Iowa Caucus Results: How Important?
Had breakfast this morning with some folks who are convinced the Iowa caucuses have defined the finalists for the 2008 Presidential Election. They feel a Mike Huckabee (R) and Barack Obama (D) matchup is inevitable. Even a few media outlets seem to be of that opinion.
What do you think? Do the Iowa caucuses mean anything to you and how you will vote in Florida on January 29?
posted by Blog Master @ 11:10 AM
66 Comments:
2008 will be the year of the Independent voter. The left and right will not determine the election, but the Independents will. I’d say that favors any Democrat candidate.
The Iowa Caucus and it's results have profoundly changed the dynamics of our political process, hopefully permanently.
Clayton Ellsworth
The Star-Banner recently ran a David Broder column on why New Hampshire tells you a lot more about where things are headed than Iowa, which has a caucus system that samples a much narrower slice of the electorate. His column made sense to me.
That having been said, I do find it interesting that Thompson entered the race supposedly as the next Ronald Reagan who was going to get votes from evangelicals who found the other candidates lacking, and then a bunch of evangelicals show up to caucus in Iowa and Thompson gets filleted by Huckabee and Romney.
I saw a recent poll that had Thompson at about 2 percent in New Hampshire. Get the coffin ready.
Huckabee will win it all unless the religious right wakes up and discovers that he is really a liberal.
Sadly perhaps the best candidate, Joe Biden, has had to drop out.
I'll be interested to see if he switches his support to B. Obama.
We can stick a fork in Hillary Clinton, she's done! Even the women are turning on her. I just love it. She deserves what she's getting. Obama and Edwards roll on.
I read a book over the holiday break, “Unstoppable” by Chris Zook. It has a quote that sums up my current take on all the candidates in the Presidential race except John McCain:
"If you don't agree on who you are or what makes you special, it is very difficult to figure out what you should become."
McCain is now on the top of my list. Mike Huckabee is a personable (Carter like) sort of fellow, but won’t fly well with many when the chips are down. I’ll try to include a connection to a good comparison of McCain and the Huckster:
www.newsmax.com/reagan/huckabee_mccain/2008/01/04/61736.html
I'll try to post the connection again:
www.newsmax.com/reagan/
huckabee_mccain/2008/01/04/61736.html
Clayton,
Why do you feel the Iowa results “have profoundly changed the dynamics of our political process”? I believe the Florida primaries will be a much better gauge of national voter sentiment. After a few more pretenders drop out following the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, voters will be left with clearer choices.
Frankly, I don’t think these early, small state primaries prove much. Perhaps better than some of my Paddock Mall surveys, but not much. By the way, Ron Paul is the current favorite of shoppers at the Mall.
One of the newspapers in your home state questions the presidential caucus process; the article makes sense to me. Here is what the Cleveland Plain Dealer (December 30, 2007) had to say on the subject:
“Here we have a presidential race with huge fields in both major parties, and with such long campaign periods both before and after the first primaries straining candidates' war chests to the point that most have to win early or bow out quickly.
Or more to the point, here we don't have it. Now, far be it from us ... to whine, but a couple of states whose importance lies in nothing more than dates on a calendar are poised to have a ridiculously outsized impact on the rest of the nation's presidential choices.
The numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Iowa Caucus Project 2008 and The Associated Press tell the tale eloquently:
- 175 million U.S. registered voters
- 850,836 registered voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, combined
Any way you look at it, the primary process is terribly skewed. Either we're asking too much of Iowa and New Hampshire, or we're conceding too much to them.”
Footnote: How many of the Iowa and New Hampshire voters actually participate? Not many.
Brian and Stan
The David Broder column was great because Iowa and their first political test in the country has tweaked the nose of the NE media elite. David was simply indignant that Iowa had such an impact. The vast media outlets (expensive as all get out) do not have a controlling function in Iowa. For underfunded and darkhorse candidates it is fortunately a whole lot cheaper to buy time in Iowa than the NE media markets. In Iowa you don't get invited to Manhattan socialites' penthouses to make your pitch but to everyday working class folks' living rooms. Truly grassroots stuff!
