Housing Market: Boom or Bust?
“Agent” has raised a very good point on another thread concerning the possible bursting of the local housing market bubble. This could have ramifications to our local economy in several ways.
Give us your thoughts on what you see happening:
What do you think might happen to the housing market next year, and what could be the impact on our local economy?
posted by Blog Master @ 12:01 PM
119 Comments:
Housing decline has not yet hit bottom. Major sellers are laying off sales reps. Construction people are hurting, laying off crews. Some guys are looking for jobs in lower paying, more stable environments. Building permits lowest of the year last month, and will probably be lower this month.
Major builders are offering to lease homes that are not selling. Some are even offering month to month rentals just to get some revenue. I would hate to have the inventory at the old Fairgrounds.
How people are going to make these huge mortage payments with the downturn, I dunno. Glad I don't have to worry about mortgages.
Government has depended on increasing values and on the new properties on the tax roll. I doubt that the property appraiser will lower any property values wholesale, although I have personal knowledge that at least one home value is not at the same level it appraised for six months ago. A realtor told me several days ago the market is down by 15-20%, but most properties are not assessed at the sales prices so I doubt there will be any drop in assessed values.
The decrease in millage rates for the past six or more years has been possible solely because of the increase in total value of the tax roll.
The bottom has not come and probably will not come for perhaps another year. --pwf
Estimated impact fee revenues may miss the boat. Problem: how will it be made up?
Answer: If your question becomes reality, the revenue will not be made up.
The formulas they use in developing impact fees is such that I suspect there will not be a shortfall unless there is a total collapse. Housing starts are down, but commercial developomens is continuing. I just talked with a contractor who told me he is swamped with commercial jobs. January first may be different, he said. --pwf
I checked the value of my home about six months ago and checked it again today. It is down about 8% from my last check on it. Not a real large decline, but the first time it has gone in that direction. If you want a quick and easy way to see how your home value is stacking up, go to:
http://www.zillow.com/
This website (easy to use) provides a good trend line on local property evaluations and my real estate friends tell me it is pretty accurate.
We bought our home 7 years ago and the market value is up 80% to date. Really can’t complain about that, even with some downturn in the market. However, I would hate to be a young person, or someone just relocating here, trying to buy a home in Ocala!
Agent, well said!!!!
Those of us who have been around for a while have lived through several of these cycles in Ocala, and the real estate sales people who have also lived through the cycles weren't in the leased Hummers -- they still drive four or five year old pickups or smaller SUV's.
Reminds me of the Carter Era when interest rates were 15-20% and we had a six percent mortgage. Our S&L Prexy kept writing, offering to refi that $10,000 balance and give us $50,000; pay off the mortgage, and invest the other 40K at 15%.
Only problem was our payments would have gone from $150 a month to $500. We knew we could ALWAYS make a $150 a month house payment even if it meant digging ditches, but might not be able to do the $500 payment, so we passed, and drove older cars, et cetera.
We dont have much, but it is paid off!
God help some of these folks with their huge, huge $700,000 to one million dollar mortgages. Puts me in a cold sweat just thinking of them. -- pwf
By the way, if you have last Sunday's Star Banner . . . Linda Norman's finance column was great talking about planning for a divorce, and how women always want the house and the men keep their retirement and stock. She points out the house every day has some kind of bills to keep it going, while on most dayss, the retirement plans continue to grow. Sure, there will be times of great appreciation of real estate, but then you are faced with finding a new place to live at the same outrageous prices as you sold your last home for, and you start over from ground zero with the tax man! Read her column. Gave me a whole new perspective. --pwf
Yawn. PWF and Agent should start their own blog. Lets call it,
The Politically Longing for the Good Old Days Before We Gifted This Generation With All of Our Screw Ups and Nearly Zero Solutions But Take the Credit for All Things Wonderful.
Yes, and I'm tired of people who offer much in the way of critiques of the "Old Guys" but nothing in the way of solutions. I'm out volunteering (about 1200 hours a year) trying to solve several problems (e.g., health care, parks, city pension plan, etc.)and I see too much CAVE mentality and too little in citizens solving problems.
You give indications of being one of those Citizens Against Virtually Everything (CAVE). Tell us something positive for a change rather than negative comments toward the older generation.
If you are part of the local "younger generation" we (old and young) are going to have to depend on for answers to our problems...then God help us!
Thank you Stan and pwf! You've said what I wanted said so I will not need to post a comeuppance of these CAVE Society members' postings.
CAVE mentality? What the hell are you talking about? The only thing pwf or Agent has to offer is griping about what others offer. THEY have not solved any (?) of our social ills but they sure run people down who may try. Many of us here have caught on to that. Are you blind?
Hey Really Tired of Old Guys".....
