get into this sort of thing, so get busy on that legislation, Kurt!
Amazing that no one has figured out the Nugent deal. Can you say "scapegoat" for the City Walk mess? Heaven forbid that blame is put where blame lies. Paul will be missed...If I were Paul, I would have let them fire me then sue their butts.
What makes you think that Kelly is going to get a free ride? I know - for certain - he will not be running unopposed in November.
again creekybaummy who gives a flying flip what you think about who ever the hell stan is. and what is this obcession with gays????
6:38am
Again you take the position that Paul can't be fired or forced out. He had a contract that allowed just what happened to occur. That's why he commanded an enormous salary with severence pay. Like the old phrase from a Beatles' song, "Paul is dead."
As to Brain with his enormous influence in County government, I don't know of anyone that can stand you let alone who would return your calls.
Our neighbor drives from Belleview to Ocala to attend Grace Church. She has given us much the same information as PWF about the Grace situation. She is also looking for a new Church but with much difficulty. The one here in Belleview is not to her liking either.
Mr. Creekbaum,
Excellent point about the books for the school systems. Legislation on that issue will be forthcoming during the 2009 session. All bill slots are filled for 2008, so must wait until 2009.
it doesnt take much sophistication to realize that creekbaummmy is a nut with too much time on his hand and no friends, natta, zip, zero, none. And maybe a better topic would be the number of crackpots the blogmaster allows to post on this blog. im tired of his rant.
As predicted, wholesale inflation takes the biggest monthly rise, 3.2%, in 34 years.
But don't worry, the fed says inflation is under control.
Clayton Ellsworth
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