Quite frankly some state had to be first and Iowa has been it since 1972. They will likely always be first because the national parties control the process and they WILL NOT allow a change. The courts have settled that issue and look what happened to Florida and Michigan when they moved their primaries.
The Iowa caucus process is important not because it's in Iowa but that it is first, nothing more. However, that being said the Iowa process historically has a great track record of reducing the field to the eventual winner in most presidential races.
If you're a little too snobbish, like Mr. Broder, in accepting Iowa's significance remember Iowans didn't buy Hillary's crap. The Iowa BS detector was working just fine for her and the flipflopper Romney! To those two it sounds like two pieces of toast to go!
What do you think about the possibility of General Colin Powell being teamed as the Vice President with the Republican President candidate---- Giuliani, McCain, Romney?
Obama picks Edwards; McCain or possibly (a slim chance Rudy) picks Huckabee.
We will have a Democrat as president.
Tomorrow is the Wyoming Caucus for the Republican Party. I've seen no coverage of the event. Talk about the elite media. Guess those hick cowboys out west don't know anything about politics.
10:08 You are dreaming. No way Huckabee is chosen as anyones VP!
Stan thinks Florida is going to have a big impact. Here’s the latest Florida poll average from Real Clear Politics for the Republicans:
Guiliani 25.3
Huckabee 23.3Romney 19.0
McCain 11.0
Thompson 8.8
Paul 3.3
Thompson has been trending downward in Florida since October. Stan can call his bud Larry Cretul, the Florida co-chair of Veterans for Thompson, and tell him the hearse is on the way for Fred’s candidacy.
You can tell how much some people hate Hillary Clinton by their eagerness to make a big deal out of a pretty narrow spread between first and third in Iowa and an almost non-existent spread between her in third place and Edwards in second in Iowa.
It’s interesting, though, that one of the analysts tonight said that, compared to Iowa, there are a lot more voters in New Hampshire like the ones Obama did well with in Iowa. However, Clinton’s got a lot of money to stay in it through the big states, so I wouldn’t write her off yet.
Huckabee is a dream candidate … for the Democrats. Yeah, I know, that’s what was said about Reagan in 1980, but in this case it’s true.
Since 1972 when Iowa moved to the front of the line, three Democratic winners of the Iowa caucus have not won their party nomination:
1972 - Muskie
1988 - Gephardt
1992 – Harkin
Stan,
The following all contributed in Iowa to the very positive change in the dynamics of our political process
1. Person of color wins in a blow out, in a lily white ultra conservative state.
2. Young people go to Iowa to help Obama in droves not seen since Gene McCarthy ran during the Viet Nam war.
3. Young people swarm to the Democratic caucuses to vote for Obama almost doubling the democratic turnout over 2004.
4.Hucklebee beat up Romney badly, who out spent Hucklebee 20-1.
5.Both Romney and Clinton paid dearly for their phoney plastic campaigning and flip flopping.
6.Independants made the difference, as never before.
I agree that the current primary process has a lot of weaknesses.
To change the primary process, at this stage in the game,is going to be difficult, maybe impossible.
Clayton Ellsworth
Stan :
CHANGE- Both Obama and Hucklebee represented change in Iowa. A very powerful dynamic that ebbs and flows. Right now is high tide.
Clayton Ellsworth
Blogmaster: Do your friends usually engage in pre-breakfast drinking? Iowa caucuses mean nothing to me. If you want to depend on the votes of a few left wing liberals and right wing religious fruit cakes, then believe your breakfast friends.
Huckabee is not getting a vote on my ballot and neither would Obama if I were a Democrat. However, if you accept Mr. Creekbaum's history of the Democrat winners in Iowa, you would have to conclude that Obama is looking good as the nominee.