Here's the PUFFER (pwf) style for always winning arguments. He is a classic buffoon!
1. Berate your nemesis non-stop. Look what Puffer did to Kurt Kelly! The old man could not, would not......STOP!
2. Berate anyone who disagrees.
3. Denigrate disseneters.
4. Offer tons of "FACTS:.
5. NEVER provide documentation for ANY of your FACTS!!
6. Disappear for a few days.
7. Pop up in another thread like nothing ever happened!
It's not that we dont like this guy or that we really care one way or another. He is soooooooo in love with his own ideas and of course himself. Puffer is a first rate CLOWN and he is at his core simply M-E-A-N and we've had enough.
What a bunch of hypocrites there are on the blog! They want “facts” from PWF, but don’t mind beating on the “old guys” based on NO FACTS.
As Agent states, they know nothing about his contributions and likely little about those of many other Old Folks who participate on the blog. Wonder how many of them donate over 1000 hours of volunteer time like one of the posters to the blog?
This group of “informed bloggers” is depending on the very same technique of criticizing PWF and others that they accuse him of using. Unbelievable!
Whenever someone provides historical perspective coupled with ideas for the future they run into those who know nothing but carping. While I enjoy the banter, I do have another life besides the Blog. My business, my civic work, but most of all, my family come before answering silly attacks. I thought we might get on a new string without antimosity, but *slime couldn't resist, so I will comment on one of its unfounded charges: It was not I who called the asst chief and mayor to get a policeman doing his job reprimanded, nor was it I who appeared in court to get young men released from juvenile after carrying a gun into a lockerroom in absolute violation of school policy and state law and after being charged with attempted robbery with that gun. It was Mr. Kelly using at best extremely poor judgement. nuf said. *Slime can say whatever it pleases. As I have noted, from time to time, I have had professionals on my case, so it's opiniuons matter little to me. Hopefully, back to issues.--pwf
OCALA-SLIM....SOUNDS LIKE A WOMAN SCORNED TO ME. THEY ARE THE WORST KIND. NO MAN IS SAFE, YOUNG OR OLD.
Excellent analysis, Agemt. There is a house down the street from mme that is up for a "silent auction" ith a minimum starting bid $20,000 under the asking price of two months ago.I suspect it will not meet the reserve bid. We are way beyond true value, which, as you say, is set by the market. Buyers are no longer interested at buying at any cost. and foreclosures will be plenty in the enxt few months.
By the way, thanks for your service. We need more doers and fewer comp;lainers.--pwf
pwf; I heard you were at the park groundbreaking today. Where was it? How did it go and is there any type of relationship to the need people have for parks and the housing boom or bust?
I was at the park opening yesterday. The 72 acres is at the corner of CR 316 and US 441, and is an extremely valuable property. There were about 175 or so people there. Contrary to the popular belief of some of my more conservative associates, there is a shortage of places for people to go, such as parks. Young people need to be away from computer games, cell phones, malls et cetera, doing things to make them far more physically active than I am. I spend the better part of the week adjacent to Jervey Gantt Park, and I am amazed at the usage. We should have taken the fairgrounds property and constructed a series of activity parks, and maybe we would not have so many kids getting into trouble if we could get families to work together.
Is there a direct corelation to the housing bubble going south for a while. Porbably not. pwf
I am really with you on the need for parks. We have children and it is an effort to get them out of the house. County parks and recreation activities, like those in the City of Ocala, are a big help to us. For sure, when you look at some of the kids they can use the exercise. We do have pretty good park facilities and need to keep them that way.
Ditto about the use of the Fairgrounds land for parks and recreation activities. A mistake selling it.
Interesting things happening in re: E-1 and their need to have morew modern facilitiues to remaian competitive in a tough market. Letter to the editor Sunday takes the city council and EDC to task for work to get new firms but little effort to keep the ones we have. Should E-1 leave, it will leave a hole that will have a big effect on housing -- lost of people with no jobs and income to pay mortgages.
I'll be interested to hear others point of view on the effort to put a package together to keep E-1. --pwf
And . . . speaking of the city and the way things work . . . .
Hopefully, they will get together with the county on the plan to help provide fire protection to the encleaves that Ocala has created by annexation through the years. The enclaves come when you want to annex but I dont next door, and then someone south of you and south of me want to annex, and finally someone east of me wants to annex to connect to the other properties, and I am in the middle unannexed. If you look at a map of the city you will be amazed at the ragged edges. Somehow, services have to be provided to those enclaves, either by city or county. It's a problem, but Stan McClain and Dan Owen have apparently worked out a plan. --pwf
HOUSING MARKET IS LOOKING NOT SO GOOD. I SMELL A RECESSION.