If you look at the history of Dems in Iowa, every 14-16 years the caucus winner there does not get the nomination. Is it nearing that time frame in 2008?
How about a McCain/Joe Lieberman Republican ticket? Now wouldn't that pucker up some butt holes in the Dem party?
This comment has been removed by the author.
In interpreting the list I posted, it looks like some folks may be overlooking the distinction between elections in which there is an incumbent Democrat and elections in which there is not. As I earlier posted, Muskie in 1972, Gephardt in 1988, and Harkin in 1992 are all cases of the Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus not winning the Democratic Party nomination for president. Note that in two of these three cases, the winner of the caucus was from Iowa or a neighboring state, and Obama is from a nearby state.
Don’t overlook that in 1980 (Carter) and 1996 (Clinton), the winner of the Iowa caucus won the party nomination, but that person was also the incumbent president. Obama is not.
Also, if it is a “blowout” when Obama beats Edwards by just 8 points, then what adjective is left to describe Harkin’s win by 72 points over the second place finisher in 1992?
Yes, Obama, got what is a large number of young people in terms of the Iowa caucus to participate, but does that mean that he can drive up turnout of young people in primary states where you don’t have the intense months long interest in the process like you have in Iowa? I have my doubts. Lots of predictions of young people changing things have not borne out in the past. You can talk to “President” Howard Dean about this, just to name one recent example. McCarthy did not win the party nomination in 1968. Humphrey, the vice president and establishment candidate won the Democratic nomination in 1968.
The numbers in the Iowa caucus are relatively puny, making it easier there to create the appearance of a seismic shift. I think it’s yet to be proven whether Obama can draw new participants to the process when the process becomes much more diffused through the country and the primaries come in rapid fire succession.
It will be interesting to see if the phenomenon has held up in a month. Maybe, but I think it’s far from clear right now.
Another factor that can’t be ignored in the Democrat Presidential race is the possible role of the super delegates in helping Hillary Clinton get the nomination.
The super delegates are the people automatically chosen as delegates to the party convention. They are the Democrat members of the House and Senate, Governors and other state political leaders, big-city mayors, and other traditional party members. Importantly, they are not bound by the results of any caucus or primary vote.
Many are long time party insiders and have the reported attitude that "It's Hillary's Time". Some of these super delegates will support other Democrats, but it's most likely stacked against others and for Clinton.
In a close nomination race, the good old boy/girl system may win out over the wishes of the voters. That’s why Clinton must win or finish close in all the primaries.
Happy New Year! Welcome to Politics 2008!
One of my elementary school teachers would probably be upset if I didn't correct my earlier post by noting that the word "blowout" is a noun, not an adjective.
A good website to help sort out the statements of the Presidential candidates on various issues:
www.ontheissues.org.
Just click on the candidate’s picture and it will summarize what they have said.
creekybaummy, ur elem school teachers didnt give a damn aoutyiou then and dont give a damn about you now. give it a rest.
Wyoming Republican Results (12 Delegates):
Mitt Romney 8
Fred Thompson 3
Duncan Hunter 1
For the person last night who was complaining about this non-event.
Stan and Brian :
For a much more eloquent and grammatically correct summary of the Iowa Caucus results than mine ,emphasizing many of the dynamics I have mentioned ; I suggest you read Frank Rich in this mornings New York Times.
nytimes.com right hand upper corner click on Frank Rich.
To trash the caucus process is old news. Just as predictable as it was that you would see a cub reporter in the orange groves, swadled in heavy clothing, eating oranges,talking to orchard owners, the morning of the hard freeze.
Having been at a rally for Robert Kennedy in Milwaukee just before he went to Los Angeles, my fear is that Barack Obama may be assasinated.
Clayton Ellsworth
Hillary's campaign is on life support. Better call Hiers-Baxley and have them make the final arrangements.
To: All Hillary Supporters (And You Too Mr. Creekbaum)
The best spot to get bumper stickers and other great materials to support Hillary on her way to the Presidency.
http://www.hillaryclintonstore.com/
Clayton,
Thanks for the links to the articles and for answering my question.
If you get a chance, take a look at Saturday’s (01/05/08) The Wall Street Journal. It has a very good article called “The GOP’s Time for Choosing”. While the article is aimed at the impact of the Presidential Election on the future of the Republican Party, it has some points that may apply to the Democrat Party as well. I’ll summarize a few of the key points in case you or other bloggers don’t have the time to read a rather long article:
1. Basically, the question raised by the candidacy of Mike Huckabee and the political leanings of those like him (e.g., former Senator Rick Santorum) is: Does the Republican Party want to become more like the Christian Democrat Party that exists primarily in Europe?
2. Christian Democrats are not liberals or socialists. Many see themselves as the “party of the political center”. I would describe it as “more God and more government”; not the secular religious nature of the European political system.
3. Christian Democracy is a significant challenge to the Reagan-era conservatism approach of “government is the problem”. Instead, failure to use government power for good is both immoral and unsuccessful under Christian Democrat principles.
4. A few (e.g., former White House speechwriter Michael Gerson) would even say that Reagan conservatives are immoral losers!
5. What is the success of the Christian Democrat political model? Every country which has been governed by Christian Democrat principles since WW II is poorer than the U.S., with substantially higher unemployment rates and slower economic growth. I won’t detail the many comparisons; the differences aren’t even close! Christian Democrat countries choose lower incomes and higher unemployment for their commitment to social welfare.
6. The debate for many years has been between the Democrat Party which essentially argues that America should be more like parts of Europe and a Reagan-influenced GOP which argues that America should be more like its historical self.
7. The Mike Huckabee campaign is an attempt to define a model slightly different than that in Europe—more government without being more secular or pacifist.
8. So this is the big debate/challenge within the GOP in this Election.
I have lived, worked, and traveled extensively throughout Europe. I’m not very enthralled with the government dependency of the citizens/workers in many of those countries. It could be why many of them are losing jobs to Asia, Latin America and yes even the U.S.!
Anyway, that’s the summary. Do you, or other bloggers, see any similarities to the philosophical debate that is going in the GOP with the differences of opinion among the candidates in the Democrat Presidential campaign?
Give me more God and less gov't. and I'll be happy.
Sounds like some folks out at Country Club of Ocala are worried Huckabee is coming for their money. Interesting that Rubio, who has been pushing tax cuts big time, endorsed Huckabee . Coverage of the endorsement emphasized Huckabee’s switch to a position on Cuba attractive to Cuban-Americans such as Rubio, but I find it hard to believe that Rubio would totally turn his back on his tax cut credentials by endorsing a guy he thinks will turn the United States into Europe.
I keep hearing, months after he officially entered the race, that Thompson doesn’t display on the campaign trail the drive necessary to become president. Could he be one of these lazy Europeans we’re reading about here? Maybe he’s French.
The Democrats are having a debate? About what issues? As I wrote on here quite some time back, they discarded moderate former governors Vilsack and Warner from their primary process long ago. What are former Democratic senators like Nunn and Boren doing? Meeting with independent Bloomberg because the Democrats don’t have room for them in their ideologically narrow presidential selection process.
Stan, I will read The Wall Street Journal tomorrow at our library.
Unless The Wall Street Journal has changed, it has a on line subscription fee that I don't want to pay.
The NY Times dropped their on line subscription fee and Murdock said he might with the Journal.We'll see
I see glimpses of the philisophical war going on in the GOP.
It seems that every candidate except Hucklebbee and Paul claims to be in the Ronald Reagan mold and can't say his name often enough. This stance is back firing as it seems to voters that it is of the past.
Voters of both partys are more concerned about issues and about the the future than they are about philosophical differences, left, right, center, more government, less government is rhetoric to them.
How am I going to make ends meet ?