If I had a hammer la la la
And a concrete mixer, la la la.
Check out this short video showing two state employees stuck on an escalator. They are both working on the project of solving Florida's housing problems!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDv6NdhH5ZY
E-One doesn't have much in the way of options. Where they gonna go if they don't stay in Ocala? We're as low wage an area as you're going to find in the country. Maybe they can pick up and move to Mississippi, but then they have to totally rebuild and retrain their workforce - but it's not much cheaper than here. Not worth the investment. Maybe moving to Mexico might save them. Of course, as much as they've done for the Ocala economy, maybe we owe them a little.
We'll all pony up $12M or they'll be gone faster than you can say corporate blackmail!
It'll be $12M or it's off to NC. E-1 doesn't need to compromise.
I say let E-One move to North Carolina or wherever unless some private groups step forward to keep them here. Let’s see the banking industry, real estate industry, developers, etc. put together a “package” to keep them here. I don’t want government subsidies involved in rewarding a business for poor planning and management. Also, E-One has the financial backing of a large corporate “daddy”. Let the parent use some of its corporate funds outside of Florida to support the local business of E-One.
Our local economy can easily absorb a 1000 or so workers into other jobs. Everyone is always crying about worker shortage. Some workers may even decide to move to N.C. to have a better life than they have in Ocala. Let the free market work without the encumbrance of government handouts to corporate businesses (especially those that are not competing very well).
I'M WITH YOU.
Please do not complain IF and it is a big IF they do decide to go. If they go, there will be knashing and much hand wringing and complains that city, county and state governments "should" have done "something."
Personally, I have always opposed subsidies to keep companies locally, but we have never faced losing such a large segment of the economy. The only thing bigger would be to lose county governemnt, city government, or the school system. Now, those government jobs would create one whale of a hole in our economy! --pwf
Remember all the doomsdayers coming out when Mark VI, or whatever they were called closed?
Oh the horror of loosing 900 jobs!The StubBanner cried for months. The terror from that closing was never felt. Neither will E1. Goodbye and goodluck.
I don’t know if this is the right place for my comment, but since it is related to real estate prices, I’ll go ahead and put it here.
Does anyone feel the School Board is about to get scorched in the potential purchase of the Castro property for a school site? Seems to me paying above the appraised value is not a good move the way things are going with housing and land prices. Based on what Agent and others are saying, maybe the School Board should put the purchase on hold indefinitely, not just until some administrative mistake in the contract language is corrected. Who knows, the price may be even lower than $43,000 an acre in a few more months.
Don
(OTOW)
“TV PROGRAM ON FLORIDA HOUSING CRISIS”
State Senators Mike Fasano, R-New Port Richey and Mike Haridopolos, R-Indialantic will be discussing Florida's housing crisis with a national audience, when they appear on a Thursday special edition of “Lou Dobbs Tonight.”
It will be aired Thursday, Dec. 14th at 7:00 p.m. on CNN.
It's a special town hall forum called: “War on the Middle Class,” airing live from Tampa. Haridopolos will talk about property taxes and Fasano will talk about property insurance.
This might be good. Lou Dobbs can be a tough interviewer.
Why does it surprise you about the dealings with Castro? She was one of Miss Sue's donators. Duh....
Yep, and old Kurty Boy is right in there supporting the purchase also.
A $474 million hit to the local economy and the loss of over 3400 jobs. Not sure we can let that happen. E-One employees tell me that the decision to leave has already been made. So it may be a lost cause and economically not workable to keep them here.
From an article in today’s Star Banner:
Absent other employment opportunities, at least 3,400 jobs would be lost, having a negative impact upon almost 3,000 households, causing a decline in worker wages of $96,000,000 and sales tax collections of about $750,000, the report concluded. While homeowners will still be liable for property taxes, absent employment it will be difficult to pay about $3,500,000 in property taxes.
Of those affected households, an estimated 30 percent are in cities, mostly Ocala, and 60 percent are in Marion County, with 10 percent out of county, according to the report.
(An) EDC-commissioned study says that - in addition to E-One's 1,282 employees who would lose their jobs if the facility closed its doors - 280 of 460 workers for supply vendors would also lose their jobs.
Eventually, the communitywide impact would be an estimated 3,455 jobs.
This isn't about Ocala and jobs or making our city a better place to live. This is about cold hard cash. The highest bidder gets the goods. I agree with the former poster, we'll all get through this ok.
E-One leaving will not be the first situation like this one. Don’t forget how Ocala got Merillat to come here. They were in Ohio and not happy with the efficiency of their operation after being there many years. So they came to Ocala to get a fresh start in a new facility and with new thinking and with local incentives to move here.
I can’t blame E-One. They have an old production technique and have faced several union organization attempts by their “loyal” employees. Maybe it is time for them to also get a fresh start someplace else.
The County Commissioners will be having an E-1 workshop with the City fathers watching on. If E-1 leaves it won't be because the County didn't show leadership. Stay tuned!
I think it is time for a new thread
(yawn)
Blogger:
How about the true meaning of Christmas?
Looks to me like the true meaning of Christmas is going to be shown to E-One!!!
hey anon,
Are you suggesting the city fathers will be to blame for E-one leaving since the county is showing such great leadership?
Agent; Looks like someone at the paper was reading your comments on the housing crisis.
RE:hey anon,
Are you suggesting the city fathers will be to blame for E-one leaving since the county is showing such great leadership?
Nope they're working together along with the EDC. Of course maybe E-1 is just pumping up the local offer to extract more from some out of state city or county.
I agree. Time for a new topic.
I kinda thought there was going to be a topic up about Mr. Kesselring's decision not to run again, and speculation of who will or could run for his seat. Guess not - that's OK.
One savior for the housing market might be to get first-time buyers back in the market again. Right now, renting (even with the large increases in rent) remains a bargain compared with owning. Once this comparison becomes more favorable toward the owning side, housing might pick up. On a national basis, the share of first-time buyers dropped to its lowest level since 1987, acdcording to U.S.A. Today. I doubt Marion County is too different in that trend. The name of the game is “affordable housing” for these first-time buyers. Local teachers and other young professionals are really struggling with the housing problem.
Agent, do you agree?
As to the new blog topic about Andy running for the state house and who for the County Commission here's the skinny.
Andy Kesselring and Kurt Kelly for the State House although some of you will jump on Kurt and say he belongs in the "big house!" Walker will be back to run again and will beat Kurt. Andy loses a tight primary.
Mike Amsden and Jimmy Walton run for County Commission and Mike just may pick off Jimmy. Lots of money in both races and if Sue Mosely should step in (probably not though) she would beat them both in the primary. If she doesn't run any intelligent democrat beats the male republican. Sorry Darlene!
Charlie and Stan both raise gobs of money and beat all challengers.
Pretty good huh pwf?
Mr. Walker will be in Iraq! Unless the President decides to change course over there, Mr. Walker won't be here to run in 2008 - unfortunately for Marion County.
You missed one for Baxley's spot-- Kent Guinn (Ocala Councilman). That will set off an opening in the city.
Tired of high property taxes? Would you rather pay more sales tax? How about 13.5% instead of the current 6%? That's one of the controversial options, among 12, the state should consider as it looks to fix its problem-riddled property tax system, a governor-appointed task force recommended on 12/15/06.
Doing away with all property taxes in favor of a bigger sales tax - was first advanced by House Speaker Marco Rubio, R-Miami, and supported by one of Bush's closest advisers and Rubio's new budget consultant, Donna Arduin. She also serves on the reform committee. State economists predicted the sales tax would need to be about 13.5% to generate enough money to eliminate property taxes. Local option sales taxes would be on top of that.
Would this be a positive for the housing market?
RE: At 9:35 PM, December 15, 2006, Anonymous said...
You missed one for Baxley's spot-- Kent Guinn (Ocala Councilman). That will set off an opening in the city.
How much of Baxley's district falls within the city limits or even the urban service area of Ocala? My take is the City Council members don't have much carry outside of Ocala because their actions impact a smaller and smaller percentage of the districts voters.
Baxley's district covers pretty much all of east and south Ocala. A City Councilman from Ocala (particularly a Republican) is in good shape.
Besides, Walker wasn't exactly the best known candidate and had held no previous elected office. He received 44%.
I wouldn't be writing off any city councilman.
Whats going on with Creekbaum? I've noticed posts appearing and disappearing.
Why don’t the powers to be just go ahead and put in a state income tax on all sources of income? That would sure help solve some of our growth problems and keep more people from coming here. I imagine the house prices would also go down.
Absolutely NO WAY on the 13% sales tax!!!!!
I would vote for the income tax.
Sales tax at 13.5% would hurt those who have the most need for help.
Better run the numbers on your federal income taxes before you jump on the bandwagon for no property tax and a 13.5% state sales tax. When you factor in deductions (gained and lost), this may not be a good deal for all of us.
Saw the editorial today about E one. I have a good friend who has a son working at E one. His supervisors have told him that if he gets an offer for another job, he should probably take it. Think maybe the decision has been made? I hope they don’t leave.
THEY WON'T.
lost our way - what programs/projects would you cut at the county level?
RE: At 11:29 AM, December 17, 2006, Anonymous said...
Saw the editorial today about E one. I have a good friend who has a son working at E one. His supervisors have told him that if he gets an offer for another job, he should probably take it. Think maybe the decision has been made? I hope they don’t leave.