How am I going to afford Health Insurance so my family can have adequate health care? How has our country gone so wrong ? are some of the questions that are looming every where, not just Iowa.
As far as I am concerned, I am more interested in who will be the best president.
This means I will put political philosophy aside and vote for John McCain if given a choice between Hillary and McCain.
In Iowa voters did not seem to be interested at all in political philosophy. Voters did their homework, voted and left philosophical discussion up to pundits, you and I.
Clayton Ellsworth
I've been told Creekbaum plays it loose with his facts to make things come out his way. Of course there is only one way—his. I think he may have done that with the polling results he put on here. The most recent Rasmussen Florida poll has a different picture than what Creekbaum tried to paint:
Huckabee 27%
Romney 23%
Giuliani 19%
Thompson 9%
McCain 6%
Paul 4%
Be wary of anything Creekbaum tells you on this blog. Remember that old saying: don’t put your faith in statistics until you have considered what they don’t say.
Better yet, Creekbaum uses his statistics and “facts” as a drunken man uses a lamppost—for support rather than illumination.
Trust not!!! His paint brush needs cleaning.
Huckabee is fine if you want a real religious version of Charlie Crist!
Clayton & Stan: I look forward to hearing more from you both on the subject Stan brought up. I’ll get the WSJ tomorrow too and give you my feedback. I think one problem we have is too many people who should be working and contributing to our economy/taxes who aren’t. If it ever approaches the levels of Europe, God help our welfare system!
More later.
Anyone out there see any of the news clips today of Clinton trying to bring down Obama. It was pitiful! This woman has the worst personality of any of the candidates from either party. I’d rank her right there with Fred Thompson as the most boring and pathetic example of a Presidential candidate I’ve ever seen in my 22 years of voting experience. I can’t vote for Obama but I’d count on a lot of people from New Hampshire who will.
On the Republican side, my friend Dennis Baxley may be correct in his support of Mitt Romney. Romney was absolutely excellent tonight.
The poll data I quoted above is from Real Clear Politics, a highly respected independent political website. It is an average of several polls, including the Rasmussen poll referred to above by some anonymous coward. I reported the average because I don’t have any reason to believe that one poll in the average is more valid than the average.
I probably should have noted that when I checked this website the latest data was based on mid-December polling. Clearly, things could have changed since mid-December but as I am writing that is still the latest data they are reporting.
Check out their Florida Republican poll numbers by going to “Polls” and then Florida Republicans at their website at http://www.realclearpolitics.com
Also, check out the endorsements of the website at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/about.html.
Beware of people who go on the internet to anonymously impugn the integrity of others without factual examples to back-up their assertions.
Ditto for me about Mitt Romney. He was the best of the lot.
Can't comment on Clinton news clips. I didn't see any. But I can't stand her anyway.
P.S. I can't access that Real Clear Politics website. Keeps telling me the page not available. Maybe something wrong with my computer connection. I'll try again tomorrow. I have never had this problem before.
Voice of Reason says . . .
My Democrat and Republican friends don't seem to jibe with the Iowa results.
For the Democrats, it seems that people like Richardson but he doesn't seem to be gaining traction. Most of the women Democrats tend towards Edwards. The guys favor Richardson. I have not heard anyone who likes Hillary although she is probably the Democrats best hope and will be a formidable candidate (not meritoriously). I'm not making this up but I have heard a lot of women extremely upset that Oprah is shoving Osama down their throats.
Interestingly, many Democrat women are saying that they like McCain. To me, that means that McCain could get many swing voters and Independents if he gets the nomination. Rudy might have the same effect.
I can say this, NO Democrats will vote for Romney, Huckabee, Thompson or Ron Paul. Similarly, no Republicans will vote for Hillary, Osama or Edwards. It just aint happenin'.
The winning ticket might be Guliani/McCain as I think someone suggested.