What does your friend's son do? Skilled, semi-skilled or unskilled work?
Lost our way has it right. Every one of the county budgets could be cut by at least ten percent and in some cases, by more.
Back when I wanted to spend all by time digging through budgets, the commission cut more than $7 million that was pointed out to them.
But understand that a cut to me is something that is absolutely, positively, without question a necessity to you and vice versa. I remember when the new library was about to open and they asked for 11 new people (I think it was) and Pat Howard said no way, and the department is functioning in good shape without those extra people.
What Mrs. Fitos will find, as every other commissioner before her, is that they are constantly lobbied by department heads and staff, and they never, ever, ever hear from reasoned people out here.
They do hear from the CAVE Society -- Citizens Against Virtually Everything -- but they almost never hear from individuals who offer their opinions.
That, to me, is one of the areas this blog can help if it becomes a forum for exchange of ideas and not what it has beecome the last few weeks until the blogmaster apparently instituted new "spam" policies.--pwf
Hey Lost Our Way I think what you have to say is great.Where are you when pwf is preaching about all of the money problems the county has. His position is the county needs every red cent of that and MORE. Of course we should cut at least 10% but it ain't gonna happen.
Did anybody hear the EDC commercial playing on 97.3? It's a cold war propaganda piece if I ever heard one! Listen for it and get ready to be fleeced like you've nerver been fleeced before.
Lost Our Way: Good suggestions. However, it would take great political courage to push your ideas forward. Do we have that in our office holders? Not seen it in my lifetime here.
I love the 13.5% sales tax! The answer to our population growth problem. Just tax all these snow birds who rent/live here and watch them high tail it out of Florida. Might also solve some of the tax and spend issues mentioned above.
I don't know if Lower My taxes is playing a prank on us but if it's true it surely pisses me off. The EDC operates on taxpayer money then they go out and spend it to steal more from us. This crap has got to stop.
Lower My Taxes said...
"Hey Lost Our Way I think what you have to say is great.Where are you when pwf is preaching about all of the money problems the county has. His position is the county needs every red cent of that and MORE. Of course we should cut at least 10% but it ain't gonna happen.
"
Sorry friend, but you have me all wrong.
I only explain what the needs are. It is up to you to decide if they are needs that you want to furnish the taxes to solve. I do wish there had been help when I was active in battling the bulge of the budgets for a half dozen years prior to my decision to "get a life" and quit my efforts in July, 2004. But you are welcome to take the place I once occupied and attend all meetings, study all budgets and make your voice heard. --pwf
AGENT (gosh, he is bright!) spoke up the thread, about zero based budgeting.
WOW! What a great idea for Marion County government. Department heads would fight, fight, fight to kill any such idea.
I can not offer any positive evidence other than many years of reading government budgets and covering government, but I would be willing to bet Agent lunch that if implemented, some department heads would find their budgets down by more than 25 percent.
If they had to defend their spending, they might start managing instead of waiting for retirement.
In fact, now is the time for the county to implemet Zero Based Budgeting, since three of the five Bureau Chiefs are in the final stages of their personal retirement planning.
So, as their final management lesson, we could let the Chief scheduled for retirement soonest implement Zero Based Budgeting, and defend how he has been spending money.
How about it Agent . . . let me schedule a lunch with one of the commissioners and let's pitch the idea and see if we can get the ball started. This might be fun for one final charge at government spending before I am just too old!
Maybe we could even get the ole Blog Master to advertise this and help us out.
--pwf
Someone explain zero-based budgeting. Thanks.
Someone asked about my friend’s son at E one. He is a supervisor, has something like a foremans job there.
In simplest terms (and it's not a complicated thing) zero-based budgeting is just that. It starts at zero, rather than just tacking on a percentage increase over what was done last year.
Zero-Base Budgeting is a technique of planning and decision-making. It reverses the working process of traditional budgeting. In traditional budgeting, departmental managers need to justify only increases over the previous year budget. This means what has been already spent is automatically sanctioned. In case of ZBB, no reference is made to the previous level of expenditure. Every department function is reviewed comprehensively and all expenditures rather than only increases are approved. ZBB is a technique, by which the budget request has to be justified in complete detail by each division manager starting from the Zero-base. The Zero-base is indifferent to whether the total budget is increasing or decreasing.
Advantages of Zero-Base Budgeting
Results in efficient allocation of resources as it is based on needs and benefits
Drives managers to find out cost effective ways to improve operations
Detects inflated budgets
Useful for service department where the output is difficult to identify
Increases staff motivation by providing greater initiative and responsibility in decision-making
Increases communication and coordination within the organisation
Identifies and eliminates wastage and obsolete operations.