Didn't Dean win Iowa for the Democrats last time? Is that when he made that ridiculous scream? Or was that after a different primary. Anyway, Dean was all the rage early like Osama and fizzled quickly. I suspect Osama will do the same. He's no Alan Keyes or J.C.Watts. I would love to see one of those guys in serious contention. Maybe J.C. Watts will appear as V.P. Candidate.
As to Huckabee, I think that Iowa is not reality. He seems awfully fishy and I think that he will start to fade. He just seems like a real phoney to me and a lightweight.
VoR
I have trouble seeing full web addresses on this blog sometimes, but just type into your browser:
www.
Realclearpoltics.
com
Some comments about them from the site:
"RealClearPolitics is the first web site I check every morning. It's an invaluable tool for anybody interested in politics or public affairs." - David Brooks, The New York Times
"I check RealClearPolitics every day. It is the best collection of political commentary on the web." - Brit Hume, FOX News
"A site that makes a credible effort to do the impossible: to provide a comprehensive, real-time (and not just Beltway-based) overview of the entire American political conversation." - Howard Fineman, Newsweek
"RealClearPolitics is terrific. It's one of the first things I get to every morning. I don't know how I ever got along without RealClearPolitics.com." - Michael Barone, US News & World Report
"RealClearPolitics.com is my favorite political web site after OpinionJournal.com." - Paul Gigot, The Wall Street Journal
"Absolutely indispensable." - Peter Beinart, The New Republic
"RealClearPolitics is just terrific. I spend as much time on RCP as I do with the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and the Financial Times combined.” - Rich Karlgaard, Forbes
"Not a day goes by that I don't click on RealClearPolitics at least once, the presidential poll charts, graphs and moving averages are great. If RCP didn't already exist, somebody would have to invent it." - Charlie Cook, National Journal
"Never miss it - that's the second biggest compliment I'd give to RealClearPolitics.com. The first is that it has become indispensable to anyone, in or outside of journalism, who's interested in politics, policy, or world affairs." - Fred Barnes, The Weekly Standard
The Real Clear Politics site is a pretty good one if you are into reading polls. It is a poll of polls approach. For you finance/investor types, that’s like a mutual fund or hedge fund that provides a fund of funds. Only beef I have with the site is that it is too “cluttered”.
I haven’t put much stock in the local and state polls, but have mainly been watching the national polls. I’m not so sure current polling is all it’s cracked up to be. Everyone and their uncle is running a poll. Today's voters seem much more fickle and unpredictable than is demonstrated by the assumed preciseness of all these scientific polls.
Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Voice of Reason’s analysis of the opinions of his Democrat and Republican friends is just about as good an indicator of voter sentiment as all this polling.
Now I’m off to participate in a focus group!!
Message to Democrats :
If nominated, Obama is going to have long coat tails.
It is incumbant upon local Democrats to field a full slate of viable candidates who will run against the status quo.
My best campaigns have been run with the slogan "A new Broom Sweeps Clean " with ads that highlighted pictures of pot holes, parking meters that took tokens that didn't work etc.
I realize that this will be difficult because of the old tired and lethargic Democrat troops that can't fill a phone booth for a caucus.
Oh well, just a thought.
Clayton Ellsworth
Wishful thinking Clayton! Won't happen.
It’s standard operating procedure to say polls don’t mean much when you’re sucking wind as badly as Fred is.
Remember the Lazy like a Fox comment on here? More like dead like road kill. The guy has generated about as much excitement as a wax statue (many of which are more life-like than he is). You can listen to a 20 minute analysis of the presidential race without his name even coming up.
Is Fred even still in the race? Cretul announced his support of him on here, but we haven’t heard anything from Cretul about it since. Maybe the rumors are true that Fred is getting out and endorsing McCain.
8 weeks ago nobody even knew how to spell huckabee now he is some sort of saviour.
Remember, the dog that s*()$ fast doesnt s*()$ long!
Today's Wall Street Journal has an excellent opion piece on John McCain.