Disadvantages of Zero-Base Budgeting
Difficult to define decision units and decision packages, as it is very time-consuming and exhaustive.
Forced to justify every detail related to expenditure. The R&D department is threatened whereas the production department benefits.
Necessary to train managers. ZBB should be clearly understood by managers at various levels otherwise they cannot be successfully implemented.Difficult to administer and communicate the budgeting because more managers are involved in the process.
THANKS Wikipedia!!
I would pick the two County departments with the largest budgets and try out the zero base approach for a couple of years to see how it works.
In re: Zero Based Budgeting . . .
Since no government in this area has done it in my tenure here, would it not be a good thing over a period of five years. For instance, since Marion County has five Bureau Chiefs, how about taking one department from each of those five Bureaus each year, and apply ZBB.
From my experience in studying the Park Department starting seven years ago, we found many areas could not be justified, and no one was looking at expenses: at Horseshow Lake, it actually cost more for the maid than the revenue from renting the cottages. After the cottage rental got shut down, the freezer was kept running 24-7. Seems a county official used it to store his game. The outdoor rec dept had full time employees but only limited contact with any campers. The summer camping program had something like 100 camoers for six weeks and three full time employees. That operation was outsourced to Silver River Marine Institute successfully. If I recall correctly, there was a saving of about $80,000 by privitizing mowing operations. My, how things have changed under the new (now four years) Park Director.
In the computer department, we fouln many questionable expenditures and didn't really delve deeply.
I would not like to see a new ZBB budgeting department, but we have a full time budget person on the commission staff (in addition to the county finance department which has an excellent county auditor to review expenditures etc). Taking a single department from each bureau seems reasonable to me. It would be an exhaustive process to do the whole county at one time.
But five departments a year shouldn't be excessive, and would produce results.
--pwf
Paul count me in. In fact I'll buy lunch for everybody who wants to come with us to the meeting and pitch in. If anyone would care to contact me my email address is:
cthurow@yahoo.com
PWF referenced the County Parks budgets. It is my understanding that when Dr. Lee Niblock was hired as the Parks Director, his approach was to address the budget as if they were starting all over. It was a version, probably not purely zero based. However, it did do a very good job of eliminating much of the fluff that had worked its way into the Parks budget over the years through bad management.
The downside is that some of the present and past PELAAC members tell me that the Department may now be a bit “under funded”. I think it would work on a broader and more formal scale throughout the County Departments.
The EDC is trying to convince us that E-One is essential.
Ask the EDC what is the average cost per job ofr the last 5 or 6 EIF/EDC grants was?
Answer .......about $1500. per job.
NOW, Ask the EDC what the average cost per job is for the $13,000,000. requested E-One grant.
Answer, .....hmmmmm lets see...13 million divided by 1300 jobs.
Take this to the bank, even if E-One stays in Ocala in a new factory, they will not need as many employees as they have now. That’s one of the reasons they want to have a newer production building.
Advice for Thurow, stay as far away from Ferguson as you can. He has it out for you.
Some would say that Thurow might have the same feelings toward PF.
Looks to me like they are now finally in agreement on an issue. So bug off! Push forward on the budget discussion.
I hate to be a CAVE type about the zero budget. But I don't see govt. accepting it. It is too much like what a good business would do and that's the first reason it probably wouldn't work!
Anonymous wrote:
"I hate to be a CAVE type about the zero budget. But I don't see govt. accepting it. It is too much like what a good business would do and that's the first reason it probably wouldn't work!"
To my way of thinking, that is why we have elected officials -- to establish policy and direct their administrators to follow it. I do not really care of "government" accepts it. I can assure one way of getting elected officials to accept it -- show up one meeting with say 100 people from all parts of the county making the request. Besides, for God's sake, it makes sense. When you have budgets planned on six or eight percent increases just because the money is there should infuriate everyone with a check book. As you know, when you write the check, the money has to be in the bank. Unfortunately, when they start making these budgets, the various department heads ask for the sky, hoping some of it will stick, and I will promise you there has not been a single department that has lowered its budget in the past dozen years except the parks department when I was harping on it, and then when Niblock showed up he cut even more fluff than I had seen.
As for Parks being underfunded, not so. Not a single service has gone lacking. They have just been on a minor diet. Maybe Lee and I should try that ourselves in the next year.
--pwf
I just heard the EDC ad and have seen the bill board.
I want to see E-1 stay, make no question about that. And I do not know which account EDC is using to pay for the ads, or even if EDC is paying for them. It is likely that private contributions are paying for the ads so there can be "cover" and say no tax money is being used.
If I had to bet, I could bet either way on them staying or going. Our biggest asset in the battle is the work force is already here and trained. I do not like now, nor have I ever liked "bidding" with tax money to get or keep anyone. Some of the proposals I have heard will not pass muster when exposed to the full daylight the Star Banner demands of the hospital, let us say.
And, since we are dealing with city, county and state tax money, why has there not been an outcry from the Star Banner, nay even from, the state attorney for full disclosure and let us know exactly is being proposed. Surely, the Banner will be as interested as they were in harsssing the hospital board, wouldn't you think???? -- pwf
Agent. .. I will get the info tomorrow morning when I get to my office.
Thanks
--pwf
EDC paid for the billboards with EDC budget money. How stupid! Heard General Howard blew a gasket with Pete Tesch because Howard was not informed nor would he have supported such a short-sighted expenditure.
OK Ms. Fitos here’s your big opportunity. You are probably the only Commissioner who has the brains or knowledge of zero budgeting from your extensive (legitimate) business background. Take this idea and run with it. The Democrats have been critical of the big- spender Republicans for years, now there is a chance to do something about it.
As Agent says to us, we need to visit, call, or write our Commissioner and let them know we like the idea.
So what happened at the big BCC pow wow that took place yesterday to SAVE E-one? I can't find anything about it.
Me either! They are about as ESSENTIAL to Ocala as termites are!
Vote "R".....Wishful thinking on both points.
$10,000 per job to save 1300 jobs doesn't sound like much to me. The economy can't stand the loss of these positions.
the county should have no problem what so ever coming up with the money to rescue e-1. just ask each department to spend 3%-4% less this budget year and the problem of e-1 leaving is solved.
$125,000. for a Chevrolet doesn't sound like much to the Chevrolet salesman, either.
I saw something today that really irritates me and brings into question the whole discussion about “corporate welfare” for E – One. Pfizer recently eased out their CEO and he received nearly $200 million to encourage him to leave. Makes you wonder what arrangements E – One and its parent company have in place to take care of their executives. I bet they have similar (maybe not quite as large) agreements to those at Pfizer and many other corporations.
So the question: why can’t they come up with a few million to modernize their Ocala operation? Answer: try to screw the local taxpayer first so that any executive payout money is untouched.
"the county" has no money. The taxpayers have the money and the do gooders donate it for us. Thanks but no thanks. Yeah and the Chevrolet thing, perfect! The Star Bungler sure is being quiet about this.
Here's the real problem. North or South Carolina will be like fresh whores to give anything to E-1 for 900 jobs. Yes, 900 jobs! Those would be new jobs for those corporate raiders to the North. Unfortunately, E-1 can't bargain in good faith with Marion County, Ocala and the EDC because they don't want to confess that their consolidation plans here to move two separate operations under one roof will result in the LOSS of 400 jobs! So do you really think $14 million local tax dollars should be spent to build E-1 a new plant and LOSE 400 jobs to boot!? I hope our local elected officials don't "spread their cheeks" for that type of love affair!
E-1 has no corporate ethics and I say let them go we can't afford them!
That should answer the previous anonymous question on why there was a cancelled negotiation meeting.
Heard on the radio that E-1 just got a big order to make 70 fire trucks. That's great. Now they should be able to afford to rebuild their Ocala plant without needing so much taxpayer money. Early Christmas for E-1 and the taxpayers!
Damn, someone suggests, with either an air of authority, or blissful ignorance, that it is up to $14,000,000.00 and down to 900 jobs. Lets see, 14 million dollars divided by 900 jobs, seems to equal.... about $15,500 dollars per job.
What would you think of your elected official who spent $185,000.00 for a police car?
What has the labor pool done, in the way of concessions, to keep THEIR jobs? What have all the subcontractors done to keep their business relationship?
BTW, who says it is 900 jobs? All I see is 1300 jobs being advertised. What does E-One say? Does Anonymous 6:52 PM, December 22, 2006 know something we don't? Is she/he saying something about the cancelled meeting?
Yes to 900 jobs. The rest of the manufacturing support would be outsourced to satelite industries.
The actual number of jobs after building a new local facility is estimated at 972, versus current E-One employment of 1282. With a new facility, total community wages will also go down to $95 million versus a current of $113 million.
You can see the detailed study at:
www.ocalaedc.org
RE: Anonymous 6:26pm said...
The actual number of jobs after building a new local facility is estimated at 972, versus current E-One employment of 1282. With a new facility, total community wages will also go down to $95 million versus a current of $113 million.
Anonymous 6:26pm, we all need to realize that the EDC is one of three local partners trying to keep E-1 here by working to find $14M for them. Unfortunately, the EDC doesn't have anymore information than what's provided by the very people (E-1) they're negotiating with. 900 future jobs is a realistic estimate just like the 972 number. If I was trying to sell local government with an idea to give away public funds I'd find it in my own self-interest to project the largest number of employees possible.