Among other things it mentions his popularity with Democrats as well as most the reasons this Democrat would vote for him if given a choice of Hillary Clinton.
Not mentioned by the writer was his Harry Truman likenesses.
Don't rule out "The Straight Talk Express.
Clayton Ellsworth
Stan,
How was the focus group today?
Was Frank Luntz as thorough as he appears to be on the Tv pieces we see?
Lots of good comments on this thread. -- pwf
There was a column today in the paper about swearing. I got an e-mail that I have not totally checked out, but did check two of the quotes and they match the sources and I don’t have time to look more. Ms. Clinton can potty mouth and as of today CRY with the best of them. She will make a great President.
WHAT A SWEET LADY, THAT HILLARY!
"Where is the G-damn f***ing flag I want the G-damn f***ing flag up every f***ing morning at f***ing sunrise." (From the book "Inside The White House" by Ronald Kessler, p. 244 - Hillary to the staff at the Arkansas Governor's mansion on Labor Day, 1991.)
"If you want to remain on this detail, get your f***ing ass over here and grab those bags!" (From the book "The First Partner" p. 259 - Hillary to a Secret Service Agent who was reluctant to carry her luggage because he wanted to keep his hands free in case of an incident.)
"Put this on the ground! I left my sunglasses in the limo. I need those sunglasses. We need to go back!" (From the book "Dereliction of Duty" p. 71-72 - Hillary to Marine One helicopter pilot to turn back while en route to Air Force One.)
"Come on Bill, put your dick up! You can't f**k her here!!" (From the book "Inside The White House" by Ronald Kessler, p. 243 - Hillary to Gov. Clinton when she spots him talking with an attractive female at an Arkansas political rally.)
"I am a fan of the social policies that you find in Europe." (From the book "I've Always Been A Yankee Fan" by Thomas D. Kuiper, p. 76 - Hillary in 1996.)
“You know, I'm going to start thanking the woman who cleans the restroom in the building I work in. I'm going to start thinking of her as a human being.” (From the book "The Case Against Hillary Clinton" by Peggy Noonan, p. 55.)
"We just can't trust the American people to make those types of choices. Government has to make those choices for people." (From the book "I've Always Been A Yankee Fan" by Thomas D. Kuiper, p. 20 - Hillary to Rep. Dennis Hasert in 1993 discussing her expensive, disastrous taxpayer-funded health care plan.)
The trouble with trying to compare Thompson to Huckabee is that Thompson had a bunch of media before he even got in the race officially and then got more when he got in and still couldn’t move up. He’s already had a Huckabee moment in the sun; I don’t think he’s going to get another one in this election.
As an NPA (no party affiliation), I was mightily disappointed in 2000 when the Republicans didn’t nominate McCain. I voted for Bush in the general election much less enthusiastically than I would have voted for McCain.
I’ve always felt that world affairs is a big part of the presidency, and McCain has much stronger credentials in this area than many. It’s a dangerous world; we can’t afford rookie mistakes. Obama is an inspiring speaker and and a charismatic and intelligent man, but there are limits to what a person can do to compensate for a lack of experience in world affairs.
Like a lot of people, I like McCain because he’s willing to stick by his principles for the what he sees as the good of the country even when it’s very painful politically for him.
Hey, if John McCain were a county commissioner, he would have voted Pat Strait off the library board in a millisecond instead of searching for his spine for several years to no avail like some of our local invertebrate Republicans.
creekybaumnmy, mccain damn sure wouldn't have wasted a minute of his time listening to all your pro porno pleas, and would have tossed you out of his office in no time.
Voice of Reason says . . .
McCain was really wrong on the unconstitutional campaign finance reform and illegal alien amnesty. But, Republicans might have to swallow their pride and nominate him anyway. The same with Rudy although his issue is abortion.