I think we're being played by E-1 to offer a big pot of money so E-1 can strategically put even greater pressure on the northern suiters. They're as good as gone but it'll be a slow motion train wreck culminating in February or March with the announcement that they're leaving.
Here is the breakdown of the $14.5 million required:
County--$5 million
City of Ocala--$5 million
State--$4.5 million
Seems to me a fair distribution to avoid any one government group taking a big hit.
It is going to take E-One a couple of years to exit, so what are the local employees going to do in the meantime? I would be looking for another job where the employer cared more about me.
Someone suggested the laid off people in downsizing would work for satellite companies. Are these local?
What happens after we give E-One millions, and in three years they fold?
I wonder how many of the employees, who want a corporate bailout, voted against the road tax?
It was narrow minded to vote against the road tax but many of those naysayers were voting their pocketbooks. Now jobs are going to be lost. A recession is when your neighbor is out of work; a depression is when you're out of work!
If E-1 stays because of a government buyout/bailout I insist on a contractual committment from E-1's parent company that they would stay for 20 years or pay all the money back with compund interest.
Did the EDC report provide us with some “Flawed Data”? Here is the letter that was in the Banner that Agent refers to:
“A Second Opinion”
I have read the economic consultant's report paid for by the Ocala/Marion County Economic Development Corp., regarding the potential impact of Emergency One's departure from Ocala.
I do not claim to know what the impact of E-One's departure would be, but I do know the report should not be taken seriously.
First, the author of the report is not an economist. According to his firm's Web site, he studied political theory, communications and journalism in college. One would hope that the author of an economic report would have received economic training.
Second, the report provides little explanation as to the methodology used. A flaw common to many economic impact studies is to underestimate the degree to which new business activity would replace that which would be lost. No explanation is given as to how it was determined that only 15 percent of E-One's financial impact would be replaced by other businesses.
Finally, as a former associate with an economic consulting firm, I know first-hand the environment in which these reports are created. Consultants have to please their employers like anyone else, which eliminates their objectivity and guarantees that their conclusions please the entity signing their paycheck.
As the EDC had already expressed their desire for E-One not to leave, the report's apocalyptic findings were practically predetermined.
I suggest those interested in a reliable estimate of the impact of E-One's departure investigate other resources. For instance, while working on my doctorate at the University of Florida I became familiar with UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The bureau is staffed with highly trained individuals who would provide an unbiased estimate upon which sound policy decisions could be based.
Troy Quast, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Economics Department
Sam Houston State University
Huntsville, Texas
Agent I hope you've made a considerable donation to the cause for keeping E-One here. You can pay my share as well.
agent sounds to me like a welfare loving Democrat to me. Let him and his ilk pay for eone.
lost our way,
I have no connection to E-One, other than a neighbor who works there and I am not that familiar with him.
Agent may be a Democrat, but I doubt he is a welfare loving one. His points of view appear to the conservative side from what I have read.
Agent blurts out, The wealthier have gotten even wealthier because of indiscriminate tax cuts. That tells us all who and what he is.
Looks like Agent hit a sensitive spot with someone about all the corporate welfare the Republicans have supported for the many years they have held the power strings in government. What’s that old saying, the truth hurts!
The truth will set you free Republicans.
Anyone who even considers TAKING money from the taxpayers (you know, people who actually pay taxes) to GIVE to anyone or any group or any business is a welfare lover. I don't care WHAT political party they are a part of. Got it? Any county commissioner who gives E-One anything will be out but THEY know that.
Agent isn't only a welfare lover he's also a bigot to boot.
Maybe he can explain his comment, "off the reservation".
Gosh Agent, I take a few days off and they jump you like they jump me. Seems like people don't like to find out facts to interfere with their predrawn conclusions. I am sure it bothers you just like it bothers me -- not at all. You just consider the source and forget it.
The claim you are a bigot tops it all.
I would love to follow this guy around with a mike like the guy did to George Allen and see just what kind of comments we can pick up when they let their hair down, assuming they have hair.
Wooooops, now, I have offended those who are hair challanged.
Agent, your posts are intellently honest, factually correct, and very interesting. I dont know what will be decided, wether E-1 will stay or not, but I do wish the Star Banner would demand to know what is going on in those secret negoiations between city county and government funded EDC folk. After all, we have a right to know, first ammendment and all.
--pwf
pwf and agent two peas in a pod.
Thank goodness we have folks like them. Too bad we don't have more like them. Too many of you can't come up with good arguments disputing what both of these gentlemen have to say, so you resort to personalizing.
Don
(OTOW)
AFFIRMATIVE!
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