After all, Bush was completely on the wrong side of amnesty and the House and Senate were able to keep amnesty at bay. Likewise, bush punted on the campaign finance reform and, ostensibly, signed it "knowing that the Supreme Court would find it illegal." So, the country can still work even if the executive is completely wrong on those issues. By the way, McCain probably had the right intentions with finance reform but it is unconstitutional none the less.
As to abortion, it was allowed by the Supreme Court and it seems that the Supreme Court will always have the last Earthly call on that issue. Republicans might have to hold their nose and nominate Rudy and trust that he will nominate strict constructionist judges.
Republicans will have to approach this election with a willingness to pick the electable guy. In a country with 300 million people, everyone is not always going to get exactly what they want.
VoR
McCain would also have applauded the commissioners when they told you to "get a life" on your last weasily, eunuch-like book challenge. What's it like creekbalmy to have zero/zilch influence on ANY commissioner now and that's with your old heartthrob Harris gone!?
4:54 pm--If you want something really revealing about H. Clinton and her past, go to
www.discountbookdistributors.com
and purchase the DVD "Hillary Uncensored".
I have viewed it and it will make you think twice before casting a vote for the woman (I use that term rather loosely).
How can you pick on Hilary Clinton? She is ENTITLED to become the President. She is a Democrat and they are ENTITLED. I hope she gets thumped by Obama. Probably won't happen once the Clinton machine plays the race card.
PWF,
You asked about the focus groups.
They are going well. Outstanding discussion leader and definitely very thorough. Very long days, but well worth it. I’m even more skeptical of some polls after these sessions. Also, it’s unbelievable how the cell phone is distorting poll samples.
Back tomorrow, see you then.
Obama is an impressive man. I can see that he will put much pressure on the established republican party no matter who they nominate. My teenage daughter has never had any interest in politics and she is loopy over the guy.
Voice of Reason says . . .
Is your teenage daughter old enough and registered to vote?
If Hanna Montana was running for president, wouldn't she be just as excited?
VoR
But Stan, how was Frank?
I enjoy watching his results on Fox.
Will your group be on TV? --pwf
Anonymous : I have read the books you have about Hillary.
Add to that the book about Hillary by Bay Buchanan which I liked.
Bay points out many of Hillary's lies. Most revealing to me was the one she told about Chelsea being near Ground Zero at the time of the attack. A blatant lie for which there was no reason to lie.
I believe this a congenital lie by
definition.
I am finishing the book Guiliani right now. Wouldn't vote for him either. He never got race relations right while Mayor. His finest hour was 911 with little else to crow about.
The reduction in New York City crime was because of his first police commissioner who Rudy fired because he was getting more press than Rudy.In fact, the reduction in crime started under Democratic Mayor Dinkins.
Rudy took credit for the reduction in crime, never giving any credit to his police force, never giving them a raise. New York policemen have never gotten over that, they hate his guts.
Not to worry as I don't think Rudy has much of a chance now.
Clayton Ellsworth
People forget that Rudy was HATED in NYC prior to 911. While he led the city through the tragedy he's still the same egomaniac.
PWF,
Frank is all that he's cracked up to be!
To: 12:50 PM
She’s 14. I don’t think Hanna Montana is as popular with her as Obama is. She is sure depressed tonight. We'll use the experience as part of her lessons of growing up.
Stan, saw Frank Luntz twice after the focus groups you attended and he was good. Hope your folks show up. --pwf
In a news conference Deanna Favre announced she will be the starting QB for the Packers in their game this week. Deanna asserts that she is qualified to be starting QB because she has spent the past 16 years married to Brett while he played QB for the Packers. During this period of time she became
familiar with the definition of a corner blitz, and is now completely
comfortable with other terminology of the Packers offense. A survey of
Packers fans shows that 50% of those polled supported the move.
Does this sound idiotic and unbelievable to you? Well, Hillary Clinton makes the same claims as to why she is qualified to be President and 50% of Democrats polled agreed. She has never run a City, County, or State. When told Hillary Clinton has experience because she has 8 years in the white house, Dick Morris stated "so has the pastry chef".
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